Tuesday Roundup/Gamenight: Caps @ Sens

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A week ago today, we mentioned that Alex Ovechkin's two-game absence from the Caps lineup presented opportunity aplenty for both the Caps and AO. Some players took advantage (at least for one night). Others did not. Now we'll see if the Great Eight can himself make the most of the opportunity to once again show everyone in the League why he is the reigning MVP and get his game, and more imporantly the Caps season (too dramatic?), back on track.

And what better team for Ovechkin to face in this effort than the Ottawa Senators, a squad he positively torched last season to the tune of six goals (including his first career four-goal game) and four assists in four games? For his career, AO has ten goals and nine assists against the Sens in twelve games (his third-highest points-per-game rate against any opponent he has faced more than three times, behind only Philly and Atlanta).

In fact, for one reason or another, the entire Caps team (other than the new guy between the pipes) has fared well against Ottawa recently, going 7-2-0 in their last nine games (after being winless in their previous eight) and outscoring the Sens 37-25 along the way (including 22-12 in last season's four-game sweep).

The current Senators squad comes into the game with a 4-5-2 record, thanks in no small part to a horrid five-on-five goal ratio (both their power play and penalty kill have been strong, however) and weak goaltending from incumbent number one, Martin Gerber... who won't starting tonight. Instead, the Caps will face the red hot Alex Auld, who is 3-2-1/2.15/.931 on the season and has had only one game with a sub-.921 save percentage thus far (so he's due for a shellacking, eh?).

On offense, the Sens are led bythe usual suspects, with Dany Heatley, Jason Spezza, Filip Kuba and Daniel Alfredsson all playing at a point-per-game clip or better.

Wait, Filip Kuba? Heh. (He's no Andrej Meszaros, is he, Brian Lawton?)

So here it is Election Day, and the Caps will get their leader back (talk about the change we need) leaving us with one question: Can we enjoy a Caps win tonight? I've got all the hope in the world that, indeed, yes we can.

Elsewhere 'Round the Rinks:

Pierre LeBrun weighs in on Semin/Crosby and includes some damage control from Ted Leonsis. Good stuff, though there's no way Ray Shero could take GMGM.... Speaking of the Pens, take a look at this eight-step program to better our friends from Pittsburgh and tell me how many would apply to the Caps (I count a bare minimum of five).... Still sticking with the City at the confluence of the three rivers, LCS Hockey thinks Alex Semin is a stooge, but that Sidney Crosby isn't progressing as a player and right now is just "a fast Adam Oates," which I thought was more or less Semin's point.... The Caps are enjoying the second largest attendance boost over last year's numbers in the League.

Saturday Roundup/Gamenight: Caps @ Sabres

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When Alex Ovechkin misses games, nearly everyone misses him. The Caps miss his offense and his leadership. Those watching miss the chance to see perhaps the greatest player in the game. And, in Buffalo, fans miss the chance to jeer one of their favorite villains (too bad Puck Daddy didn't ask Alex Semin what he thought of Thomas Vanek, eh?).

But missed the Great Eight will be tonight when the Caps take on the Sabres, and that's unfortunate - the Caps sure could use him. Buffalo comes into the game at 6-2-2 (but losers of three straight) and should be salty after an embarrassing 5-2 home loss to the Bolts on Thursday. Vanek leads the League in goals, Ryan Miller is 5-1-1/2.07/.928, the Sabre power play is humming along at 21.4% (so discipline, as we talked about yesterday, will be key if the Caps are going to have any chance), neither Caps goalie has a career save percentage above .900 against the Sabres, and the Caps are 1-5 in Buffalo since the lockout.

So, um, yeah... tough test tonight (and for more from the other side, be sure to stop by our good buddies at BfloBlog).

But here's your "glass is half full" stat of the day: Jose Theodore's career GAA and SV% in October are worse than any other month of the year. We all changed those calendars overnight, right?

