Stat Of The Day

Via Simply Sensational: "Since the beginning of the 2007-2008 season, when one of [Donald Brashear, Boyd Gordon or Matt Bradley] scores a goal, the Capitals are a combined 18-0-1."

Monday Roundup/Gamenight: Caps @ Devils

The Caps will be in Jersey tonight to take on the Devils and their new tough guy (and if you're a N.Y. area Caps fan planning on attending, make sure to check in with Pepper), but rather than attempt to preview the relatively meaningless game, I thought I'd run a few numbers by you from last season, namely a break down of home and road plus/minus.

While plus/minus may be a somewhat silly stat to begin with, it's nevertheless interesting to take a look at some anomalous results in the home/road splits of last year's Caps. For example, both Alex Ovechkin and Viktor Kozlov were both plus-28 overall, with much of that coming on the road (+18 for Ovi, +19 for Kozlov). Is it odd that they'd be so much more successful in buildings in which opponents could more easily get their top defensive forwards out against the Caps' top line? Perhaps (though it should be noted that among the NHL's top ten scorers, half of them had a better plus/minus on the road, including Ilya Kovalchuk, who was somehow a plus player away from home). And is it odd that the center on that Ovechkin-Kozlov line for most of the season, Nicklas Backstrom, has a much better home plus/minus (+11 to +2)? Under Glen Hanlon (i.e. before being promoted to the top line), Backstrom was minus-four on the road and minus-one at home. Not a single member of the Caps' top trio had a home/road point differential greater than Kozlov's four.

How about a glance at defensive pivots? David Steckel and Boyd Gordon had similar roles for most of last season, and yet Steckel was plus-seven better at home and Gordon was plus-seven better on the road. Gordon's split makes sense - at home he'd often match up against opponents' top offensive threats, whereas on the road, he'd often face lesser talent - and so does Stecks', I think - as the fourth-line center on most nights, he was used more sparingly and in favorable spots at home, while teams could more easily take advantage of Steckel and his wingers on the road (though Gordo actually had lower quality linemates on the year).

On the blueline, the splits that stand out are Shaone Morrisonn's and Tom Poti's. The two played the 3rd and 4th most even strength minutes on the team last year, but had opposite splits, with Mo posting being plus-ten better at home and Poti finishing plus-13 better on the road (and each man's partner had a similar, albeit less drastic, split). Perhaps Morrisonn's differential can be explained by the desire to get Mike Green out against lesser talent at home and to utilize the Poti-Jeff Schultz pairing against opponents' top threats... but if that were the case, you'd expect the latter duo to have a higher quality of competition than the former pair, which was not the case (though it's close). Or perhaps the numbers were just a fluke.

The bottom line here is... well, there isn't one. It's a lot of correlation with little in the way of causation. You can come up with a theory to explain any of these splits and convince yourself of their validity, but, at the end of the day, plus-minus is still somewhat devoid of rhyme or reason. How else to explain that of the top 31 plus/minuses in the NHL last season, 15 players had a better number at home and 15 were better on the road (Ryan Getzlaf was +16 both home and on the road)?

All that said, who's got a theory on any of these that they want to throw out there?

Elsewhere 'Round the Rinks:

Vogs has the translation of an interview with Simeon Varlamov that's worth checking out.... TSN.ca's Caps preview might be garbage, but at least you could remove the team and player names and still know which of the NHL's 30 squads was being previewed, unlike with this turd.... Speaking of lazy writing, Yahoo! (Ross McKeon, I presume) offers up the following analysis: "Viktor Kozlov was a crucial late season pickup by GM George McPhee. Kozlov served as a great team leader, especially for the Russian kids, and he’ll do more of the same this year." Sergei Fedorov had a similar impact.... Apparently everyone seems to think that winning the Southeast Division is the Caps' "divine right." And here I thought they were the favorites because they've put together the best roster, have the best coach and the best player in the SED.... Add Justin Taylor to the list of players sent back to juniors who had a hell of a time at rookie camp (and he's just about the only London Knight scoring these days).... And add another chapter in the Boudreau storybook.... Finally, a question for the group based on this article (and h/t to PPP) - would you rather the team you follow win one Cup and then stink for a decade or be consistently competitive with the possibility (but no guarantee) of a Cup over the same time period?

Caps Extend Steckel

Per the team.

Somewhere, Boyd Gordon's sphincter just puckered.

Caps Re-Sign Gordon

One year, $725,000. Money well-spent.

I Was Told There'd Be No Math On This Exam

When you saw that this was Camp Week, you probably thought it would be all fun and games - a little bit of this, a little bit of that. Little did you know that you'd would be heading to summer school (like Joe Finley, who is not hitting the books this month due to eligibility issues, contrary to rumor).

Now, I admit that this week has been a little stat-heavy in this corner of the interwebs, but I like to keep you guys as smart as can be, so here's another lesson entitled "You Want To Let Boyd Gordon Go? Are You Nuckin' Futs?"

By way of background, I've seen it suggested that Gordo might be one of the odd men out up front come Fall and that he's possible trade (or even waiver) bait to alleviate some of the current (small "c") cap concerns. To me, the former assertion would be a terrible mistake and the latter makes no sense whatsoever, and you'll see why below.

On Wednesday we noted Gordon's Selke credentials and we discussed his all-around game in depth when his Rink Wrap came up, but his defensive contribution alone doesn't tell the full story of his value to the team, so let's look at how he stacked up against the rest of the team's forwards in 2007-08 (for the purpose of this exercise, only returning forwards who played a significant number of games and only games played for the Caps are considered).

The first stat we'll look at is player contribution, per Hockey Analytics (defined in this PDF, with data taken from this document). To level the games played playing field, these numbers are on a per game basis:

No surprise at the top, and really not a terribly surprising order overall, though you'd have hoped your $4 million/38-year-old center would have rated a little higher (and I still maintain that Donald Brashear at $1.2 million this coming season is the worst contract on the team, but that's another topic for another day).

