Leading The Way

A quick glance at the League leader boards in various individual stats reveals the prominent placement of a pair of Caps:


Of course, none of those rankings is as sweet this morning as this one:

Brent Johnson Named Third Star Of The Week

Via Kukla:

NEW YORK (Nov. 10, 2008)—Goaltenders Roberto Luongo of the Vancouver Canucks, Steve Mason of the Columbus Blue Jackets and Brent Johnson of the Washington Capitals have been named the NHL ‘Three Stars’ for the week ending Sunday, Nov. 9.

...

THIRD STAR—BRENT JOHNSON, G, WASHINGTON CAPITALS

Making three consecutive starts for the first time since March 2007, Johnson posted a 2-0-1 record with a 1.63 goals-against average and .953 save percentage as the Capitals collected five of six available points. He made a season-high 42 saves in a 2-1 overtime loss at Ottawa Nov. 4, stopped 32 shots in a 3-2 victory over Carolina Nov. 6 and made 28 stops in a 3-1 victory over the New York Rangers Nov. 8. Johnson improved his season record to 3-1-2 with a 2.12 goals-against average and .929 save percentage in six appearances. Since Bruce Boudreau was named head coach on Nov. 22, 2007, Johnson is 9-3-3 with a 2.19 goals-against average and .925 save percentage as a starter.

Monday Roundup/Gamenight: Bolts @ Caps

[AP Preview - WashingtonCaps.com Preview]

It's hard to recall a game in which the starting netminder match-up was of as much interest to Caps fans as tonight's tilt between the Bolts and the host Capitals.

For the locals, the question of who the number one goalie is hasn't been as unclear as it is currently since, well, the guy who will likely be between the pipes at the other end of the ice tonight lost his last job, and it makes for a somewhat difficult decision for head coach Bruce Boudreau - if he starts Brent Johnson, it will be four straight starts for B.J. with a likely tougher opponent (Carolina on the road) looming on Wednesday night before a weekend home-and-home with the Devils; if he starts Jose Theodore and JT60 lays another egg, Gabby's an idiot for not playing the guy who was 2-0-1/1.63/.953 last week (on the other hand, a strong start by Jose and you've got a team with a ton of confidence and two goalies playing well heading into an intra-division roadie).

As for that guy at the other end of the ice, it will be Olie Kolzig, who is 1-1-1/2.67/.925 for a Tampa team that is at the bottom of the League in goals scored (but has been strong five-on-five) and is in the bottom third in power play and penalty killing efficiencies.

So this Monday night in November brings us our first chance to see (with a ticket or Versus, that is) the first overall pick from this past summer's Entry Draft, Steven Stamkos, former Caps Matt Pettinger and Steve Eminger, and long-time nemeses Vinny Lecavalier and Martin St. Louis. But most importantly to nearly all Caps fans, it's a chance to see an old friend:


Elsewhere 'Round the Rinks:

Is there some more bulletin board material emanating from the Caps' locker room? Check out Alex Ovechkin's thoughts on Paul Mara.... Via Life in Hockeywood (via Puck Daddy), TFP's 2009 Ice Girls Calendar is now available. "Miss Washington" notwithstanding, it's the perfect gift for the hockey fan who likes really flat-chested women.

Number One As The Number One

With tonight's 28-save, 3-1 victory, Brent Johnson is now 9-3-3 with a 2.19 goals against average and a .925 save percentage as a starter under Bruce Boudreau.

Saturday Roundup/Gamenight: Rangers @ Caps

[AP Preview - WashingtonCaps.com Preview]

No more Jagr. No more Avery. Can you really still hate the Rangers?

You're damn right you can (and if you need a new reason why, here are a couple).

The Rangers come into tonight's game with the most wins in the Eastern Conference, a 4-1-1 record on the road, a miserly 2.12 team goals against average (thanks to an eye-popping 90.3% effective penalty kill), a born-again Nikolai Zherdev and a brick wall named Henrik Lundqvist (who is 5-1-0/1.82/.936 in his last six games).

Against that stout team defense, the Caps will ice a squad that has scored four goals in its last three games (three of which came Thursday night) and has scored one goal or less in four of its last seven outings, partially the result of a sputtering power play that has gone 4-for-39 (10.3%) over the last nine games (the Rangers power play, by the way, had gone five-for-50 over the ten game span leading up to their last match, in which they lit the lamp three times with the extra man).

But as the Caps' power play efficiency has tanked, the penalty killing has excelled, to the tune of 89.7% effective over the last seven games (35-for-39). Put another way, over the last 65:47 of shorthanded ice time (slightly more than a full game plus a full overtime session), the Caps have only surrendered four goals - the team has a .931 save percentage and a 3.65 GAA (which is 0.21 higher than Jose Theodore's overall GAA on the season) while down a man (or two) over the past seven games.

That's some pretty impressive penalty killing. Perhaps even more impressive? Tonight's likely Caps starting netminder's numbers as a starter this season - Brent Johnson is 2-0-2/1.93/.936 in the games for which he's been on the ice at the opening puck drop.

So, on paper at least, we're looking at what should be a defensive battle where a single mistake can be the difference between two points and a night wasted... which means the game will be anything but low-scoring. Bet the over and hope for two points.

Random Nicklas Backstrom Thought:

Last season, Nicklas Backstrom played 15 games before finally scoring his first NHL goal in game number 16. During those first 15 games (playing mostly on the wing), he fired just thirteen shots on goal.

