Wednesday Roundup/Gamenight: Caps @ Ducks

[AP Preview - WashingtonCaps.com Preview]

The last time the Caps were in Anaheim, Alex Ovechkin potted his first career hat trick in a 3-2 Caps overtime win over J.S. Giguere and the Ducks, and that OTL still stands as one of only two blemishes on Jiggy's unbelievable 3-1-1/1.39/.951 resume against Washington. In fact, take away that night's "shelling" and Jiggy is an even more ridiculous 3-1-0/1.00/.966 against the Caps... of course, take away AO and a lot of goalies' numbers look much better.

Besides being the site of one of the Great Eight's many coming out parties, Anaheim was also home to Sergei Fedorov for just over a season - 85 games, to be exact - in which he scored 31 goals, had 35 assists and was forced to wear this (though SoCal was certainly not without its perks for Feds).

But enough about history, especially since eight Caps - Nicklas Backstrom, Eric Fehr, Tomas Fleischmann, Mike Green, Milan Jurcina, Jeff Schultz, Tyler Sloan and David Steckel - have never played an NHL game in the Golden State. Let's talk about the here and now.

The Ducks come into the game with a 6-2-2 record in their last ten... not quite as good as the Caps' 7-1-2 mark. They're scoring at a 2.95 goals per game clip... not bad, but not as impressive as the Caps' 3.24 goals per game. Their defense is allowing three goals per outing... slightly more than Washington's 2.76. The Ducks have been very good five-on-five... but not as good as the Caps, and they're in the top half of the League in shots per game... just a few spots behind D.C.

You get the point - the Ducks have been good. The Caps have been better.

But that's all on paper (and mostly with Alex Semin on the ice and not in the press box, where he's likely to be tonight). Also on paper? Giguere's current 0-2-1/4.51/.851 cold streak, Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry's combined 37 points over the last 11 games, the year-to-date decimation of my 401(k), AO and Backstrom's combined 18 points over the last three games, Brent Johnson's 3-0-0/1.72/.939 streak, and so on and so on.

On the ice, however, the Caps will find a rough and tumble (though presumably no longer mighty) bunch - the Ducks led the League in fighting majors heading into last night's action - with a couple of Hall of Fame defensemen and enough fire power up front to set the region ablaze (too soon?). It's a potentially dicey match up for a relatively soft and banged up Caps team... but then again, that's just on paper - we'll see what happens when it plays out on the teevee.

Oh, and make sure to stop by BoC today and tell Sleek he's a douche (be careful, though - that might be actionable).

Elsewhere 'Round the Rinks:

"Campbellnomics" is being met with plenty of resistance, but since it tells us that Alex Semin is the most valuable skater in hockey so far, we're buying it (the fanboy in us wins out over the economist today).... Speaking of Semin, James Duthie has him as an All-Star.... The Baltimore Examiner had a quick chat with AO.... More power rankings, with the Caps up six to sixth at SI.com, up five to sixth at ESPN.com, up four to seventh at Yahoo! and up two to eighth at Fox Sports.... Bucci likes the Caps a lot (but not as much as the Pens, of course).... Double O gets some love from The Hockey News.... If you missed the Lebanon Daily News profile of Karl Alzner yesterday, check it out (and catch him on the radio/internet later this morning).... Good stuff on Grant McNeill here.... Bear Tracks - awesome, as always.... "Goalie weenies" of the world, unite!... Finally, like most of the Caps, one would assume, I've got Anna K. in this one (twins freak me out a little, truth be told).

Bears Win, Future Continues To Look Blindingly Bright

Here are John Walton's three stars from tonight's 7-3 Bears win over Philly:

1. Oskar Osala (First American Hockey League hat trick)
2. Francois Bouchard (Three assists, including a terrific play to set up Osala in the third)
3. Sami Lepisto (Goal and two assists)

Saturday Roundup/Gamenight: Rangers @ Caps

[AP Preview - WashingtonCaps.com Preview]

No more Jagr. No more Avery. Can you really still hate the Rangers?

You're damn right you can (and if you need a new reason why, here are a couple).

The Rangers come into tonight's game with the most wins in the Eastern Conference, a 4-1-1 record on the road, a miserly 2.12 team goals against average (thanks to an eye-popping 90.3% effective penalty kill), a born-again Nikolai Zherdev and a brick wall named Henrik Lundqvist (who is 5-1-0/1.82/.936 in his last six games).

Against that stout team defense, the Caps will ice a squad that has scored four goals in its last three games (three of which came Thursday night) and has scored one goal or less in four of its last seven outings, partially the result of a sputtering power play that has gone 4-for-39 (10.3%) over the last nine games (the Rangers power play, by the way, had gone five-for-50 over the ten game span leading up to their last match, in which they lit the lamp three times with the extra man).