It's worth noting that Gordon's entire contribution was defensive, which isn't surprising either, but a goal prevented is equal to a goal scored in this analysis, as it should be, theoretically (other even or negative contributors offensively were Brashear and David Steckel, while only Alex Semin, Michael Nylander and Brashear were on the wrong side of the ledger in terms of defensive contribution).

Next stat? Quality of teammates five-on-five. Behind The Net describes the problem ("[One]weakness of the plus/minus statistic in the NHL is that it is depends on a player's linemates - just ask anyone who ever played with Mario Lemieux.") and defines this metric ("We can address this problem by calculating the average Behindthenet rating of a player's teammate when he's on the ice.). Basically, it's just a look at who's skating with top talent and who's out there with grinders:

Things get a little more interesting here, and you can immediately see how lost the second line was for much of the season with Semin missing time, without a real solid, healthy playmaking center for much of the year as Nicklas Backstrom acclimated himself to North America (then promptly got promoted to the top line) and Nylander fought injuries, and with Tomas Fleischmann facing a significant talent deficit. You also see that part of Eric Fehr's struggles may be attributable to his linemates (though this is certainly a chicken-or-the-egg situation).

Back to Gordon, other than brief stints on the second line, Gordon got almost exclusively checking-line duties last year and lined up with other grinders. He also got 19 seconds of power-play time per game. Point being, whereas some players benefited from extra-man time and skating with Alex Ovechkin, Mike Green and the team's other top skill players, Gordon wasn't afforded that opportunity (nor should he have been, mind you - just stating a fact).

Since we looked at who skated with whom, let's look at who skated against whom - quality of competition five-on-five. Again we turn to Behind The Net to describe the problem ("One of the weaknesses of the plus/minus statistic in the NHL is that it is highly-dependent on who a player plays against. A forward assigned to check Jaromir Jagr will have a harder time keeping the other team off the scoreboard than a player who lines up against the other team's fourth line.") and to define the metric ("We can address this problem by calculating the average Behindthenet rating of the opposing players who are on the ice."):

This tells us that the Ovechkin line (with either Swedish pivot) faced the opponents' best (certainly just about every time the stepped on the ice in someone else's barn), and that Gordon drew the toughest assignments defensively when the opportunity presented itself. It's interesting how bunched the Caps forwards are here, though. The spread for Wings forwards, for example, ranged from 0.13 (Henrik Zetterberg) to -0.22 (Aaron Downey), and Ovechkin - the Caps' leader - only faced the 123rd toughest competition among NHL forwards who played 40 or more games (thanks in part to playing so many intra-divisional games and in part to not having to play against Alex Ovechkin).

Finally, we get to the pay off. We've seen who has (and hasn't) contributed. We've seen who has skated with and against whom. But what about the contribution per salary cap dollar? Based on 2008-09 cap hits (projected for Gordon) and 2007-08 stats, here's your "bang for the buck" - player contribution per game, per dollar:

You can see that there are bargains to be had if some of the teams cheaper wingers get better, and you'd hope that a few of the pricey vets at the bottom start doing a little more for the big bucks they're receiving, but seeing Boyd Gordon at the top and considering his raw contribution-per-game number makes you realize just how valuable the longest-tenured member of this Caps team really is. A player like Gordon - at a price like Gordon's - is incredibly difficult to replace in a salary capped league, and to think otherwise is done at the thinkers own peril.

* Why use last year's stats and this year's salary? Because for many of these guys it's the same, and for others, last year's performance determined this year's salary.

In Defense Of Jose, The Defense In Front Of Jose

The late 20th century philosopher Kilo Ali famously noted that "The playas gon' play, Them haters gonna hate."

While Ali couldn't have had Jose Theodore in mind when he penned those words of wisdom, they certainly apply - Jose's going to play his game and people are going to criticize him (though I believe you and I have yet to reserve our seats on Le Petit Poulet Bandwagon).

But while how far and in which direction Theodore varies from the median NHL goaltender is of some importance, something that is being widely overlooked is just how good the team defense behind which Theodore will play is becoming.

I mentioned it yesterday, but as no one wanted to wade into the murky statistical waters with me, I'm going to repeat it and expound upon it today: Statistically, the Caps had the best team defense in the Eastern Conference.

If you want to know how this determination is happened upon, take a look at pages 8 through 11 of Allan Ryder's 2008 NHL Review (PDF), but it basically comes down to a combination of shots allowed (the Caps gave up the third fewest in the Conference at 27.5, with a 27.0 average under Bruce Boudreau) and the quality of those shots (the Caps lead the Conference in defensive shot quality; see Ryder at p.8).

The obvious question, then, is "If the team defense was so good, why was the team goals against average so mediocre?" You know the answer to that one - it was the goaltending itself. The Caps got the second worst contribution from its goaltender in the League (see Ryder at p.12). Only Tampa got less from their netminders over the course of the season (Colorado, for the record, was in the middle of the pack, though one of their goaltenders was somewhat better than the other). No goalie in the NHL who played more than 51 games gave up more 5-on-5 goals per sixty minutes of ice time than Olie Kolzig did, and no goalie who played more than 36 games gave up more 4-on-5 goals per sixty than Kolzig (but we're all sure he "can still be a dominant goalie in the NHL.")

So what makes the Caps' team defense so good? A few stats from the forwards jump out:

• Boyd Gordon made the sixth-largest defensive contribution of any forward in the League. Viktor Kozlov was ninth (thanks to the second-largest even strength contribution of any forward) and David Steckel 16th (see Ryder at p.21).
• Further to the point on Kozlov, he had the seventh-best 5-on-5 plus/minus on-ice per sixty of any forward in the League (min. 30 games played). You're making a huge mistake if you don't think Kozlov is valuable to this team.
• The Caps were ninth overall in team faceoff percentage, and if Sergei Fedorov returns, the team will have three pivots who won better than 55% of their draws in 2007-08.
  