This season, through a dozen games, Nick has no goals, but has taken 28 shots on goal (including four in each of his past two games). It's only a matter of time before he finds the back of the net, of course, but even if he was scoring at the same shooting percentage rate as he did under Bruce Boudreau last year, he'd only have 2.78 goals so far. So really, even with that goose egg, he's not that far off where we might reasonably expect him to be in terms of goals (assists are another story - he "should" have at least nine by now based on last year's post-Hanlon rate, but there's another significant factor impacting that equation at present).

Elsewhere 'Round the Rinks:

Per NHL Director of Corporate Communications Michael DiLorenzo's Twittering, the Caps experienced a 74% year-over-year increase in merchandise sales at NHL.com in October, which was the fifth-largest increase in the League (Chicago was up a whopping 234%!). Alex Ovechkin had the second-best selling jersey for the month (behind Alex Semin's buddy), with Mike Richards, Henrik Lundqvist and Evgeni Malkin rounding out the top five. Good stuff, and h/t to KK to tipping me off to DiLorenzo's feed.... Speaking of Ovechkin and Malkin, with weeks having passed since their last meeting and months to go before they meet again, you'd think their rivalry wouldn't be a hot topic for Steel City journos. You'd be wrong.... Down on the farm, Simeon Varlamov picked up his first pro shutout (and Oskar Osala scored yet another goal) for Hershey and Joel Broda had a natural hat trick for Moose Jaw.... For those of you wondering about Jamie Heward, here's an update.

Thursday Roundup/Gamenight: 'Canes @ Caps

[AP Preview - WashingtonCaps.com Preview]

Ah, the Southeast Division.

If the Caps were in the Atlantic and facing the division leader tonight, a loss would drop them to eleven points out of first place. In the Pacific, a similar hypothetical would find them an even dozen points out of the top spot. In the Northeast, another loss would have the Caps sitting in the division's basement.

But not in the Southeast, baby. With a loss tonight, the Caps would be a half-dozen points out of first place, and with a win? Second place, just one win out of first.

For all the mediocrity we're seen out of the Caps so far this year - an MVP scoring champ who can't score, a high-priced goalie who can't stop pucks, a Calder Trophy finalist who couldn't find the net with a map and a compass, a defense that has collectively regressed since last Spring's run to the playoffs, and so on and so on - the Caps are still right there, regardless of tonight's result.

That is, of course, not to say that this evening's match-up with the 'Canes at the VC is meaningless, because it is anything but. It is, after all, the Hurricanes, and a four-point swing in October could be the difference between the playoffs and the links in early April - just ask them.

Carolina comes into the game scoring in bunches, but also allowing plenty of goals (especially lately, allowing four goals to Toronto in each of their last two games). They're 5-1-1 against the Eastern Conference, 5-1-2 on the road (let's hope they leave the bandwagon down in Raleigh), and 2-0-0 within our beloved Southeast Division. They've been good five-on-five, but in the lower-middle of the pack with a man (or two) advantage or disadvantage. Bottom line: these are the Carolina Hurricanes. You know them - always injured, always diving, always a tough out (and for more from their side of things, head over to CanesCountry).

The Caps will turn to their number two netminder (yes, he's still number two) tonight, and hope he can replicate his 42-save effort of Tuesday night. But if he doesn't, he doesn't - as Bruce Boudreau said yesterday, "If Brent goes in and is crappy tomorrow, then obviously I am going to use [Theodore] Saturday against the Rangers."

See? No drama. No "must-win" vibe. No real sense of urgency (whether one is needed yet or need be projected in any case is debatable).

And therein, perhaps, lies the problem. Because while everyone knows that Alex Ovechkin will score more than the 14 goals for which he's currently on pace, many of this team's issues are looming larger every day... and time's a-wastin'.

Quick Rehashed Notes on Tonight's Game:

When Rod Brind'Amour and Sergei Fedorov first played against one another in an NHL game, Bruce Boudreau was en route to a 40-goal/120-point season in the IHL, Glen Hanlon was one of Fedorov's teammates and Karl Alzner (remember him?) had just turned two-years-old. Chris Chelios, mind you, was in his eighth season in the League.... The Caps have more hat tricks (8) against Carolina/Hartford than against any other team in the League other than Philly (9), but Alex Semin (who has scored more goals against the 'Canes (13) than he has against any other team in the League) is the only current Cap to turn the trick against the 'Canes as a Cap (did somebody say Russian hat trick?).

Elsewhere 'Round the Rinks:

The boys at The PensBlog will no doubt love to hear about Semin and Alex Ovechkin being "young and passionate" pillow fighters.... This is what passes for journalism in certain Russian circles.... In case you're wondering where the Caps stayed while in Buffalo last weekend, here's a picture.... Puck Daddy looks at the brawler bargains around the League. Colton Orr? The Donald is not impressed.... The dude whose nut Mike Green nearly exploded in the playoffs last season is doing well for himself over in Switzerland.... An old timey Cap is going to be erased from the record books this weekend. Thanks for sucking, Olli Jokinen!... Caps prospect Eric Mestery has been traded (but is still Caps property).... Finally, you've gotta love HFBoards when it hooks you up with something like this (only 0:38 for me).

2007-08 Rink Wrap: Brent Johnson

From Backstrom to Steckel, we're taking a quick look at and grading the 2007-08 season for every player* who laced 'em up for the Caps during the campaign (and is still with the team) with an eye towards 2008-09. Next up, Brent Johnson.

