Tuesday Roundup/Gamenight: Caps @ Preds

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And so it begins.

The Caps can't make the playoffs with a great road trip, but they sure as hell can take themselves out of post-season contention if things don't go well. Six games: Nashville, Chicago, Atlanta, Carolina, Tampa and Florida. What do you think - gotta have eight points, at a bare minimum?

The good news is that none of these teams is unbeatable. Nashville lost big at home to the worst team in hockey on Saturday (but then rebounded to beat the League's best team on the road the next day). Chicago is a nice story in the way that the Caps were a "nice story," but here it is mid-March and the Caps are still playing meaningful games while the 'Hawks are optimistically looking towards next year. And, of course, there's the trio of Southeast Division foes, each of whom the Caps have beaten at least twice already this season.

The bad news is that the Caps haven't exactly shone brightly in big games lately. In fact, since the night they triumphantly stood atop the Southeast Division for the first time in years, they've gone a respectable (thanks to the current three-game win streak) 9-6-3, but only 2-3-1 within the Division, and even in some of their wins haven't been at their best.

"It looked like we were afraid to make a mistake instead of, 'Let's go get them,' and play the way we can.... We were tight a little bit out there because of the importance of the game," said Bruce Boudreau of Sunday's game against Boston, but he could just as easily have been talking about any number of games since early February.

Of course, the more cautious play has yielded some impressive defensive numbers, most notably 19 goals allowed in the last 11 games. Cristobal Huet (tonight's starter) is on fire (1.69 GAA, .940 SV% in his last five games; coincidentally, Huet has already faced the Preds this season, stopping 40 shots but losing in a shootout after giving up three late third period goals). Olie Kolzig (tomorrow night's starter) is also on fire (1.20 GAA, .942 SV% in his last four games). And so on. But the Caps need to be more aggressive and less-easily frustrated than they were on Sunday, or else they're going to see nothing but one-fours the rest of the way.

Unfortunately (or maybe fortunately), this sets up as a game in which both teams have every incentive to play a tight, low-risk sixty minutes and then take their chances in overtime or the shootout - the Preds, like the Caps, are within striking distance of eighth place in the conference, but on the outside looking in. Will either team open it up, or will it be a "wink-wink, nudge-nudge, see you in sixty minutes when we each have a point" affair? Tune in to find out.

His seven years of mourning The Intimidator complete, Bobby Joe realized it was his destiny to put his gift of back hair maintenance to further use and start the Marek Zidlicky Fan Club
Elsewhere 'Round the Rinks:

If you missed this Larry Wigge article on Olie Kolzig, unmiss it now.... Should the Caps miss the playoffs, be prepared for six thousand "Can you miss the playoffs and be MVP?" articles like this one.... Speaking of the Hart Trophy, Mike Brophy's top six candidates early yesterday morning were Jarome Iginla, Martin Brodeur, Roberto Luongo, Nicklas Lidstrom, Evgeni Malkin and Vincent Lecavalier. Apparently he had a cup of coffee and came back and remembered that other guy a couple of hours later.... And speaking of brain-dead journos, Pierre LeBrun names ten Coach of the Year candidates, but doesn't list Gabby among 'em.... I sure hope Nicklas Backstrom is mentally ready for tonight's game after no doubt being shaken by this news.... The Top 10 Defensemen of All-Time apparently doesn't include Rod Langway or Scott Stevens.... It'll be "a crying shame if the Washington Capitals don't make the NHL playoffs." Agreed.... Happy 30th Birthday to former Cap Jan Bulis.... Finally, one year ago today we looked at two rumors (one of which more or less panned out - I'll let you figure out which one) and two years ago today we previewed that night's Caps/Kitties match up.