In D.C., the best defense is sometimes a strong offense, and when you throw two (or three?) scoring lines out there with a couple of the best defensive forwards in the game thrown in the mix and an emerging blueline - Mike Green had the sixth-largest overall contribution of any NHL blueliner (see Ryder at p.23), Jeff Schultz is a combined +37 in two professional seasons, Karl Alzner is widely regarded as the top defensive prospect not yet in the NHL... and none of those players is yet 23 years old - you've got the makings of a very good team at both ends of the ice.

Taking all of the above together, two main points emerge. First, Bruce Boudreau gets plenty of credit for his work igniting the Caps' offense (and rightly so), but not nearly enough for his impact on the team's defense - a truly deserving Jack Adams Award winner if there ever was one. The fact that there aren't any individual defensive statistics from the blueliners that jump off the screen as contributing to the team's stout overall defense is a testament to Gabby's defensive scheme.

Second, and this is where Jose Theodore re-enters the blog post, when you consider how good the Caps' team defense was last year (far better, incidentally, than Joel Quenneville's Avalanche team D was) and how atrocious Olie Kolzig was, you can see how a decent (but by no means elite) netminder like Cristobal Huet was able to come in and put up the ridiculous numbers that he did (11-2-0/1.63/.936). This team has the ability - even with its Milan Jurcinas and John Erskines - to make goalies look good.

The bottom line is that with the probable returns to the lineup of defensively responsible forwards Sergei Fedorov and Chris Clark, a year's maturation of the team's young players and a full year of Bruce Boudreau behind the bench, the Caps are poised to become something few would have expected - one of the better defensive clubs in the League. And that can't do anything but help the new guy between the pipes.

In Case You Were Wondering Redux

Now that Steve Eminger is gone, your new longest-tenured Cap:


Gordo skated his first game for the Caps on Opening Night, 2003, centering Jaromir Jagr (strong line combo, Butch - we're all shocked it didn't work out for you).

The Final Numbers Are In...

OK, one last post on awards voting, I promise.

In addition to the numbers I told you about last night, here are a few more vote totals:

• Alexander Ovechkin finished ninth (8-4-1-0-2) in voting for the Lady Byng Trophy and 29th (0-0-2-1-1) in Selke Trophy voting;
• Nicklas Backstrom finished 72nd (0-0-0-1-0) in voting for the Lady Byng Trophy and 66th (0-0-0-0-1) in Selke Trophy voting;
• Viktor Kozlov finished 26th (0-0-3-0-0) in voting for the Lady Byng Trophy and 25th (1-0-0-2-0) in Selke Trophy voting;
• Boyd Gordon finished 49th (0-0-1-0-0) in Selke Trophy voting; and
• Sergei Fedorov finished 66th (0-0-0-0-1) in Selke Trophy voting.

Mirtle promises to have much more on the voting breakdown later, but this shows how silly open ballot/write-in voting can be.

An argument can be made (maybe not a strong one) that Ovechkin is one of the top 29 defensive forwards in hockey. He was, after all, fifth among all forwards in plus/minus, ninth in takeaways and sixth in hits. Might Backstrom be the 66th-best defensive forward in the game? Sure. He was sixth in takeaways and had fewer giveaways than Pavel Datsyuk or Henrik Zetterberg.

But while the end result may not be completely outlandish (ok, Kozlov at 25th is), the more ridiculous part is not where they finished in the voting as much as the fact that multiple voters had a guy like Ovechkin - who got all of nine seconds of shorthanded time per game - in their top five. One writer thought that Viktor Kozlov was the best defensive forward in hockey this past season... or at least voted that way (and there are plenty of examples League-wide of this silliness, of course, but these are the handful I happen to give a crap about).

Bottom line: the NHL needs to come up with a list of, say, ten players for each award, mail out ballots with those names on them and force voters to select from that list. It'll make the final results more meaningful and the awards more reflective of the individual accomplishments they're intended to reward. But if the NHL is cool with a voter ostensibly thinking that Jiri Hudler was the fifth best defensive forward in hockey in 2007-08, they might as well leave things the way they are.

2007-08 Rink Wrap: Boyd Gordon

From Backstrom to Steckel, we're taking a quick look at and grading the 2007-08 season for every player* who laced 'em up for the Caps during the campaign (and is still with the team) with an eye towards 2008-09. Next up, Boyd Gordon.

Contract Status: RFA; 2007-08 salary of $650,000
Age (as of October 1, 2008): 24
NHL Seasons (including 2007-08): 2+
2007-08 Regular Season Stats: 67 games played, 7 goals, 9 assists, +5, 12 PIMs
Key Stat: Gordon was second on the Caps and ninth in the NHL with a 55.8% win rate.
Surprising(ly weak) Stat: Gordon had eight points in January but failed to record multiple goals or assists in any other month.

The Good: Gordon tied his career-high in goals (in four fewer games played and with four fewer shots taken), but he'll never make a team for his offense. What Gordon brings to the table is his ability in the faceoff circle (see above) and sound defensive play - he was on the ice for the fewest goals against per sixty minutes of ice time of any Cap who played at least forty games (which is saying something, considering that he led the Caps in shorthanded ice time per game and was second among all NHL forwards in that category) and had a team-best takeaway-to-giveaway ratio of nearly 2:1 while having the fewest giveaways per minute of ice time on the squad. Furthermore, considering the defensive assignments he was given on a nightly basis, the fact that he finished 18th in the League in fewest penalties taken per sixty minutes of ice time is damn near miraculous (he only had 2 PIMs in 42 games spanning from December through March!). After returning from a fractured hand in late December, Gordo finished the season up with five goals, seven assists and a plus-6 rating in 45 games.

The Bad: While he tied his career-high in goals, his assist dropped by 13 from the previous season in roughly the same amount of ice time per game. Gordon had the second-fewest hits per minute of ice time on the team (Michael Nylander, for good reason, had the fewest) and was only credited with 19 hits all season (Tomas Fleischmann had 37% more... ouch).