Contract Status: 2008-09 salary of $825,000 ($812,500 cap hit); UFA following 2008-09 season
Age (as of October 1, 2008): 31
NHL Seasons (including 2007-08): 7
2007-08 Regular Season Stats: 19 games played, 7-8-2 record, 0 shutouts, 2.68 GAA, .908 SV%
Key Stat: Take away his second start of the season and Johnson had a 2.41 GAA and .913 SV%.
Ironic Foreshadowing Stat: Johnson became the first goalie other than Olie Kolzig to start a season opener for the Caps since Craig Billington in 2000.

The Good: Johnson recovered from a rough start to the season to end the year giving up more than three goals in just one of his final dozen appearances, a span that included a three-game winning streak (and a tough loss to the Flyers) in January and a couple of bad beats (by Carolina and Jersey) in February. He was 6-4-1 with a 2.38 GAA and .917 SV% under Bruce Boudreau and had a 4-3-1 overall record with a 2.18 GAA and .919 SV% against Southeast Division opponents. His .908 save percentage was the second best of his career, and he posted a 1.97 GAA and a .927 SV% at the Verizon Center.

The Bad: Johnson had a six-game winless streak (pre-Boudreau) during which he had a 3.61 GAA and a .878 SV%, and in five of his 17 appearances he had a GAA of 4.00 or higher (which is something to keep in mind if he ends up as the number two goaltender behind a guy who has never played more than 52 games in a season). Johnson had a 4-5-1 record with a 3.11 GAA and .897 SV% on the road and ended the season (early, of course) on an overall 1-3-1 slide.

The Vote: Rate Johnson on a scale of 1-10 (10 being the best) based on his performance relative to his potential for the season - if he had the best year you could have imagined him having, give him a 10; if he more or less played as you expected he would, give him a 5 or a 6; if he had the worst year you could have imagined him having, give him a 1.

The Questions: What's the maximum number of games you'd be comfortable seeing Johnson start for the 2008-09 Caps? What will it take for him to earn a 10 rating next year?

If you've missed any of the previous 2007-08 Rink Wraps, click here, get caught up, and vote - polls will stay open for a while.

* And by "every," we mean every one who played more than just a handful of games.

Mounds And Mounds Of Rebounds

"Every rebound is a personal challenge." - Dennis Rodman

Science may have purported to conclusively show that Olie Kolzig's reflexes are cat-like, but your eyes (and this blog) have told you all year that the cat ain't as quick as he used to be. And while his save percentage is a decent indicator of that, The Forechecker has another great metric for confirming what we already knew - Olie's simply not as spry as he used to be.

Now, before we dive into the numbers, recognize that these stats are team goaltending stats and as Olie has played roughly three-quarters of the overall minutes in net, he's only responsible for roughly three-quarters of the stats... in theory.

That said, let's cut directly to the chase: no team in the NHL has allowed a higher rebound shooting percentage against than the Caps (and it's not even close). According to the stats at On The Forecheck, 39.6% of the rebound shots (a "shot within two seconds of a previous shot on goal") that Caps goalies have faced have been put home (Los Angeles is second worst at 34.7%; Chicago is best at 17.7%).

As far as raw numbers go, the Caps are in the middle of the pack (15th) in rebound shots allowed, but have allowed the third-most rebound goals (40) tied with Florida and behind only Toronto (41) and L.A. (50). If Caps goalies had just an average rebound save percentage - 72.22% - they would have surrendered 12 fewer goals on the season so far. Are there standings points in those 12 goals? Who knows?

Enough numbers - what does it all mean?

To me, it's a pretty clear indication of either an inability of Caps goalies to recover from making an initial save to being well-positioned for a second save and/or an inability to steer rebounds into areas from which follow-up shots are less dangerous. To be sure, other factors are at play here - the blueliners' and backcheckers' ability to hinder follow-up shots, etc. - but this serves as decent confirmation that Caps goalies are giving up juicy rebounds into prime scoring areas and/or are failing to get back in position to make a second stop after denying an initial shot.

What it also means is that Caps goalies and defenseman aren't allowing an abnormally large number of rebound shots, contrary to what I had expected to find. So that's something good... right?

Friday Roundup/Gamenight: Caps @ Panthers

[AP Preview - WashingtonCaps.com Preview]

I hope the Caps can get fired up to play the Panthers more easily than I can to write about 'em.

Here's the quick rundown on the Kitties - they have the fewest home wins in hockey, are in the bottom half of the League in goals scored and allowed, have a good power play and a bad penalty kill, give up the most shots per game in the League, have lost two in a row and, well, you know the story on Richard Zednik.

On the Caps side of things, you know that Tom Poti is questionable (a line that's sure to get a grin from Ranger fans) for tonight's game, which means he's not playing, and while the goaltending has been very good (tonight is Brent Johnson's turn to keep it going, and he has very strong season and career numbers against Florida), the offense has run and hid against Southeast Division opponents since the All-Star break, scoring just three goals in three games, all losses.

So there it is. Another game that, on paper, the Caps should be able to win. Then again, intra-divisional road games when you're missing two top-four defensemen, your number one center and a 30-goal-scoring winger are never, ever easy and I wouldn't expect this one to be. Then again, have any of them been easy?

Elsewhere 'Round the Rinks:

I'll take the under on Sidney Crosby being able to take 20 five-year-olds in a fight (and I base this on Donald Brashear, by my math, being able to take 23)... Finally, one year ago today we discussed a potential trade rumor, a surprise demotion and a roster shuffle and previewed the evening's Caps/Bolts game, and two years ago today we recapped Day One for Caps Olympians and passed along a very special birthday wish.