Elsewhere 'Round the Rinks:

Following a 38-goal campaign, Alex Semin's 26-goal 2007-08 "made you wonder just a bit" (presumably about whether he was any good or not), according to Pierre LeBrun. LeBrun's cursory look at Semin's stat line made me wonder just a bit whether or not he realized that Semin scored at a 41-goal pace over his last 47 games last season (i.e. once he was healthy).... Speaking of Semin, more fallout from his comments on Sid the Kid here (and still no one mentioned the word "blog" in their story).... TH has the translation on a Sergei Fedorov interview from a few days ago.... And speaking of Sid, Fark has an update on his injury.... DMG catches us up on how a bunch of Caps prospects are doing so far this season.... A Kris Beech Calgary Hitmen sweater is my confession/entry into this conversation (h/t Caps Message Board).

It's Like Déjà Vu All Over Again

As Caps fans delight in Alex Semin's scintillating start to the season, the rest of the League is taking notice of the "other" Alex as well.

Here's a sampling of what they're writing:

"Alexander Semin, goal machine. Most prognosticators expected a Russian ... to lead the Washington Capitals in scoring all season. But it wasn't Semin.... Nevertheless, there he is." - Adam Proteau, ESPN.com

"THAT a Russian named Alexander is leading the Washington Capitals in scoring should surprise absolutely no one. Except in this case the last name is Semen [sic], not Ovechkin." - Pierre LeBrun, Winnipeg Free Press

Wait, what's that you say? Those articles are both two years old?

Sure enough, two years ago today, Alex Semin was leading the Caps in scoring with eight goals and four helpers in ten games (Alex Ovechkin had six goals and four assists), and his "sweet hands" were the talk of the town.

Semin would go on to score 38 goals for the season, which was good for 13th in the League (and just eight fewer than Number Eight would score), but took a bit of a step backwards last year, due to injuries. He's a different player today than he was two years ago (thanks, Sergei!), but what's being written about him is hardly anything new.

The Catalyst

I mentioned it earlier, but here's a look at ESPN.com's "New Classic: The Catalyst" (a.k.a. Mike Green):

Click image to enlarge
To understand the magnitude (perhaps silliness, truth be told) of Pierre LeBrun's comparison, take a look at Paul Coffey's career numbers. Positively staggering. There's simply no way to put into context something like the fact that in 1985-86, Coffey had 48 goals, 90 assists and had a plus-61 rating in 79 games while last season, the entire Caps blueline had 34 goals, 114 assists and a plus-36 rating... in 492 man-games.

Now, no one's saying that Mike Green is or ever will be Paul Coffey - Coffey is a three-time Norris Trophy winning Hall of Fame defenseman with four Stanley Cup rings. But there the two of them are together, with "Green enthralling us with his best Coffey imitation," and that in and of itself is high praise indeed.

I have a question, though - if Mike Green is such a world-class puck rusher, why can't he crack LeBrun's roster for Team Canada?

Looking Ahead To 2010

ESPN.com's experts are already cobbling together their Canadian and American rosters for the 2010 Olympics, and Scott Burnside has put a Cap on each team:

Chris Clark [Team USA]
Captain of the Washington Capitals had 30 goals two seasons ago and will go through a wall for you.

Mike Green [Team Canada]
Led all NHL defensemen with 18 goals last season and skates like the wind. Surely there's room on this squad for a player like that.

Neither E.J. Hradek nor Pierre LeBrun have a clue either player making their respective country's squad. Clark I can understand, but it will be something of a shock if, a year-and-a-half from now, Mike Green isn't one of the top-six Canadian defensemen in the world and loses out on an Olympic roster spot to Chris Phillips or Robyn Regehr.

Update: Corey = teh smart

Tuesday Roundup

Just about a year ago at this time, a young team that hadn't been in the playoffs in a while was gearing up for a first round date with a pretty evenly matched opponent. Led by their Ross (and eventual Hart) Trophy winner, prized rookies, high-scoring blueliner and a veteran forward and some sandpaper picked up at the trade deadline, they promptly got trounced (ok, beaten handily) in the first round.

That team, of course, was the Pittsburgh Penguins, a 105-point squad whose inexperience showed against a more battle-tested Ottawa team, but the reasons Pittsburgh lost went beyond youth.

Will this year's Caps team suffer a similar fate? Let's take a look at some differences (and similarities) between this year's Caps/Flyers series and last year's Pens/Sens match-up.