The Vote: Rate Gordon on a scale of 1-10 (10 being the best) based on his performance relative to his potential for the season - if he had the best year you could have imagined him having, give him a 10; if he more or less played as you expected he would, give him a 5 or a 6; if he had the worst year you could have imagined him having, give him a 1.

The Questions: What role do you see Gordon playing on the 2008-09 Caps? What will it take for him to earn a 10 rating next year?

If you've missed any of the previous 2007-08 Rink Wraps, click here, get caught up, and vote - polls will stay open for a while.

* And by "every," we mean every one who played more than just a handful of games.

Friday Roundup/Penguins 4, Caps 3 (OT)

[AP Recap - Box Score - Super Stats]

Well that sure was a punch in the gut.

The Caps came into last night's game tired, having played the night before. The Pens entered the game rusty, having not played since before the Christmas break. Predictably, the game was ugly. Equally predictably, the tired team got more tired and the rusty team got less rusty. And while it's difficult to pin a loss like this on a coaching decision, you've got to question Bruce Boudreau sending Brooks Laich out to take the defensive zone faceoff at the end of the Pens' power play late in the third. Laich was 1-for-4 in his faceoffs up to that point (48.1% on the season entering the game) and lost the draw to Erik Christensen that Darryl Sydor sent bouncing off Milan Jurcina and into the goal to tie the game. The right call would have been to call a timeout and send Boyd Gordon back back out there for the draw. It would have meant Sidney Crosby in the dot for the Pens rather than Christensen, but Sid was only at 42% for the night and, more importantly, 0-for-3 against Gordon. The result may very well have cost the Caps a point and handed the Pens two, and the Caps simply can't afford a three-point swing like that in the Conference.

Some more thoughts on a heartbreaking loss:

• Initial reports had Alex Ovechkin out for a week with a cut on his inner thigh, but GMGM said he won't miss a game. We shall see.
• Brent Johnson is out two-to-four weeks. Maybe the Caps should sign this guy to back up Olie Kolzig for the next stretch.
• Sergei Gonchar giveth, and Sergei Gonchar taketh away. Classic Gonch.
  
• Nicklas Backstrom is so... effing... good (despite his misplay at the point that led the the Jeff Taffe goal).
• Thanks to our buddy Hooks Orpik for passing along this vid of his pregame ritual. Good stuff.
• From the "Stats can be misleading" file, Viktor Kozlov led the team with a plus-two rating.
• Donald Brashear had a very effective night overall, as did Olie in relief of B.J.

Frankly, it's a hard recap to write after that game, so feel free to throw your thoughts out there on the game and where the team goes from here (other than "Ottawa").

Elsewhere 'Round the Rinks:

Even fancypants political commentators know that Wednesday night's crowd was awesome.... Sidney Crosby needs help. Clearly.... Vote Weagle!

Daily Awards

• Hart: Ville Koistenen (Game-winning goal, 2A, +3, 7 SOG)
• Ross: Eric Belanger, Ilya Kovalchuk, Ville Koistenen, Marek Zidlicky (3 points each)
  
• Norris: Ville Koistenen (Game-winning goal, 2A, +3, 7 SOG)
  
• Vezina: Niklas Backstrom (W, 46 saves on 48 shots against)
  
• Richard: Ilya Kovalchuk, Joffrey Lupul, Bill Guerin, Valtteri Filppula, Nathan Horton (2G each)
  
• Calder: Nicklas Backstrom (2A, 67% faceoffs won, 3 takeaways, 0 giveaways)
  
• Aiken: Miikka Kiprusoff (L, 5 goals allowed on 20 shots against)
  

Thursday Roundup

In case you missed it, Boyd Gordon's injury is a broken hand, one that he received during the first period of last Wednesday's Florida game. It should be noted that he played 15:38 in the game and scored in the shootout. With a broken hand. If he was a baseball player, he'd have been carted off the field and shot up with Novocaine in the ambulance on the way to the nearest hospital.

Another note of interest from Tarik's post is Chris Clark's comment that the ice at Verizon Center is the "worst in the League" (a point expounded upon by Vogs). "There's a lot of ruts in the ice," said Clark. "It's soft. It's wet half the time. I could see a lot of injuries coming from the ice there. It could cost [players] their jobs." Or coaches.

As bad as the ice is - and it is awful - is the poor quality of the home sheet showing up in the stats? Maybe. The Caps are averaging 2.25 goals per game at home and 2.40 on the road (over the course of a full season, that's about a six goal differential). That number may seem negligible, but given the opportunity to make the last line change, a friendly crowd, familiar setting, etc., you'd expect a team to be more potent at home (the Bolts, for example, are scoring well over a goal more per game at home than they are on the road). In fact, all but ten teams heading into last night's games were scoring more at home than on the road (insert adultery joke here). So while the differential here doesn't seem like much, the Caps are likely better than a 2.40 goals per game team on a decent sheet of home ice, and those six or more goals over the course of the season could translate into lost points in the standings. Then again, perhaps the ice is slowing down faster, more-skilled teams and the Caps are already getting those "home ice advantage" points.

Another couple of key indicators show the Caps performing better on home ice than on the road - the power play has clicked at 18.0% at home and 15.7% on the road and Alex Ovechkin has scored 10 goals at home (in 12 games) and 10 on the road (in 15). Of course, maybe on a good rink the Caps have a 20+% effective power play... and maybe AO would already be the NHL's leading goal scorer. [Sidenote: after the shootout against Florida last week, I meant to ask AO if the ice condition played any part in his decision to shoot rather than deke in the shootout, but his postgame time with the media was short, so I just let the big dogs eat.]

There's no question that the ice is horrible at the VC and that bad ice puts players' health at risk (and it has probably cost some guys - Clark, Tom Poti and Alex Semin - some games already this year)., but it's also likely costing the Caps on the scoreboard. Don't forget, however, that both teams have to skate on the same sheet, so it's probably saving the Caps a handful of goals against as well. The real question at this point, however, isn't 'what is crappy home ice costing the Caps?' but rather 'when the hell is someone going to do something about it?'