Daily Awards

• Hart: Jonathan Toews (2G, including the game-winner, A, +3, 3 SOG)
  
• Ross: 8 players tied with 3 points each
  
• Norris: Alex Edler (2G, A, +3, 4 SOG)
  
• Vezina: Manny Legace (W, 39 saves on 40 shots against)
  
• Richard: Ruslan Fedotenko, Jonathan Toews, Alex Edler, Stephane Veilleux (2G each)
  
• Calder: Jonathan Toews (2G, including the game-winner, A, +3, 3 SOG)
• Aiken: Chris Mason (L, 3 goals allowed on 7 shots against in just 12:42 of work)
  

Getting Hot At The Right Time

Olie Kolzig's current three-game stretch of outings in which his save percentage has topped .900 (.917, .912 and .939) is his first such streak since the first three games of the season and, other than these last three games, the only time this season that he has gone three straight games with a goals against average at or below 3.00 was from December 22nd through the 27th.

For what it's worth (a lot, if you ask me), Brent Johnson is also hot, riding a four-game streak in which his save percentage has been at least .900, and his GAA has been at or below 3.00 in six of his last seven appearances.

On the season, the Caps are 20-6-4 in games in which their starting netminder's GAA is at or below 3.00 for that game (7-19-1 otherwise), 17-8-4 in games in which their starter's SV% is at or above .900 for that game (10-17-1 otherwise), 16-6-4 in games in which their starter hits both of those marks (5-2-0 in games in which he hits one or the other) and 6-17-1 in which he hits neither. This just in: good goaltending wins games.

To put it all in a bit of perspective, a goaltender with a 3.00 GAA would rank 42nd in the League (just ahead of Olie Kolzig, in fact), and a netminder with a .900 SV% would rank 36th. So we're not talking about the Caps needing great goaltending to win, we're talking about them needing mediocre goaltending. Put another way, with their offense, if the Caps can get even average goaltending the rest of the way (say, a 2.70 GAA and .910 SV%), they will most likely win the Southeast Division, and probably fairly easily - should the hot goaltending continue, so will the winning.

Kolzig: Not Stirring, But Shaken?

"I asked [Olie Kolzig] if he was upset about not playing [tomorrow night against Carolina] and he said he wasn't going to stir up anything in the media." - Corey Masisak

Whether that means that Olie is veteran enough to know that the media is not the place to stir up anything or whether he is veteran enough not to stir up anything at all, one thing seems clear - Olie isn't happy about not getting tomorrow night's start (one doesn't decline to stir up anything if there's nothing to stir up in the first place). And given how he has performed in his last two games and his career 26-13-8-1 record, 2.27 GAA, .922 save percentage and four shutouts against the 'Canes/Whalers, he'd be justified if he was a bit peeved.

So is there anything more to read into Brent Johnson getting the start in the biggest game of the season, or is Bruce Boudreau merely making sure both guys are both rested and in a rhythm down the stretch? It's almost certainly the latter. But I certainly don't blame Kolzig for wanting - and thinking he deserves - Friday night's start... and for not wanting to stir up anything in the media.

Update: Speaking of Kolzig and the media, Scott Burnside has a piece over on Olie at ESPN.com. Money quote:

[A]nalysts, former NHL netminders and other league sources have told ESPN.com they believe Kolzig appears to have hit the wall, that his reflexes and size and intuition, all qualities he possessed in significant amounts over the course of his career, are now failing to consistently get the job done.

Ouch.

Kolzig To Start Against Thrashers

According to Tarik, Olie Kolzig - not Brent Johnson - will get tonight's start against Atlanta.

As noted earlier, Kolzig is 1-1-0 with a 4.01 goals against average and an .843 save percentage against Atlanta this season, 14-11-4-2/2.77/.903 in his career, while Johnson is 1-0-1/1.48/.950 opposite the Thrashers so far in 2007-08 and 7-2-0-2/2.32/.918 in his career. Johnny's save percentage is .024 better than Kolzig's and his GAA is 0.38 goals per game better than Olie's on the season, and the two goalies are seemingly headed in different directions, as the two charts below show.


In this huge intra-divisional match up, I guess the coach is playing a hunch, because he sure ain't playing the numbers.

Saturday Roundup/Gamenight: Thrashers @ Caps

[AP Preview - WashingtonCaps.com Preview]

It's Groundhog Day! Rise and shine, campers, and don't forget your booties 'cause it's cold out there today.

Or not.

For the second time in a couple of weeks, the Caps will face a high-powered offense missing its best player, this time an Ilya Kovalchuk-less Thrashers squad that coughed up a two-goal lead at home against Buffalo last night and needed to come back twice en route to a thrilling (I suppose) shootout victory.

By all pre-game indicators, the Caps should win tonight. They have a winning home record and Atlanta has a losing road record, score more and allow fewer goals than the Thrash, come in more rested (with a day off, the Caps are 13-9-3 on the season, while Atlanta is 1-8-1 in the second of back-to-back games), and are playing better hockey lately. Of course, they still have to go out, play the game, and turn "should" into "did."

We'll expect to see Kari Lehtonen in goal for the Thrash (Johan Hedberg went last night), which may be good news - on the season, Lehtonen is 0-2-0 with a 4.56 GAA and .866 save percentage against the Caps (his career numbers versus D.C., however, are much better).