• Goaltending. Heading into last year's playoffs, Pens' netminder Marc-Andre Fleury hadn't played in a single NHL playoff game, and he got lit up to the tune of 1-4/3.76/.880 (though, to be fair, Pitt's offense went and hid after Game 2). He was outplayed by Ray Emery, who had 10 games of playoff experience the prior year.
  
  Cristobal Huet, on the other hand, has a playoff series under his belt (2-4/2.33/.929) already, and it's Martin Biron who will be making his debut on the game's biggest stage.
  
  
• Offense. Pittsburgh was the third-highest scoring team in the regular season last year... but Ottawa was second. Despite the Pens' lethal power-play, the Sens' far superior five-on-five scoring predictably (due to the reduced number of penalties called in the postseason) provided them with an edge.
  
  Like their Pennsylvania brethren last season, the Flyers had a great power play during the regular season, but the Caps were the better team five-on-five (and, of course, those are season-long, not post-Hanlon numbers).
  
  
• Defense. The Sens gave up fewer goals and had a better penalty kill than the Pens last season.
  
  This season, the post-Hanlon Caps had a better GAA than the Flyers' season-long mark, but the Flyers had the better penalty kill (which they'll likely need - they were the most penalized team in the Eastern Conference during the regular season).
  
  
• The home stretch. Finally, the Pens finished up the 2006-07 regular season with a 6-3-1 record. The Sens put a wrap on their season with a 6-2-2 mark.
  
  The Flyers ended this season 7-2-1, and the Caps, well, you know what they did - 9-1-0.
  

On paper, and with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, it's easy to see that the Pens had their work cut out for them last year, despite having the same number of points as Ottawa over the 82-game regular season. The Caps simply don't have the same match-up disadvantages in their first-round series with Philly (and they have home-ice, which the Pens did not). That's not to say that they don't face a significant challenge - of course they do. But chalking up Pittsburgh's loss to Ottawa last year to inexperience is a little shallow, analytically, and assuming that the Caps will fold because of their collective youth is just silly.

I will, however, point out this fact: Sergei Fedorov has played in 162 NHL playoff games. The rest of the skaters on the roster? 155 (Donald Brashear 49, Matt Cooke 32, Chris Clark 26, Tom Poti 24, Viktor Kozlov 14, Matt Bradley 10).

Then again, maybe experience is everything. What do I know?

Elsewhere 'Round the Rinks:

The news is coming fast and furious, so be sure to check back with the "What We're Reading" sidebar often for all the latest.... Mike Green is an unsung hero.... Eric Fehr is Hockey's Future's 47th-best prospect, and Karl Alzner is #12 on the list.... The Caps are up to sixth in CBS's power rankings. R-E-S-P-E-C-T, find out what it means to Ovie.... Pierre LeBrun says Caps in seven.... Scott Burnside doesn't think it'll take that long.... Neither does David Bastl (whoever he is).... A video game says Flyers in seven.... How nice was it not to give a crap about the Draft Lottery last night?... Vote for Huet's mask.... A great read on faceoffs from the WSJ? WTF?... On this date back in 1993, Sylvain Cote scored his 20th goal of the season making the Caps the first team in NHL history to have three 20-goal scoring blueliners in a season (CoCo would end up with 21 goals, joining Kevin Hatcher (34) and Al Iafrate (25) as 20-goal rearguards).... Also on this date back in 1989, Kelly Miller's overtime goal gave the Caps a 4-3 win and a 2-1 series lead over the Philadelphia Flyers in Game 3 of the Patrick Division Semifinals and on this date back in 1987, Mike Ridley's game-winner gave the Caps a 4-3 win over the Isles in Game 1 of the Patrick Division Semis.... Finally, one year ago today we lamented an individual statistic (yawn) and thanked you guys for coming out and partying with us (awww).

Tuesday Roundup/Gamenight: Caps @ Preds

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And so it begins.

The Caps can't make the playoffs with a great road trip, but they sure as hell can take themselves out of post-season contention if things don't go well. Six games: Nashville, Chicago, Atlanta, Carolina, Tampa and Florida. What do you think - gotta have eight points, at a bare minimum?