Anyway, on to the question du jour: Viktor Kozlov - boom or bust? He's got one goal since October 8 (a span of 24 games) and has been held shotless in two of his last four games. Still, he's on pace for 45 points, which is only six fewer than he had last year and 20 more than he had two years ago. The odd stat here is that he's on pace to take 43% more shots than last year (237), but score 64% fewer goals (9). Last year was clearly a fluke on the goal front for Kozlov, who tallied a career-high 25 goals (which equaled his total from the previous two seasons), but the points are still coming and, as is the case with Matt Pettinger, so long as he keeps shooting, the goals should come too. In other words, Kozlov may be playing a little bit below expectations, but if you had been hoping for much more from him, you probably weren't all that familiar with his complete body of work. Or am I wrong?

Elsewhere 'Round the Rinks:

Andrew Gordon is back in Hershey and everyone's happy about it.... It was twenty years ago today Sergeant Pepper taught the band to play that Scott Stevens set a club record with five assists in a 10-3 win over the Kings out in Landover. The record would stand for a little more than a year before Mike Ridley would rack up six helpers in a 6-3 win over Chicago. Stevens' five points is still the team's single-game record for points by a blueliner.

Daily Awards

• Hart: Zach Parise (2G, 2A, +3, 8 SOG, 3 hits, 2 blocked shots)
  
• Ross: Zach Parise (4 points)
  
• Norris: Steve Montador (G, 2A)
  
• Vezina: Ilya Bryzgalov (W, 28 saves on 29 shots against)
  
• Richard: Zach Parise, Patrik Elias, Rick Nash, Randy Robitaille, Olli Jokinen (2G each)
  
• Calder: Peter Mueller (G, 2A, +2, 6 SOG)
  
• Aiken: Tomas Vokoun (2 goals allowed on 5 shots against in just 7:10 of work)
  

Semin "Healthy"; Clark And Gordon? Not So Much

This news is less than optimal.

Thursday Roundup/Gamenight: Isles @ Caps

[AP Preview - WashingtonCaps.com Preview]

We all know what the Caps have been up to since they left Long Island last Monday, but in case you haven't been following the Isles too closely, they beat the Rangers, got pasted by the Leafs (with their backup 'tender in net) and lost to the Flyers. In fact, in each of the Islanders' last four games, the losing team scored only one goal, so getting off to a quick start at home will likely key for Glen Hanlon's crew, who will try to avoid showing any of the rust that plagued them in Manhattan last week after a similarly long lay off between games.

The Isles have made some personnel moves as well in the past week-plus, as they got Chris Simon back from suspension, signed power play quarterback/defensive liability Bryan Berard, and officially lost Cap-killer Jon Sim for the year to a knee injury. Their special teams have been very good, but, lo and behold, there they are with the same number of wins as the Caps (three) in one more game (interestingly, the Isles' three wins have come against the only two teams that have beaten the Caps in this young season, the Rangers and Sabres).

But enough about the visitors, let's talk about tonight's home team.

We all know that the injury bug has already paid a visit the Caps, and while it may not have hit too hard (yet), it has struck with surgical precision. For my money, aside from Olie Kolzig, Alex Ovechkin, Boyd Gordon may be the most important player on the team. In his absence, shots on goal against are way up and penalty-killing efficiency is way down (from perfect). Sure, the competition in Boyd's absence was better than it was in the games he has played, but his role on the team shouldn't be under-estimated, let's just leave it at that. Gordo may go tonight, but with Sid and the Pens coming up next, it's critical that he's as close to 100% as possible for Saturday night.

Also gumming up the works is the lingering Alex Semin ankle injury. Losing their number two scoring threat has hobbled the Caps' offense and left them with a pair of playmakers without a finisher which, in turn, allows opposing teams to key on the top line (on which the right wing du jour has been largely freeloading each night). The result has been a revolving door of wingers on each of the top two lines and tonight might very well see Joe Motzko and Tomas Fleischmann as the right wings on those units. Eric Fehr's chronic hip/back injury certainly is a notable part of this discussion as well, but the fact of the matter is that whether it's Motzko, Flash, Matt Bradley, Brooks Laich or whomever else Hanlon might throw out there does not belong on an NHL scoring line until they prove otherwise. Well, fellas, here's that chance (and for some of you, it may be your last).

On the blueline, the team has recalled Jeff "wake-up call" Schultz and he'll likely get a sweater in John Erskine's place tonight. Erskine looked awfully slow this past weekend and was on the ice for five of the ten goals the team allowed (and not a single one they scored). Brian Pothier - because I'm sure you were about to ask, "What about Pothier?" - was on the ice for three of the ten. Big John was definitely playing some tough minutes, but the way he was playing against some speedy and talented wingers, every minute was tough. Is Sarge better-suited for this duty? I guess we'll see.

Anyway, I'll be in the press box for the game tonight and down in the room after, so if there's anything you want me to ask about, let me know and I'll try to get some answers.

Why The Islanders Will Win:

We're debuting a new feature here at The Rink today that aims to shed some gameday light on the perspective from "the other side." To that end, we went out and asked some of the Isles bloggers why their squad would win tonight, and here are some of the responses we got:

"The Isles will win Thursday because Hillary Duff is hotter than anything Viktor Kozlov can pull. Isles over Caps 4-2." - The 2 Man Advantage

"Considering how sloppy the Isles have been on both offense and defense the past three games, Rick DiPietro looks primed for a game-stealing performance against Washington. Every time the team looked done for last season, DP always picked them up. Against a promising, revamped Capitals team, there is isn't a better time to do that. I'm sure DP knows that as well." - The Drive for Five

"The Caps are paying Jagr to play for the Rangers; the Isles are paying Yashin to play for Lokomotiv Yaroslavl. Clear win for the Isles." - Islanders Outsider

"[I]f the Islanders are to win, it will be simply because they have to win. After a great start, they've fallen asleep and need to prove to themselves, the league, and the fans that they can compete regularly. Also, we're looking for a little payback for last week. Heh.