Daily Awards

• Hart: Henrik Sedin (2G, 4 SOG)
  
• Ross: Brent Burns, Sami Salo, Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin, Kevin Bieksa (2 points each)
  
• Norris: Brent Burns (G, A, +1, 5 SOG, 6 hits)
  
• Vezina: Niklas Backstrom (W, 29 saves on 30 shots against)
  
• Richard: Henrik Sedin (2G)
  
• Calder: Daniel Carcillo (G, 21 PIMs... at least he gets the fantasy Calder)
  
• Aiken: Peter Forsberg (0 points, 0 SOG, -2)

Friday Roundup/Gamenight: Caps @ Devils

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Two players skate onto a rink. Player A has 3 goals, 12 assists, 8 PIMs, 78 shots on goal and a minus-1 rating on the year. Player B has 5 goals, 10 assists, 8 PIMs, 32 shots on goal and an even rating on the year. They've each played 27 games, their first 27 for new teams. If Player A is considered a disappointment who is not yet living up to the expectations that come with his $2.5 million per year, what would you call the $3.4 million per year Dainius Zubrus, err, Player B?

What would Zubie do? Apparently not all that much.

Despite a lack of production from their big free agent acquisition, the Devils are appropriately on fire, winning eight straight games and racing towards the top of the Atlantic Division after a dreadful (for them) start. How are they doing it? Goaltending (of course), but also strong special teams and an offense that's been rejuvenated by the return to the lineup of now-captain Jamie Langenbrunner (11 points in ten games). During the winning streak, the Devs are out-scoring opponents by two goals per game (3.5 to 1.5), have connected on 23.5% of their power plays and have killed off 90% of opponents' extra man advantages.

And then there's Zach Parise and his 32 points. Indulge me this moment to cry over spilled milk and what nearly might have been, would you? Thanks. Let's take a quick look back at the middle of the first round of the 2003 Entry Draft:

Each of the guys flanking Eric Fehr has 126 career points. Fehr? Three. Ouch.

Speaking of injuries, the Caps will play tonight without Chris Clark, Boyd Gordon and now Michael Nylander. That's the team's top right wing, top defensive forward (and faceoff guy) and top center. Sweet. Oh, and the three goals Alex Ovechkin has scored in his career against the Devils is the fewest he has potted against any Eastern Conference opponent other than Montreal (against whom he has scored twice; AO also has just three against Pitt and Boston).

All that said, it's time for Alex Semin to start filling the net. Having most of this week off, number twenty-eight has had a chance to both shake off the rust and get healthy. No excuses. Step it up. And bring Viktor Kozlov with you.

Elsewhere 'Round the Rinks:

The organization's injury woes aren't limited to the NHL, as Chris Bourque is Hershey's latest injury (Josef Boumedienne, Dean Arsene and, of course, Fehr are already on the shelf), sidelined with "concussion-like symptoms." That's potentially worrisome for a guy who missed eight games in 2005-06 after suffering a concussion and being "unconscious for 45 seconds while he was carried off on a stretcher."... With the Caps likely to recall someone from Hershey today (could Ben Clymer return to D.C. or will the Motzko Motzko Man era resume?), the Bears have called up Owen Fussey (but hopefully not his acne) from ECHL Columbia.... The hockey world's most famous mullet will be in attendance for tonight's game.... Prior to tonight's game, the Devils will honor Scott Stevens' Hall of Fame induction. It's nice of them to wait until the Caps came to town to do so - or is it just being done now to rub it in our faces? Hmmm.... If you're dying to know what former Cap Yogi Svejkovsky's up to these days, click here....Finally, some Caps trivia: three players have scored 200 goals in a Caps jersey. The first two are easy (Peter Bondra and Mike Gartner). Name the third (hint #1: he scored his 200th for the Caps 14 years ago tonight; hint #2: it's not Svejkovsky). Click here for the answer.

Daily Awards

• Hart: Nik Antropov (3G, including the game-winner, 3 SOG, 4 hits, 2 blocked shots)
  
• Ross: Anze Kopitar (4 points)
  
• Norris: Tom Preissing (2G, including the game-winner A)
  
• Vezina: Johan Holmqvist (W, 23 saves on 24 shots against)
  
• Richard: Nik Antropov (3G)
  
• Calder: Kyle Chipchura (G, 2 SOG, 62% faceoffs won)
  
• Aiken: Jocelyn Thibault (L, 4 goals allowed on 14 shots against in just one period of work)
  

Thursday Roundup

In case you missed it, Boyd Gordon's injury is a broken hand, one that he received during the first period of last Wednesday's Florida game. It should be noted that he played 15:38 in the game and scored in the shootout. With a broken hand. If he was a baseball player, he'd have been carted off the field and shot up with Novocaine in the ambulance on the way to the nearest hospital.