The big question when it comes to goaltending, though, is who will be in net for the home team. Olie Kolzig got the start (and win) on Thursday night and is 1-1-0/4.01/.843 against Atlanta this season, while Brent Johnson is 1-0-1/1.48/.950 opposite the Thrashers on the campaign and 7-2-0/2.32/.918 in his career. To me, that puts the decision in No-Brainerville, but we'll wait and see what Bruce Boudreau thinks.

As for the "O"-ffense (as in Ovechkin), you probably know that Alex has scored more goals (16) and has more points (32) in his career against Atlanta than against any other opponent. You may not know that Matt Pettinger also has scored more goals (6) in his career against Atlanta than against any other team. With that in mind, I'm going big on a prediction - Petty gets on the board tonight. It is, after all, a new month.

With the Thrashers (and Florida) now tied with the Caps in the crowded Southeast, this game is yet another biggie, a four-pointer within the Division. If the Caps are going to make the playoffs, they've gotta win the games they've gotta win, and this certainly is one of those. Barring an early burst from the visitors, expect the younger, bigger and better-rested Caps to take the two points on Saturday night.

Elsewhere 'Round the Rinks:

The Sports Junkies were guests of Ted Leonsis last night and talked (a little bit) about the experience on air yesterday (the second 2/1 Seg 2).... Garrett's got some info on a Caps Meet n' Greet.... Check out this sweet game-winning goal from last night's North Dakota/Minnesota game (and note a brief cameo by Caps prospect Joe Finley as the Sioux head off the ice).

Daily Awards

• Hart: Manny Legace (30-save shootout shutout win)
  
• Ross: 12 players tied with 2 points each
  
• Norris: Tobias Enstrom (Game-tying goal with :18 seconds left, A, +2)
  
• Vezina: Manny Legace (30-save shootout shutout win)
  
• Richard: Chris Drury (2G)
  
• Calder: Tobias Enstrom (see above)
• Aiken: Jocelyn Thibault (Shootout loss, twice surrendered a third period lead and allowed 2 goals on 9 shots against in 25 minutes of work)
  

Friday Roundup/Caps 2, Leafs 1

Photo: kb

A visibly tired Caps team did all of the little things right Thursday night, beating the Leafs 2-1. Heading in to the All-Star break, the Caps are now just three points away from the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, and one point behind Carolina for the Southeast Division lead. (Curiously, the Caps were in a similar position at the break last season: three points out of the eight spot and behind first place Carolina, by nine points.)

• David Steckel's boarding penalty with just over two minutes remaining in a 2-1 game was the cause of great agita. With no Steckel available on the PK and facing a 6-4 man advantage, Brent Johnson came up big with several stops in those final two minutes, earning him the #1 star of the game. (It's fuzzy, but I remember once hearing Chico Resch claim that, "a goalie is your best penalty killer.")
• Once again, the Caps defensemen took it to the Leafs. Steve Eminger got things going five minutes in to the first period with a crushing check on Tomas Kaberle. Then Poti on Blake. And Green on Tucker. (Shaone Morrison, a healthy scratch, was quite probably checking Kyle Wellwood, somewhere in the press box.) The Caps registered 22 hits, with Milan Jurcina responsible for six.
• Jurcina has become a monster of late. The hesitancy which marked his play not so long ago is now gone. Winning breeds..., a rising tide..., and all that.
  
• Have yet to crunch the numbers to verify this, but it seems that in the last few weeks Caps defensemen [Mike Green, aside] are taking more shots and getting more shots on net. Stats, to come. As will comparative numbers on blocked shots. The Caps added 17 more Thursday night, Jurcina and Quintin Laing (Q!) each with four.
  

And in your daily update on Capitals-related grooming habits, Olie Kolzig's beard is no more. You were dead-on, anonymous commentor from yesterday. Or should we call you Nostradamus?

Elsewhere 'Round the Rinks:

The 2008-09 NHL season to open in Stockholm and Prague....And play an 84-game schedule?....Brian Burke to the Leafs?...Sid's Winter Classic jersey sold for $45,000 at auction. His game-worn jersey for the Hockey Fights Cancer fundraiser is a bargain at $14,100. And Ovechkin's is a steal at $7500. Bid early and often....Happy 46th, Cheli.

Saturday Roundup/Gamenight: Panthers @ Caps

[AP Preview - WashingtonCaps.com Preview]

The Florida Panthers make their third visit to our nation's capital on Saturday night and the Caps will try to be something other than the gracious hosts they've been through the first two games, a pair of one-goal Panther wins.

The Kitties are coming off a thrilling 2-1 win over the Devils in Jersey on Friday night (yawn), as Craig Anderson outdueled Martin Brodeur between the pipes. Seriously.

With Anderson going last night, the Caps can expect to see Tomas Vokoun on Saturday. Vokes is 1-7-1 with a 3.31 goals against average since December 28, but is 3-1-0 with a 1.72 GAA and .947 save percentage against the Caps on the year. Memo to Caps skaters: remember that this guy catches with his right hand - aim accordingly (interestingly, right-handed catching goalies - Vokoun, Rick DiPietro and Jose Theodore - are 5-3-0 with a 1.85 GAA and .930 SV% against the Caps on the season). At the other end of the ice will be Brent Johnson (a decision documented more extensively here).