"Look out for the Guerin-Comrie-Fedotenko line to hit the net hard, as well as Bryan Berard to pitch in more than usual. The Isles need goals before all else. Let's just hope they don't forget keep Alex on a tight leash. " - Islanders Castaway

"None of them want to endure another excruciatingly quiet plane ride home with Ted." - 7th Woman

"Kolzig always eats the Islanders for breakfast, maybe he'll choke on them this time." - SportSquee

"Honestly, I feel that the Isles will come out completely rested and fired up to earn two points in typical gritty Ted Nolan style. With a few shuffled lines and a long break, the Islanders will get back to what made them successful during the first week of the season." - Isles Blogger

"Because the Islanders led by captain Bill Guerin will sink the Capitals ship and Rick DiPietro will protect the buried treasure. " - Battle of New York

There you have it - why the Isles will win tonight. Take some time and check some of those blogs out, and don't be afraid to tell 'em why they're wrong - and why the Caps will get back in the win column to start this four-game homestand.

Elsewhere 'Round the Rinks:

Last week it was the Calgary Hitmen, this week it's the Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds atop the Canadian Hockey League's weekly rankings. Pretty sweet to have the top defenseman for each team in the pipeline, isn't it?... Perhaps GMGM should look to make a trade today. Why? On this date back in 1978 the team acquired Denis Maruk from Minnesota in exchange for the Pens' first round pick in 1979 (used to draft Tom McCarthy) and on this date back in 1983 the club acquired Larry Murphy from Los Angeles for Brian Engblom and Ken Houston. Maruk and Murphy combined to tally 497 goals and 1179 assists after being traded to D.C. (267 goals and 508 assists of which came for the Caps) while McCarthy, Engblom and Houston would total only 196 goals and 296 assists in the rests of their respective careers.

Daily Awards

• Hart: Zach Parise (3A, +1, 6 SOG, 54% faceoffs won)
  
• Ross: Zach Parise, Sergei Gonchar (3 points each)
  
• Norris: Sergei Gonchar (G, 2A, 3 SOG)
  
• Vezina: J.S. Giguere (W, 28 saves on 29 shots against)
  
• Richard: Travic Zajac (2G)
  
• Calder: Andrew Miller (Game-winning goal, +1, 3 SOG)
  
• Aiken: Ryan Malone (0 points, -2, 0 SOG, 0 hits, 2 penalties)
  

Friday Roundup/Gamenight: Caps @ Rangers

[AP Preview - WashingtonCaps.com Preview]

In case you need help firing up the Ranger hatred for tonight's game, let me provide this brief reminder of what transpired the last time these two teams got together at MSG:

With that out of the way, we can turn our attention to the game.

Three games into the season, it seems that the high-priced free agent playmaking center that was brought in to feed the superstar scorer isn't fitting exactly where the team might have initially thought he would, so he has wound up in the middle on the second line and the other free agent forward they acquired has landed the plum assignment as the pivot on the top line for the time being.

Oh, by the way, I'm talking about the Rangers - who'd you think I meant?

New York will spend more this season on Scott Gomez than the Caps will on their four centers combined, and so far all they have to show for that investment are a handful of shots on goal. Luckily (?) for the Blueshirts, they also threw enough money at Chris Drury to entice him to come to the Big Apple, and he has found a regular spot on Jaromir Jagr's left and has the team's only game-winning goal on the young season (shocking, I know).

But it's early, and the Rags have lost two close games on the road to two good teams (Ottawa and the Islanders). They're still considered in the minds of most to be among the Eastern Conference's elite teams, despite a questionable group of blueliners and a lack of depth past their top two lines. Their top six forwards (a group that includes the three players named above as well as Brendan Shanahan and Martin Straka), have the potential to be frightengly good once they gel (let's hope it takes at least a little longer), and in Henrik Lundqvist they have a Vezina-caliber netminder who can single-handedly win a game on any given night.

The Caps, as you know, come into the game a perfect 12-for-12 on the penalty kill this season. What you may not know is that despite all their All-Star forwards, the Rangers are 0-for-15 on the power play so far. Hopefully both trends continue on Friday night, but that may be even more difficult to achieve than it otherwise would be for the visitors if they have to play without their leader in short-handed ice time, Boyd Gordon, who left yesterday's practice with an undisclosed injury. If Gordo can't go, Brian Sutherby would likely get a game sweater (can we still call them sweaters?) for the first time this season.

If Sutherby does get in the lineup tonight, perhaps he'll take the opportunity to renew acquaintances with Ryan Hollweg. Of course, that likely would only be an undercard to the main event:


I expect this to be the toughest test yet for the undefeated Capitals, and it certainly will serve as a good early-season measuring stick. A Friday night in Manhattan - what could be better?

Elsewhere 'Round the Rinks (and Beyond):

Contrary to popular (and by "popular" I mean "my") belief, the Caps could be on the hook for a portion of Jagr's salary next year too, according to Tarik.... Newsday notes Nylander's return to the Big Apple.... USA Today's Kevin Allen has an interesting read on next summer's class of Restricted Free Agents.... The Sens have sent Ray Emery to the AHL on a conditioning assignment, where he'll face the Hershey Bears on Saturday night. Last year, the big club pounded him one of the two times the teams met, so I guess it's fair to let the kids take their shot at him.... Two Minutes For Blogging looks at the tough guys on each teams and the goons in the pipelines. Fun.... Even the Turkish media is impressed with the Caps' quick start.... Per the Hockey Hall of Fame's website, on this day in 1999, "Peter Bondra scored 3 times, including the tying and winning goals 58 seconds apart late in the 3rd period as the Capitals won 5-4 over the visiting Flyers. Bondra's 14th career hat tick made him the team's all-time leader (passing Mike Gartner)."... Finally, I don't usually read the obits, but check this one and tell me this guy didn't go out right.