Another note of interest from Tarik's post is Chris Clark's comment that the ice at Verizon Center is the "worst in the League" (a point expounded upon by Vogs). "There's a lot of ruts in the ice," said Clark. "It's soft. It's wet half the time. I could see a lot of injuries coming from the ice there. It could cost [players] their jobs." Or coaches.

As bad as the ice is - and it is awful - is the poor quality of the home sheet showing up in the stats? Maybe. The Caps are averaging 2.25 goals per game at home and 2.40 on the road (over the course of a full season, that's about a six goal differential). That number may seem negligible, but given the opportunity to make the last line change, a friendly crowd, familiar setting, etc., you'd expect a team to be more potent at home (the Bolts, for example, are scoring well over a goal more per game at home than they are on the road). In fact, all but ten teams heading into last night's games were scoring more at home than on the road (insert adultery joke here). So while the differential here doesn't seem like much, the Caps are likely better than a 2.40 goals per game team on a decent sheet of home ice, and those six or more goals over the course of the season could translate into lost points in the standings. Then again, perhaps the ice is slowing down faster, more-skilled teams and the Caps are already getting those "home ice advantage" points.

Another couple of key indicators show the Caps performing better on home ice than on the road - the power play has clicked at 18.0% at home and 15.7% on the road and Alex Ovechkin has scored 10 goals at home (in 12 games) and 10 on the road (in 15). Of course, maybe on a good rink the Caps have a 20+% effective power play... and maybe AO would already be the NHL's leading goal scorer. [Sidenote: after the shootout against Florida last week, I meant to ask AO if the ice condition played any part in his decision to shoot rather than deke in the shootout, but his postgame time with the media was short, so I just let the big dogs eat.]

There's no question that the ice is horrible at the VC and that bad ice puts players' health at risk (and it has probably cost some guys - Clark, Tom Poti and Alex Semin - some games already this year)., but it's also likely costing the Caps on the scoreboard. Don't forget, however, that both teams have to skate on the same sheet, so it's probably saving the Caps a handful of goals against as well. The real question at this point, however, isn't 'what is crappy home ice costing the Caps?' but rather 'when the hell is someone going to do something about it?'

Anyway, on to the question du jour: Viktor Kozlov - boom or bust? He's got one goal since October 8 (a span of 24 games) and has been held shotless in two of his last four games. Still, he's on pace for 45 points, which is only six fewer than he had last year and 20 more than he had two years ago. The odd stat here is that he's on pace to take 43% more shots than last year (237), but score 64% fewer goals (9). Last year was clearly a fluke on the goal front for Kozlov, who tallied a career-high 25 goals (which equaled his total from the previous two seasons), but the points are still coming and, as is the case with Matt Pettinger, so long as he keeps shooting, the goals should come too. In other words, Kozlov may be playing a little bit below expectations, but if you had been hoping for much more from him, you probably weren't all that familiar with his complete body of work. Or am I wrong?

Elsewhere 'Round the Rinks:

Andrew Gordon is back in Hershey and everyone's happy about it.... It was twenty years ago today Sergeant Pepper taught the band to play that Scott Stevens set a club record with five assists in a 10-3 win over the Kings out in Landover. The record would stand for a little more than a year before Mike Ridley would rack up six helpers in a 6-3 win over Chicago. Stevens' five points is still the team's single-game record for points by a blueliner.