But as the Caps' power play efficiency has tanked, the penalty killing has excelled, to the tune of 89.7% effective over the last seven games (35-for-39). Put another way, over the last 65:47 of shorthanded ice time (slightly more than a full game plus a full overtime session), the Caps have only surrendered four goals - the team has a .931 save percentage and a 3.65 GAA (which is 0.21 higher than Jose Theodore's overall GAA on the season) while down a man (or two) over the past seven games.

That's some pretty impressive penalty killing. Perhaps even more impressive? Tonight's likely Caps starting netminder's numbers as a starter this season - Brent Johnson is 2-0-2/1.93/.936 in the games for which he's been on the ice at the opening puck drop.

So, on paper at least, we're looking at what should be a defensive battle where a single mistake can be the difference between two points and a night wasted... which means the game will be anything but low-scoring. Bet the over and hope for two points.

Random Nicklas Backstrom Thought:

Last season, Nicklas Backstrom played 15 games before finally scoring his first NHL goal in game number 16. During those first 15 games (playing mostly on the wing), he fired just thirteen shots on goal.

This season, through a dozen games, Nick has no goals, but has taken 28 shots on goal (including four in each of his past two games). It's only a matter of time before he finds the back of the net, of course, but even if he was scoring at the same shooting percentage rate as he did under Bruce Boudreau last year, he'd only have 2.78 goals so far. So really, even with that goose egg, he's not that far off where we might reasonably expect him to be in terms of goals (assists are another story - he "should" have at least nine by now based on last year's post-Hanlon rate, but there's another significant factor impacting that equation at present).

Elsewhere 'Round the Rinks:

Per NHL Director of Corporate Communications Michael DiLorenzo's Twittering, the Caps experienced a 74% year-over-year increase in merchandise sales at NHL.com in October, which was the fifth-largest increase in the League (Chicago was up a whopping 234%!). Alex Ovechkin had the second-best selling jersey for the month (behind Alex Semin's buddy), with Mike Richards, Henrik Lundqvist and Evgeni Malkin rounding out the top five. Good stuff, and h/t to KK to tipping me off to DiLorenzo's feed.... Speaking of Ovechkin and Malkin, with weeks having passed since their last meeting and months to go before they meet again, you'd think their rivalry wouldn't be a hot topic for Steel City journos. You'd be wrong.... Down on the farm, Simeon Varlamov picked up his first pro shutout (and Oskar Osala scored yet another goal) for Hershey and Joel Broda had a natural hat trick for Moose Jaw.... For those of you wondering about Jamie Heward, here's an update.

Monday Roundup

Alright, it's time for Silver Lining Monday*, which today features the penalty kill. The Caps PK got off to a rough start, allowing seven goals against in its first 24 times shorthanded (70.8% effective), but has gone 31-for-36 (86.1%) since to raise the efficiency to a nice, round 80% on the season, which is still not great (it would have ranked 26th in the League last season), but it's certainly a significant step in the right direction.

Unfortunately, as the PK has gotten better, the power play has gotten worse, as shown below:

But as this is Silver Lining Monday, we're going to focus on the PK. What has been driving the improved kill efficiency? Well, statistically, it's hard to say - the amount of time shorthanded doesn't seem to be much of a factor, and neither do the total number of shots against or the per game average shots against per minute (I won't bore you with those charts, but note that since the PK started this turn around in Game 5, the Caps have had three games in which they've been shorthanded for more than 13 minutes - not good). But one major driver seems to be the goaltending (which likely includes the defense limiting quality chances against):

As you can see, GAA is down, SV% is up. Granted, both stats had plenty of room for improvement after that rocky start, but they have, indeed improved. In fact, heading into last night's game, the Caps were 17th in the League in four-on-five save percentage - plenty of room for improvement, to be sure, but far better than their rank in overall save percentage, a woeful 27th prior to last night (Colorado, Nashville and Dallas were worse).

Now, it may not seem like a great revelation to attribute a better PK to better goaltending, and indeed, it's no great epiphany. But given that the team isn't cutting down on the penalties it's taking and isn't limiting the shots against on the kill, it's good to know that the last line of defense is holding up its end of the bargain... shorthanded, at least.

* Just because it's Silver Lining Monday doesn't mean you can't piss and moan in the comments.

Elsewhere 'Round the Rinks:

The way the "Semin disses Crosby" quote has been covered is beyond annoying on so many levels. First of all, the mainstream media's attribution of credit for the quote is shameful, but unsurprising (recall their coverage of the Ovechkin Hart t-shirt story). Secondly, I must have mis-read the quote, because I don't recall Semin saying he was better than Crosby, and yet I see comparison's between the career accomplishments of the two everywhere, as if the only people who can criticize a player are those who are more skilled than the subject of their criticism. Finally, how big a stiffy did Don Cherry get (sorry for the visual) when he saw that a Russian claimed that an American is better than a Canadian? If a Swede had agreed, Cherry would have spontaneously combusted.... The Bears rookie line of Oskar Osala and "two Frenchies" was pretty awesome in the third period yesterday (and for a couple more prospect notes, head over to TRS).