The good news is that none of these teams is unbeatable. Nashville lost big at home to the worst team in hockey on Saturday (but then rebounded to beat the League's best team on the road the next day). Chicago is a nice story in the way that the Caps were a "nice story," but here it is mid-March and the Caps are still playing meaningful games while the 'Hawks are optimistically looking towards next year. And, of course, there's the trio of Southeast Division foes, each of whom the Caps have beaten at least twice already this season.

The bad news is that the Caps haven't exactly shone brightly in big games lately. In fact, since the night they triumphantly stood atop the Southeast Division for the first time in years, they've gone a respectable (thanks to the current three-game win streak) 9-6-3, but only 2-3-1 within the Division, and even in some of their wins haven't been at their best.

"It looked like we were afraid to make a mistake instead of, 'Let's go get them,' and play the way we can.... We were tight a little bit out there because of the importance of the game," said Bruce Boudreau of Sunday's game against Boston, but he could just as easily have been talking about any number of games since early February.

Of course, the more cautious play has yielded some impressive defensive numbers, most notably 19 goals allowed in the last 11 games. Cristobal Huet (tonight's starter) is on fire (1.69 GAA, .940 SV% in his last five games; coincidentally, Huet has already faced the Preds this season, stopping 40 shots but losing in a shootout after giving up three late third period goals). Olie Kolzig (tomorrow night's starter) is also on fire (1.20 GAA, .942 SV% in his last four games). And so on. But the Caps need to be more aggressive and less-easily frustrated than they were on Sunday, or else they're going to see nothing but one-fours the rest of the way.

Unfortunately (or maybe fortunately), this sets up as a game in which both teams have every incentive to play a tight, low-risk sixty minutes and then take their chances in overtime or the shootout - the Preds, like the Caps, are within striking distance of eighth place in the conference, but on the outside looking in. Will either team open it up, or will it be a "wink-wink, nudge-nudge, see you in sixty minutes when we each have a point" affair? Tune in to find out.

His seven years of mourning The Intimidator complete, Bobby Joe realized it was his destiny to put his gift of back hair maintenance to further use and start the Marek Zidlicky Fan Club
Elsewhere 'Round the Rinks:

If you missed this Larry Wigge article on Olie Kolzig, unmiss it now.... Should the Caps miss the playoffs, be prepared for six thousand "Can you miss the playoffs and be MVP?" articles like this one.... Speaking of the Hart Trophy, Mike Brophy's top six candidates early yesterday morning were Jarome Iginla, Martin Brodeur, Roberto Luongo, Nicklas Lidstrom, Evgeni Malkin and Vincent Lecavalier. Apparently he had a cup of coffee and came back and remembered that other guy a couple of hours later.... And speaking of brain-dead journos, Pierre LeBrun names ten Coach of the Year candidates, but doesn't list Gabby among 'em.... I sure hope Nicklas Backstrom is mentally ready for tonight's game after no doubt being shaken by this news.... The Top 10 Defensemen of All-Time apparently doesn't include Rod Langway or Scott Stevens.... It'll be "a crying shame if the Washington Capitals don't make the NHL playoffs." Agreed.... Happy 30th Birthday to former Cap Jan Bulis.... Finally, one year ago today we looked at two rumors (one of which more or less panned out - I'll let you figure out which one) and two years ago today we previewed that night's Caps/Kitties match up.

Daily Awards

• Hart: Henrik Sedin (2G, 4 SOG)
  
• Ross: Brent Burns, Sami Salo, Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin, Kevin Bieksa (2 points each)
  
• Norris: Brent Burns (G, A, +1, 5 SOG, 6 hits)
  
• Vezina: Niklas Backstrom (W, 29 saves on 30 shots against)
  
• Richard: Henrik Sedin (2G)
  
• Calder: Daniel Carcillo (G, 21 PIMs... at least he gets the fantasy Calder)
  
• Aiken: Peter Forsberg (0 points, 0 SOG, -2)

Sunday Funnies

Hat tip to Alex Ovetjkin for pointing us to the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review's article which asked a number of mainstream media types the ridiculously ambiguous question, "Who is the NHL's best player right now?"

The results and commentary are all worth checking out, as the writers engage in an impromptu competition to see whose quote can come across as the douchiest. The winner? Probably Pierre LeBrun, though Bruce Garrioch's rhyme and Tim Panaccio's head-scratcher are up there. Oh, and who the hell voted "Chris Pronger"?