Daily Awards

• Hart: Zach Parise (2G, 2A, +3, 8 SOG, 3 hits, 2 blocked shots)
  
• Ross: Zach Parise (4 points)
  
• Norris: Steve Montador (G, 2A)
  
• Vezina: Ilya Bryzgalov (W, 28 saves on 29 shots against)
  
• Richard: Zach Parise, Patrik Elias, Rick Nash, Randy Robitaille, Olli Jokinen (2G each)
  
• Calder: Peter Mueller (G, 2A, +2, 6 SOG)
  
• Aiken: Tomas Vokoun (2 goals allowed on 5 shots against in just 7:10 of work)
  

Back To The Draft Board

The Chicago Blackhawks have won the NHL Draft Lottery and with it, the number one pick overall. By doing so, the 'Hawks leap-frog the Caps (as the Caps had done to them in 2004 when they jumped up two spots to snag Alex Ovechkin), and bump the Caps down to the fifth pick (one spot after the generally-accepted "top tier" cuts off).

The Caps have had mixed results with the number five pick in the past, using it to select Darren Veitch on spot ahead of Paul Coffey in 1980 and grabbing Scott Stevens with that pick in 1982. Here's hoping this year's #5 pick - if the Caps end up using it themselves - ends up more like Stevens and less like Veitch.

A look at #5 picks from the past decade:

• 2006: Phil Kessel, BOS
• 2005: Carey Price, MON
• 2004: Blake Wheeler, PHO
• 2003: Thomas Vanek, BUF
• 2002: Ryan Whitney, PIT
• 2001: Stanislav Chistov, ANA
• 2000: Raffi Torres, NYI
• 1999: Tim Connolly, NYI
• 1998: Vitali Vishnevsky, ANA
• 1997: Eric Brewer, NYI

As JP put it here last year at The Rink, "Sadly this is what bloggers do when their team doesn't make the playoffs."

Organizational Tree Updated

With the help of Marshall and others, I've updated the Organizational Tree to reflect where the Caps got their additional draft picks (i.e. those that weren't theirs based on the standings or lottery results). It required adding another root and confirms that Scott Stevens is in many ways the grandfather of the modern day Caps.

Here it is (click to enlarge), and check back often as it will be updated as needed:

Scott Stevens: The Most Effective Draft Choice In Caps History?

Eric Duhatschek has a great post up over at the Globe and Mail posing the question "What was the single most effective draft choice in NHL history?" He asserts that "it was the Atlanta Flames’ decision to select Kent Nilsson in the fourth round, 64th overall, in the 1976 entry draft." Why? Basically because Nilsson was a highly-effective player (in the regular season) who was eventually traded for the picks that became Joe Nieuwendyk and Stephane Matteau! Matteau! Matteau!. Nieuwendyk, in turn, was later traded for a young Jarome Iginla. Now that's getting some mileage out of a single pick.

The question got me to thinking about who was the single most effective pick in Capitals history. Off the top of my head, I'd have to say it was Scott Stevens, selected in the first round, fifth overall in 1982. Stevens' arrival in D.C. helped to usher in the greatest era of Capitals hockey to date (zip it), as the Caps didn't miss the playoffs once in Stevens' time in D.C. and three times topped 100 points in the standings. Stevens averaged .71 points per game for the Caps and is still second on the team in career points by a defenseman (Calle Johansson is first).

Whether or not St. Louis's offer to then-restricted free agent Stevens should have been matched is open to debate, but it was not matched and the Caps received five picks as compensation in return. Two of those picks - Sergei Gonchar and Brendan Witt - became mainstays on the Caps' blueline for nearly a decade, and were instrumental in the team's Stanley Cup Finals appearance in 1998. Another - Miika Elomo - was traded along with a fourth round pick to Calgary for the second round pick that became 20-goal-scoring winger Matt Pettinger.

Gonchar was traded to Boston in the great player dump of '03 and in return the Caps received Shaone Morrisonn (who is arguably their steadiest defenseman right now) and first and second round picks in 2004 that have turned into prospects Jeff Schultz and Michael Yunkov.

Witt was traded to Nashville at last year's trade deadline for the Caps' current second-line center, Kris Beech, and the first round pick last summer that became top goaltending prospect Semen Varlamov.

There's still a lot of upside to be had from that initial pick, and there is no doubt that Scott Stevens is the gift that keeps on giving for the Caps.

(cross-posted at SeSo)