CSN On Alzner And Osala

This is a couple of days old, but worth checking out in case it slipped by the first time:

Mmmm... Fluff

You know who thinks the Caps prospects are good? The guy who drafted 'em (the Caps are the 26th franchise to have their prospects profiled on NHL.com this summer, so I wouldn't get too excited by the feature).

And you know who thinks the Caps have a handful of AHLers who might be ready for NHL duty? The guy who coached 'em in the AHL (and who now, not coincidentally, wants to make sure everyone earns their spot on his NHL roster, regardless of where he was drafted or how many kudos he's received).

Just about any news is good news these days, and I'm certainly not hating on an impressive stable of young talent, but these self-evaluations are only so useful. Will we see Tyler Sloan patrolling the blueline at the Verizon Center this winter? I have my doubts, but we shall see.

One thing is for sure, however - Hershey should be pretty stacked. And speaking of prospects headed for Chocolate Town, here's a tiny bit more on Oskar Osala, already a cult hero to some in CapsNation.

Osala Fin(n)ished With Juniors

As we speculated on Monday, Osala's recently-signed deal with Espoo does contain an out clause, so if the Big O signs a deal to play for either the Caps or, far more likely, Hershey, he'll begin his professional career on this side of the pond - undersized AHL defensemen, be forewarned.

Make sure to head over to Caps.com to read Vogs' profile on the young Finn, and while you're over there, check out Mike's profiles of Osala's fellow countryman Sami Leposito and Czech goaltender Michal Neuvirth as well.

Osala Signs With Blues

Per Eurohockey.net, winger Oskar Osala has signed with the Espoo Blues of the Finnish Elite League.

Osala, who impressed at the Caps' development camp earlier this month, had been thought to be headed to Hershey in the Fall, and still might for all we know - these contracts often have out-clauses. Regardless of where he plays this season, hopes are high for the 6'4" forward, and if his development continues to progress the way it has over the past year, we'll all get to see him again on this side of the pond sooner rather than later.

The Other Gordon And A Pair Of Finns

The fantastic Tim Leone has a profile of Caps' prospect Andrew Gordon in today's Patriot News that's certainly worth checking out.

Leone describes Gordon as a "high-energy forward" (head coach Bruce Boudreau compares Gordon to the Kings' Dustin Brown, who Boudreau coached in Manchester) who is certain to energize the Bears' lineup in his first season in Chocolatetown.

Leone also notes that hulking Finnish forward Oskar Osala is expected to play in Hershey this year as well, despite having another year of Junior eligibility left. Osala's fellow countryman Sami Lepisto is also expected to play for Coach Boudreau this coming season.

Finally, here's a bit of trivia for you - Sami Lepisto's godfather is none other than Jari Kurri.

Thanks for dropping all that knowledge on us, Tim!

Hockey's Future: Capitals Top 20 Prospects

Hockey's Future has updated its Top 20 Caps Prospects (with a couple of paragraphs on each player) and the only thing that really jumps out at me is that Francois Bouchard has leap-frogged Tomas Fleischmann. Travis Morin's low ranking and the omission of Viktor Dovgan have some scratching their heads, but all in all, the list is rather unsurprising (and it's great to see two goalies so high on the list). Here it is, with a cherry-picked, not-always-in-context money quote for each player:

1. Nicklas Backstrom, C - "has the potential and maturity to center a first line as soon as next season"
2. Eric Fehr, RW - "with his impressive offensive prowess and ongoing success in the AHL, Fehr will not be a man with two teams for much longer"
3. Semen Varlamov, G - "quick legs, and a very quick glove, which lets him excel at breakaways, especially shootouts"
4. Francois Bouchard, C/RW - "he might not just contribute, but be an impact player"
5. Tomas Fleischmann, LW - "with great hockey sense, along with an impressive shot and playmaking ability, Fleischmann has excellent offensive potential"
6. Michal Neuvirth, G - "a well-rounded butterfly style goaltender who shines under pressure situations. Rarely getting rattled, his mental toughness is remarkable for his age."
7. Chris Bourque, LW/RW - "has all intangibles -- great hockey sense, excellent skating, leadership, competitiveness, and above all, the ability to put himself in the right positions to score"
8. Jeff Schultz, D - "all the physical potential to become a keystone defenseman at the NHL level"
9. Patrick McNeill, D - "has enormous offensive potential, and is defensively sound"
10. Keith Seabrook, D - "has an incredibly hard shot from the point, and an ability to find open shooting lanes"
11. Oskar Osala, LW - "has incredible offensive talent, and at 6'4 his great speed and skating ability is very rare"
12. Sami Lepisto, D - "One of the best young defensemen in Finland, Lepisto excels at puck control; with a very calm demeanor he makes good passes and exudes confidence with the puck."
13. Joe Finley, D - "His incredible size, mixed with a certain aggressiveness, gives him the ability to take control of a game from a defensive standpoint."
14. Maxime Daigneault, G - "With good size, and an aggressively challenging style, Daigneault covers a lot of space in the net and uses his butterfly technique and quick glove to stymie shooters."
15. Sasha Pokulok, D - "Out of all the defensemen in the Capitals prospect system, Pokulok may be the most well-rounded."
16. Andrew Gordon, RW - "Gordon has what every club in the NHL looks for in offensive players: consistency at a high level."
17. Travis Morin, C - "His great playmaking skills, matched with excellent puckhandling, makes Morin successful on the power play."
18. Mathieu Perreault, C - "has enormous offensive upside"
19. Stephen Werner, RW - "Werner is a good playmaker and makes good decisions. He has a hard shot and is good through traffic, but his calling card is his speed."
20. Jamie Hunt, D - "extremely quick and a very good skater for his size"

Wednesday Roundup: Where'd You Come From?

I saw this on Capitol Punishment the other day and decided I needed to rip off Chris ripping off Ducksnorts ripping off Will Young (jeez, we could do a rip-off tree just as easily). Basically, it traces how (a somewhat arbitrary list of) the 2006-07 Caps came to be Caps, and is pretty self-explanatory if you typically read left-to-right. Without further ado, here it is (click on it to enlarge, and then click again, depending on browser, to see it full size):

I didn't note where draft picks had been acquired via trade, but might at some point. Also, there may be some mistakes on there, and I'd happily correct 'em if you point 'em out.

What I found interesting is that of the ten players acquired via trade, Jakub Klepis and Tomas Fleischmann are the only ones who were acquired for players that weren't orginally Caps draft picks. I'm not sure exactly what that means - maybe that the organization (mostly thanks to the prior regime) has been able to draft and move a bunch of quality NHLers. Or that they've been reluctant to bring in quality players from outside the organization, even pre-dating the Jaromir Jagr experiment. Or that they've been conservative in the frequency of moves they've made. One thing clearly shows is that they didn't get jack squat for Jagr (other than a season so awful they had the chance to win the draft lottery and draft Alex Ovechkin, which ain't bad but sure ain't thanks to any managerial skill).

Also noteworthy is that little is left (and nothing on this list) from the great Adam Oates coup at 2002's trade deadline (you'll recall that the Caps sent Oates to the Flyers for Maxime Ouellet, a 1st (later traded to Dallas which became Martin Vagner), a 2nd (Maxime Daigneault) and a 3rd (Derek Krestanovich) round selections in 2002), save a mid-level goaltending prospect in Daigneault. Oh well - it looked great at the time and was a move you'd make every day of the week and twice on Sunday.

The larger point is that Caps fans need to remember that this team is still very much rebuilding and nowhere close to rebuilt (OFB has a must-read that really hammers home this point). Most of the free agent signings are stop-gaps and placeholders, and once this team is rebuilt, it will be built to last, not just to make one or two runs at success.

Elsewhere 'Round The Rinks

• Mirtle has a blurb on GMGM's trip to Sweden to sweet talk the "very shy and reserved" Nick Bäckström. Luckily, AO has enough personality (and talent) to carry his future teammate a bit.
• Speaking of the World Juniors, through four games, Caps prospect Semen Varlamov is 4-0-0 with a .964 save percentage and a 0.75 GAA. Fellow future Cap (fourth-round find), Finnish forward Oskar Osala has five goals and two assists in five games. High five!
• This Saturday night's game against the Thrashers is the Caps second annual Autism Awareness Night. Spread the word and give until you can't give any more, then give a little more. Just a little.
  

Daily Awards

• Hart: Sidney Crosby (2G, including game-winner, A, +2)
  
• Ross: P.-M. Bouchard (4 points)
  
• Norris: Francis Boullion (2A, +1, 1 SOG, 2 hits)
  
• Vezina: Nikolai Khabibulin (W, 38 saves on 39 shots against)
  
• Richard: Sidney Crosby, Matthew Lombardi, P.-M. Bouchard, Tomas Plekanec, Mark Parrish (2G each)
  
• Calder: Ryan Potulny (GWG on his only shot of the game in 3:48 of ice time)
  
• Aiken: Kari Lehtonen (L, 5 goals allowed on 35 shots against)