Things are lining up in the Caps' favor for tonight. The Panthers are 3-4-2 in the second of back-to-back games on the season (and are coming off that surprising win at Jersey in which they were outhit 19-3); the Caps are 10-8-3 with one day off. The Panthers are 2-10-2 on weekends, while the Caps are 7-5-1 in Saturday/Sunday games. And so on.

The Panthers are just what the Caps need in an opponent tonight - a beat-up, soft team with a cold goalie that can't score coming off a tight road game the night before. So why does this game scare the hell out of me?

Elsewhere 'Round the Rinks:

Have the Blue Jackets been scouting the Caps? Probably not.... The current installment of NHL.com's Southeast Division Notes focuses on Nicklas Backstrom.... The sky is falling! A Southeast Division team is guaranteed the third seed in the East!... Holy crap - a writer in Montreal might be on the verge of almost considering possibly thinking about taking the Caps seriously.... Oh, and if you were planning to take Metro to and/or from tonight's game, you might want to reconsider.

Daily Awards

• Hart: Drew Stafford (3G, including the game-winner, 2A, +3, 6 SOG)
  
• Ross: Drew Stafford (5 points)
  
• Norris: Dmitri Kalinin (3A, +4, 4 SOG)
  
• Vezina: Johan Holmqvist (27-save shutout win)
  
• Richard: Drew Stafford, Derek Roy, Daymond Langkow, Eric Staal (3G each)
  
• Calder: Tobias Enstrom (+1 in 20-plus minutes of a 10-1 loss deserves recognition)
  
• Aiken: Johan Hedberg (L, 7 goals allowed on 28 shots against in 31:21 of work)
  

Boudreau Goes To Plan B

Since no one else is doing it, I guess I'll step up and connect the dots.

Less than a month ago, Caps head coach Bruce Boudreau "said he has no plans to reduce [Olie] Kolzig's workload."

Three weeks later, Boudreau said "It's important, quite frankly, to get [Brent Johnson] playing more down the stretch. As much as Olie is our No. 1, we'd like to give him a rest every now and again."

And now Boudreau is ready to "increase Brent Johnson's workload in the second half of the season" under the auspices of "an effort to keep Olie Kolzig fresh." But reading between the lines, it's clear that Boudreau is going to Plan B.

What's changed?

Since Boudreau took the helm on November 23, Kolzig has gone 11-6-4 with a 3.17 goals against average and a .879 save percentage. Over that same span, Johnson has gone 3-1-0 (and that one was a tough loss in which Johnny stopped 14 of 15 Philly shots in 34 minutes in relief of Kolzig) with a 2.07 GAA and a .922 save percentage.

Frankly, the numbers speak for themselves. Boudreau has shown Olie the deference he deserves by giving him every chance to rebound (pun intended) and sharpen his game, but Kolzig can't quite seem to do so - he has a 3.69 GAA and .867 save percentage in his last seven starts and has given up four or more goals in four of them.

The other day I asked if we were past "If we're going to make the playoffs, it will be with Olie in net" and at "It's time to play the hot hand." And while I don't think we're at the point of a goalie controversy quite yet ("get a grip, man," as Tarik said), I think that his two netminders have left Bruce Boudreau with no choice but to play the hot hand, whether it's Kolzig or Johnson.

It's too late in the season to just sit around and hope that Kolzig regains his form (his goals against average is up over last year's mark and his save percentage is down from .910 last year to .888 this season despite the fact that the Caps are giving up more than 5.5 fewer shots against per game).

It's too late to play a guy for sentimental reasons or because you feel you owe it to him as some sort of lifetime achievement reward.

Boudreau may not "understand" goalies, but he does understand winning. That's why Johnson will start Saturday night's game against Florida - likely the most important game of the season thus far, given the Division and Conference standings. And that's why Boudreau has announced that Johnny could go on Monday night as well.

Make no mistake - Brent Johnson is not the second coming of Ken Dryden. But he has been known to go on hot streaks before and has earned the chance to show whether or not he can do it again. If he can't, Olie Kolzig be back in net for the vast majority of games. If Johnny can get on a roll and carry this team for a little while, however, it will only serve to make an already potent team even better. And at that point, we can loosen the grip and start talking goalie controversy.

Wednesday Roundup/Caps 4, Sens 2

[AP Recap - Game Summary - Super Stats]

Despite recent losses on the ice and in the lineup, the Ottawa Senators are still probably favorites to win the Eastern Conference (provided that Ty Conklin, at some point, returns to earth). That being said, I wonder who they're rooting against sneaking into the playoffs in the eight-spot.

The big guns were a-firin' for the home team Tuesday night at Verizon Center, and the result was another come-from-behind victory for the Caps over the visiting Sens. Some thoughts on the game:

• The Caps haven't lost back-to-back games in regulation under Bruce Boudreau (24 games).
  
• Tomas Fleischmann had a very strong game, and the shift on which he set up Alex Semin's second goal of the game was a great example of hard work combining with a touch of skill. It goes without saying that efforts like that will keep him in the lineup. On the night he had two helpers, a plus-one rating, three shots on goal (which tied him for the team high), four takeaways and no giveaways.
  
• Sticking with the second line, Semin's first goal was jaw-dropping Sasha circa '06-'07. The ice was littered with the jocks of both Wade Redden and Ray Emery.
• Did Brent Johnson earn a Thursday night start? Are we past "If we're going to make the playoffs, it will be with Olie in net" and at "It's time to play the hot hand"?
  