Daily Awards

• Hart: Erik Cole (2G, including the game-winner, 4 SOG, 4 hits)
  
• Ross: Matt Stajan (4 points)
  
• Norris: Brian Campbell (G, 2A, +2)
  
• Vezina: Tomas Vokoun (29-save shutout win)
  
• Richard: Radek Bonk, Fredrik Sjostrom (2G each)
  
• Calder: Martin Hanzal (Game-winning goal, A, +2, 3 SOG)
  
• Aiken: Kari Lehtonen (L, 5 goals allowed on 20 shots against in two periods of work)
  

Gordon Leaves Practice; Kolzig To Start Friday

We now return to our regularly scheduled Caps coverage.

Tarik reports from K-Plex that Boyd Gordon had to leave practice early today for "precautionary" reasons, which could open the door for Brian Sutherby's season debut tomorrow night at MSG.

In other news from today's practice, one report from K-Plex had the team working on the power play this morning with Michael Nylander on the first unit, swapping places with Chris Clark.

As for the weekend's goaltending duties, expect Olie Kolzig to be in goal in "his favorite building," with Brent Johnson likely starting against the Sabres on Saturday night.

Finally, head over to TFP for a great read from Rink buddy Greg Wyshynski on the Caps' "Locker Room Without Borders."

Media Day Multimedia Dump

Today was Media Day out at K-Plex, and here's your all-access pass to hear what we heard and see what we saw - an organization that, from the top down, can't wait to drop the puck on what should be the most exciting season of Caps hockey in years.


GM George McPhee on Alexander Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom:

Olie Kolzig:

The soft-spoken Backstrom:


Chris Clark:



Ovechkin:


Glen Hanlon:






Michael Nylander on Kevin Lowe and the Edmonton situation (unfortunately, the beginning of the question was cut off - Ken asked, "Have you talked to Kevin Lowe since you signed with the Caps?" and Nyles responded "Every day - text messages, Facebook."):


Finally, a quick interview with Boyd Gordon:

A Minute-By-Minute Look At The Caps

Warning: This is a monster of a post. Grab a sandwich (you have time to run down to Breadline for a ham and cheese, and they have WiFi there anyway).

Two weeks ago, we took a look at the Caps' blueline in terms of certain stats, and on a "per shift" basis, in an effort to see who did what with the ice time they were given.

Today, we'll expand that type of evaluation to all skaters (actually, the 23 of them who played in the NHL last year and are most likely to play for the Caps this year - so no Nicklas Backstrom or Josef Boumedienne, but the young trio of Eric Fehr, Tomas Fleischmann and Jakub Klepis is included, as is John Erskine, who, like Flash and Klepis, has not yet signed for 2007-08). Also, Michael Nylander's, Viktor Kozlov's and Tom Poti's stats are obviously with their 2006-07 teams. Finally, it's worth noting that all of these stats merely tell you how effective the players are/were relative to their teammates - not the rest of the League (that's a project for another day) - so the utility is more in thinking about who deserves playing time than how good the team will be.

With those particulars out of the way, let's dive right in with minutes-per-point. There are no huge surprises at the top (or at the bottom), with Alex Ovechkin, Nylander, Alex Semin, Chris Clark and Kozlov lead the way, with blueliners (Steve Eminger, Mike Green, Milan Jurcina, Shaone Morrisonn and Jeff Schultz) bringing up the rear. The surprises are in between. For example, Matt Pettinger was 6th - if his shoulder is (and can stay) 100% healthy, that bodes incredibly well for the third line. Speaking of the third line, Boyd Gordon was 7th in minutes-per-point, despite getting only 3:50 of power play time all season - AO gets more than that on a 5-minute major powerplay. In fact, Gordon had fewer minutes in between points than Poti. Would you have guessed that? And of that trio of youngsters noted above, Klepis out-produced Flash and Fehr in this stat.

On the other hand, we all know that Brian Sutherby's production was disappointing last year, registering only 17 points after a 30-point 2005-06 campaign. But Brooks Laich produced just one more point in a handful more minutes, and both trailed Matt Bradley, Donald Brashear and Ben Clymer (and all five of those forwards scored better than number one defenseman Brian Pothier). Feeling crowded on that fourth line yet? And does it speak to how well Erskine played that he finished ahead of the likes of Eminger, Green and Jurcina, or is it an indictment of those three? A combination of the two, I'd say.

But enough about points. Lets get to hits. Here are your top five hitters-per-minute:

1. Donald Brashear
2. Alexander Ovechkin
3. John Erskine
4. Matt Bradley
5. Milan Jurcina

And the fearful fivesome at the bottom:

19. Tom Poti
20. Boyd Gordon
21. Alexander Semin
22. Tomas Fleischmann
23. Michael Nylander

Just how averse is Nylander to hitting? Try 669th in the League in hits. Sure, it's not his game, but you'd think you'd accidentally run into more than 12 guys over the course of a season. That's not to say Nyls is not tough - there aren't a ton of 34-year-olds who played 79 games last year - but when the Sedins are out-hitting you, it may be time to cowboy up and throw the body every now and again.

Taking a look at penalty minutes-per-minute of ice time, you can see why Jakub Klepis needs to learn some discipline before he can be an NHL regular:

1. Donald Brashear
2. John Erskine
3. Brian Sutherby
4. Matt Bradley
5. Jakub Klepis

When you consider that under half of each of the top four's PIMs come from minor penalties (i.e. more often than not these players were not leaving the team shorthanded when they were sent to the sin bin or the shower), it tells you a lot about why Klepis found ice time hard to come by, despite decent production. In a similar vein, Alex Semin had 90 PIMs last year - the result of 45 minor penalties and "good" enough for 7th on this list (Morrisonn was sixth). Without question, Sasha needs to reduce the minor penalties going forward.

How about the guys who kept their noses clean? Take a look at this list and, again, think about how well it bodes for the third line:

19. Tomas Fleischmann
20. Jeff Schultz
21. Viktor Kozlov
22. Matt Pettinger
23. Boyd Gordon

Boyd Gordon committed seven minor penalties all year. That's it. Fourteen PIMs. That's one minor for every 160 minutes or so of ice time, or a penalty every ten games. Awesome, and precisely what you'd hope for from him. After all, what good is one of your best penalty killers if he's spending time in the box?