• Here's something that Caps and Sabres fans can agree upon: Chris Neil is ten pounds of monkey crap in a five pound sack.
• A little something for the ladies: Antoine Vermette was 13-for-15 (87%) in the faceoff circle and 1-for-1 in the shirt-off circle.
• Nicklas Backstrom was 4-for-13 (31%) in the dot and I don't have any topless shots of him.
  
• If my name was Cody Bass, I think I'd tell people it was short for Cody Badass.
• Alex Ovechkin and Mike Green scored goals, the sun rose, John Edwards' folks were millworkers, etc.
• Matt Pettinger's penalty was so stupid it hurt. Rest assured that it didn't go unnoticed - he only had four short shifts the rest of the game (excluding his first shift out of the box).
• Milan Jurcina had four blocked shots but no hits. Matt Bradley also threw a no-hitter, a rarity for him of late.
  

The Caps are now 6-2-0 against Canadian teams and, as luck would have it, get Edmonton on Thursday night. Last night's win got the Caps back on track, but this is a team that has to turn single wins into streaks. With a pair of second line wingers stepping up their game in the absence of their pivot, I wouldn't bet against such a streak starting right now.

Elsewhere 'Round the Rinks:

The first official Olie Kolzig retirement talk.... Nicklas Backstrom will participate in the Young Stars silliness.... Josh Godfrey is an OHL All-Star.... Complaining about a problem but offering no solutions always makes for a great article.... See if you can read the first two sentences of this post without laughing (then again, just getting up from this hit makes the assertion a little more understandable).... Finally, according to the Hockey Hall of Fame, on this date back in 1905, "'One-eyed' Frank McGee netted an all-time Stanley Cup record 14 goals in the Ottawa Silver Seven's 23-2 victory over the Dawson City Nuggets, who had travelled more than 4,000 miles by dogsled, boat and train to challenge for Cup." Chris Chelios was reportedly a healthy scratch for Dawson City.

Daily Awards

• Hart: Marian Hossa (First period natural hat trick, including the game-winning goal, 5 SOG)
  
• Ross: Ed Jovanovkski (4 points)
  
• Norris: Ed Jovanovski (G, 3A, +2, 5 SOG)
  
• Vezina: Jose Theodore (32-save shutout win)
  
• Richard: Marian Hossa (3G)
  
• Calder: Peter Mueller (3A, +1, 3 SOG)
  
• Aiken: Chris Osgood (L, 4 goals allowed on 17 shots against in 27:28 of work)
  

Saturday Roundup

Poor Larry Brooks, Bruce Garrioch, Jack Todd et. al. How are they going to sell papers and generate page views now that the object of their collective affection has jilted them? Dion Phaneuf is a nice player, and I'm sure he'd rather play in a "real" hockey town than... oh wait. Henrik Lundqvist will be a Restricted Free Agent this summer, and I'm certain he'd prefer the bright lights of... dammit. It's just not the same any more, is it, fellas?

You've got to feel for these guys. I know I do. In fact, I feel so bad that I'm going to help them out by writing their next column for them. Here goes:

On Thursday, Alex Ovechkin sent a message to the hockey world that he wants to be a [insert name of "real" hockey team of choice]. While it may seem odd to read that in light of the bank-breaking deal he just signed with the Washington Capitals, it's as clear as [select "Lake Placid" if American or "Lake Louise" if Canadian] in January.

As you may not know, the Great Eight's new deal includes a limited movement clause that kicks in when he's 27 - precisely when he is entering his prime years - which will, in essence, force Washington to deal the sure-to-be-disgruntled winger (after all, five more losing seasons playing to an empty house in a crime-ridden city will certainly take its toll on the talented Russian). It's unclear how many teams he will be able to refuse to be traded to, but sources close to the negotiation tell me that that number is anywhere from 27 to 28. Since he'll have some say in where he is dealt, then, it's a near certainty that he'll choose [insert "real" hockey city] to team up with his good buddy [insert name of Russian hockey player - it doesn't even have to be a player currently on your team of choice, as the player you choose will no doubt have been signed/traded for to be used as Ovechkin bait].

Ovechkin's esprit de corps [Larry, you might want to go with "camaraderie" here - it sounds less effeminate stateside] with his future teammates with his future teammates and loyalty to his future organization is further evidenced by the structuring of his deal. Besides the fact that Alex will be a bargain in the out-years of his contract (just imagine what [insert "Patrick Kane" if American or "John Tavares" if Canadian] will be making by then), he'll actually be a smaller cap hit than the salary he'll be making - both of which will make it possible for the [insert team name] to finally give Sidney Crosby the winger he so richly deserves (hey, Crosby will take less than market value for the honor of playing here, but let's not be ridiculous - he won't come too much cheaper than a guy like Eric Belanger).

So while it may take longer than you'd like for Number Eight to put on the [insert team colors] jersey he was born to wear, know that in his heart and in his mind, he's already a [insert team name]. Message received, Alex. Loud and clear.

You're welcome, Asshats.

Elsewhere 'Round the Rinks:

Brent Johnson was awesome for Hershey in a rehab start.... Why Michal Neuvirth was traded (again).... My Sheet, my rules.

Daily Awards

• Hart: Mike Sillinger (2G and the shootout game winner, +3, 2 SOG)
  
• Ross: Trent Hunter, Ruslan Fedotenko, David Vyborny, Adam Foote (3 points each)
  
• Norris: Adam Foote (3A, +3)
  
• Vezina: Josh Harding (W, 41 saves on 43 shots against)
  
• Richard: Nikolai Zherdev, Marian Gaborik, Mike Sillinger, Owen Nolan, Taylor Pyatt (2G each)
  
• Calder:Josh Harding (W, 41 saves on 43 shots against)
• Aiken: Hannu Toivonen (L, 6 goals allowed on 37 shots against)
  

Oh, To Be Average

A few days ago, someone expressed to me the opinion that even with average goaltending so far this year, the Caps would have five to eight more points and be right around the eighth spot in the Eastern Conference standings. I certainly didn't disagree with the assessment, but wondered how such an assertion could be quantified.

Well, thanks to Mirtle, I found an analysis over at Behindthenet Blog of five-on-five goals against that takes a goaltender's workload - including a broad measure of shot quality by accounting for the locations from which the shots faced are coming - and "shows the number of goals allowed by each NHL goaltender this season (minimum: 300 mins) and the expected number of goals allowed by an average goaltender."

Not surprisingly, the stats confirm what your eyes have been telling you - the Caps goaltending has been below average. In fact, Olie Kolzig and Brent Johnson rank 39th and 43rd, respectively, out of fifty in their statistical deviations from the expected norm and have combined to give up more than seven goals more than you'd expect from an "average" goaltender in five-on-five situations. Not good (but not Andrew Raycroft, so at least there's that).

What does that mean? It is, of course, still impossible to quantify how many points below-average goaltending has cost the Caps. But for a team that has the most one-goal losses in hockey and the second-worst winning percentage in the League in such games, it's a safe bet that with just average goaltending (remember, the seven "bad" goals above only take into account five-on-five goals), the Caps would be in much better shape right now. Five to eight points better? Quite probably.

The bottom line here, of course, is that without better goaltending the rest of the way this year, the Caps are going nowhere fast. And no one's demanding Vezina-caliber play - mediocre may very well be good enough. It certainly would be an upgrade over what they've gotten so far.

On a sidenote, this type of statistical analysis (check out The Forechecker for similarly great stuff) really is invaluable and adds a depth and understanding to the hockey world that only the blogosphere is providing. Kudos, guys.

Update (12/25): Five-on-four numbers are up, and it looks as if Olie is performing exactly as you'd expect an average goaltender to a man down but Johnny has actually saved the Caps two goals against. How 'bout that?

Saturday Roundup/Caps 3, Thrashers 1Gamenight: 'Canes @ Caps

[AP Recap - Boxscore - Super Stats - AP Preview - WashingtonCaps.com Preview]

Well that sure was nice, wasn't it? Any time you can go into the defending Division Champ's building on opening night with your number two goalie in net and your number two offensive weapon back home and leave with two points, it's a truly beautiful thing. A few thoughts on the game:

• It wasn't surprising to see the Thrashers come out flat - it happens almost like clockwork after a lengthy pre-game ceremony has the home team's players standing around for 15 minutes or so. Good on the Caps for taking advantage of the opportunity.
  
• After a possible momentum-shifting penalty kill by Atlanta at the end of the second, it was good to see the Caps bounce back in the third and fire 14 shots on goal. Last year, this team would have taken four or five and crumbled.
  
• Nice debuts for Michael Nylander (goal), Nicklas Backstrom (assist), Viktor Kozlov (game-winning goal) and Tom Poti (team-high 27:59 of ice time).
• Not such a nice game for Brian Pothier, who made two awful plays (one at the offensive blueline and a whiff on Marian Hossa at the top of the defensive zone), took two penalties and ended up playing only 12:18 - more than five minutes less than the next least-utilized blueliner, John Erskine.
• The Alex Ovechkin-Kozlov duo was fantastic, firing 13 shots between them. And Ovechkin's backcheck on Bobby Holik late should not go unmentioned.
  
• David Steckel's reach is incredible. So is Boyd Gordon's ability to get tossed around like a rag doll - and keep getting up to do his job.
  
• Brent Johnson was very solid, with the exception of the goal he allowed, but it's hard to complain after a 28-of-29 save performance... so I won't.
• The Caps were the better-disciplined team, taking only five penalties (Atlanta took eight), and outshot the Thrash 40-29. That's a recipe for continued success.
• That said, the powerplay (1-for-7) needs to be better, especially in five-on-three situations (granted, it might have been with Alex Semin in the lineup). Five-on-four, I'm not sure I wouldn't have Nylander out on the first unit, but that's just me.
• Mike Green played 20:35 and most of it was very good and confidently-played.
  
• Good to see Ken Klee still takes too many penalties.
• Matt Pettinger took seven shots on goal and the third line was a combined plus-three.
• The team was very good in the faceoff circle, winning 53% of their draws (led, surprisingly enough, by Kozlov at 56%).
  

Photo: AP

Next up, Carolina, who comes to D.C. for tonight's game after pasting the Pens last night. Hopefully they're primed for a bit of a let down... and hopefully the Caps aren't.

Daily Awards

• Hart: Mike Comrie (2G, including the game-winner, 2A, +2)
  
• Ross: Mike Comrie, Rick Nash (4 points each)
  
• Norris: Sergei Zubov (G, A, +1)
  
• Vezina: Pascal Leclaire (28-save shutout win)
  
• Richard: Mike Comrie, Eric Staal, Rick Nash, Jeremy Roenick (2G each)
  
• Calder: Bryan Little (G, +1, 3 SOG)
  
• Aiken: Ryan Miller (L, 6 goals allowed on 34 shots against)