If you haven't noticed the recurring theme of how underrated Boyd Gordon is, you will in a minute, because we're about to look at the guys who protect the puck. As I mentioned in the post on defensemen, puck-movers and playmakers are going to turn the puck over - Jaromir Jagr led the League in giveaways last year, for example. But your better-rounded players will also steal pucks, and a couple of guys rank high on both lists (Ovechkin and Martin St. Louis are two such skaters). But players need to know their roles, and that's where our next stat - takeaways-minus-giveaways-per-minute - comes in. Here are your top five Caps:

1. Boyd Gordon
2. Matt Bradley
3. Brian Sutherby
4. Viktor Kozlov
5. Brooks Laich

And the players who were the most, um, generous with the puck:

19. Jakub Klepis
20. Brian Pothier
21. Steve Eminger
22. Mike Green
23. Jeff Schultz

Guys like Ovechkin, Nylander and Semin are in the middle of the pack, which is perfectly acceptable from your skill guys. Poti is seventh - which is relatively meaningless in and of itself, but he did have an impressive ratio for an offensive defenseman (and better than a number of prominent rearguards) - and Kozlov at fourth is certainly worth noting, for a player of his skillset. Of course, both of those chaps played for a better team than the Caps last year, so take it for what it's worth. But damn... Boyd Gordon...

On the negative side, it's another strike against Jake Klepis and another reminder that Brian Pothier was a bit overmatched last year. Ben Clymer fared only slightly better than Klepis, which certainly doesn't help his cause, as he isn't the type of player that should have such a bad ratio (see where fellow checking-liners score, for example, though recall that Clymer did have a handful of games as a blueliner at the outset of last season).

So there you have it - a look at who did what with their ice time last year. It doesn't necessarily tell us too much that we didn't already know: Boyd Gordon is a stud, and, with Matt Pettinger and a rightwing to be determined, the Caps should have their best third line since the Steve Konowalchuk-Jeff Halpern-Mike Grier/Ulf Dahlen days; Jakub Klepis needs a lot of work; the defense needs to be better, and should be, with the addition of Tom Poti, the maturation of some of the younger kids and everyone in a role for which they're better-suited. Did anything else jump out at you? And how was that sandwich?

Want to check these stats out in a little more detail? Check out this Google Spreadsheet.

The Caps' 2002 Draft Revisited

Five years have passed and Hockey's Future is taking a look back at the 2002 Draft.

The good news? The Caps have the sixth-highest average NHL games played per pick from the draft.

The bad news? Only the Caps three first round picks - Steve Eminger, Alex Semin and Boyd Gordon - have made it to the show, and of the remaining 10 picks, only their second rounder, Maxime Daigneault, even has a realistic shot of ever playing in the bigs.

Of course, going three-for-three in a first round that included such flops as Petr Taticek (taken 9th overall) and Jesse Niinimaki (taken 15th) and finding a top-notch sniper, your shut-down center and, um, Steve Eminger far outweighs the later-round misses, but unfortunately there would be no diamonds in the rough in 2002 for GMGM et. al.

The Caps' 2002 Draft Class (pick, position, player):
12 D Steve Eminger
13 L Alexander Semin
17 R Boyd Gordon
59 G Maxime Daigneault
77 D Patrick Wellar
92 C Derek Krestanovich
109 L Jevon Desautels
118 R Petr Dvorak
145 G Robert Gherson
179 C Marian Havel
209 W Joni Lindlof
242 F Igor Ignatushkin
272 R Patric Blomdahl

Thursday Roundup/Caps 3, Thrashers 2

[SeSo Open Thread - NHL.com Recap]

I'm having some difficulty this morning. I can't decide which is my favorite quote from Tarik's recap of last night's game:

"Today, the Thrashers see a good team -- the Capitals." - Alex Ovechkin

OR

"They did the right things and worked us." - Andy Sutton

A big game from AO, a big game from Muffins and a big game from Johnnie. The Caps are doing a great job of making chicken soup from chicken poop down the stretch and have the chance to end the season on a real high note with a win against Buffalo on Saturday.

By my math, if Olie Kolzig can give up one goal or less on Saturday, his goals against average for the year will end up below 3.00. If he gives up two goals in 60 or more minutes, he'll end up sub-three, but if he gives up a pair in 59 minutes or fewer, he'll be at three. Yes, it's that close.

Finally, everyone should read Vogel's post on Steve Eminger, and by "everyone" I mean everyone - Rink readers, Caps management, hockey fans, Dick Cheney, Jessica Alba... everyone.

The Brilliant Musings Of J.P. You May Have Missed From The FanHouse

• Not Breaking News: Liberals, Women, French -- Relatively Wussy
• Playing The Blame Game In Beantown

Daily Awards

• Hart: Alexander Ovechkin (2G, including the game-winner, -1, 4 SOG)
• Ross: Alexander Ovechkin, Boyd Gordon, Andy MacDonald, Chris Pronger, Marcel Goc (2 points each)
• Norris: Chris Pronger (2A, +1, 5 SOG, 3 hits)
• Vezina: Evgeni Nabokov (W, 37 saves on 39 shots against in SO win)
• Richard: Alexander Ovechkin (2G)
• Calder: Ryane Clowe (Game-winning shootout goal)
• Aiken: Mark Hartigan, Joe DiPenta, Kent Huskins (combined -6, 0 points, 0 SOG, 1 hit in 3-2 shootout loss)

Bad News On The Injury Front

Per Tarik:

"[T]he Caps found out today that they are going to be without left wing Matt Pettinger for four to six weeks because of a broken thumb, and center Boyd Gordon for two weeks due to a sore knee."

Princess and Muffins. Damn.

Alex Giroux will be recalled, as, presumably, will someone else.