Friday Roundup/Isles 5, Caps 2

[AP Recap - Boxscore - Super Stats - WashingtonCaps.com Postgame]

I had a horrible nightmare last night. There I was watching a Caps game and during a five-on-three power play, the Caps sent out an extra-man unit that had Joe Motzko manning one of the points.

Much to my dismay, this wasn't a nightmare from which I could wake up, and the Caps' punchless power play let them down yet again, going 0-for-6 in the 5-2 loss to the Isles (the penalty kill was a woeful 2-for-5, which certainly didn't help either). On the night, the Caps had 11:08 of time with the extra man and got all of six shots on Rick DiPietro - barely one shot per two minutes of power-play time.

And while Tom Poti may be a great passer, he had 9:09 of ice time with the extra man against his former team and didn't register a single shot on goal (through six games, he has 12 shots on goal total). I might be wrong, but in order to be an effective power play quarterback, doesn't at least a threat of a shot from the point have to exist?

I can't specifically recall each of the four Caps power-play goals for the season, but do remember that Alex Ovechkin's against the Rangers was on a broken play rush. What that means, then, is that in six games, the power play has "worked" no more than three times total.

First we were told that the problem with the power play was personnel. Then it was chemistry. Then it was a key injury. You know what the next reason in line is, don't you, Glen Hanlon?

Other observations from Thursday night's game:

• The Caps definitely came out with a "shoot first, ask questions later" style, firing more shots (13) in the first period than they had in the entire game (12) last time the two teams met.
• While the Isles first goal was a bit fluky (the "pass" out front was a fanned-on stuff attempt), there's got to be a forward backchecking Sean Bergenheim there (I'm looking at you, Michael Nylander and Tomas Fleischmann).
• The Caps were 7-for-17 (41%) in the faceoff circle in the offensive zone. That's a lot of instant offensive opportunities that never got going (Viktor Kozlov, for example, took eight offensive-zone draws on the night and won only three of them).
  
• Mike Green has arrived. His end-to-end rushes at the tail-end of each of two second period power plays were gorgeous and among the best scoring chances the Caps had all night (of course, he was also on the ice for both Isles even strength goals... such is life with Greenie).
  
• Do Ovechkin and Kozlov really have such great chemistry? Ovechkin was stick-handling brilliantly all night, but seemed to be trying to do a lot by himself a la last year.
  
• There's been a Tomas Fleischmann sighting! He should buy Nicklas Backstrom dinner for taking the hit and making the beautiful pass that set up the goal.
  
• The aforementioned Mr. Motzko makes Ryan Howard look like a contact hitter. Nice pass on the Ovechkin goal, though.
  
• I want last year's Chris Clark back. For that matter, why is the vaunted third line scoreless through a half-dozen games?
• Should we start a "Guess The Date" pool for Backstrom's first NHL goal? I'm going with Wednesday against the Bolts.
• Nylander is now a team-worst minus-5.
• It's amazing how one of your blueliners can go from first to last in ice time per game, but such is the story of Brian Pothier.
  

Next up... well, you know who. Perhaps we should start cheering for Boyd Gordon (who, by the way, turns 24 today) now: H-E-A-L, Heal! Heal! Heal!

Elsewhere 'Round the Rinks:

The 2008 NHL Draft Class looks like a winner. Hopefully there'll be good players still around when the Caps pick in the late-teens of the first round.... Caps may have pulled a mild upset in Round 1 of CBS's jersey tourney, but fell in a David vs. Goliath match-up in Round 2.... I wouldn't say that Dainius Zubrus is the most overpaid player in the NHL, but with no goals, two assists, seven shots on goal and a minus-8 rating through seven games, he's certainly a prominent name in the conversation. Put it this way, the Devils are paying him $3.4 million per year, meaning that they've shelled out $290,243.90 so far for those stats.

Daily Awards

• Hart: Daymond Langkow (2G, including the game-winner, assist, fight - paging Mr. Howe - +1, 3 SOG)
  
• Ross: Chris Campoli (4 points)
  
• Norris: Bryan Berard (Game-winning goal, 2A, +2, 7 SOG, 2 blocked shots)
  
• Vezina: Martin Biron (38-save shutout win)
  
• Richard: Bill Guerin (3G)
  
• Calder: Brian Little (G, +1, 4 SOG)
  
• Aiken: Martin Brodeur (L, 4 goals allowed on 18 shots against)
  

Thursday Roundup/Hurricanes 7, Capitals 2

[Boxscore - Recap]

Brutal. I didn't actually see the game (mercifully), so I'll let the pros (WaPo, WTimes) catch you up on all the gruesome details, but let's look at some of the numbers together, shall we?

• Number of goals scored by Carolina Wednesday night versus the Caps: 7
• Number of goals scored by Carolina in its other three games: 7
• Number of power play goals scored by Carolina Wednesday night versus the Caps: 3 (in 7 attempts)
• Number of power play goals scored by Carolina in its other three games: 0 (in 15 attempts)
• Number of goals scored by Atlanta this past weekend in two games against the Caps: 15
• Number of goals scored by Atlanta in its other two games: 0
  
• Number of power play goals scored by Atlanta this past weekend in two games against the Caps: 8 (in 23 attempts)
• Number of power play goals scored by Atlanta in its other two games: 0 (in 15 attempts)

Adding it up:

• Total goals scored by Atlanta and Carolina in three games against the Caps so far: 22
• Total goals scored by Atlanta and Carolina in their five games against other NHL teams: 5
• Total number of power play goals scored by Atlanta and Carolina against the Caps: 11 (in 30 attempts)
  
• Total number of power play goals scored by Atlanta and Carolina against other NHL teams: 0 (in 30 attempts)
  

This just in: the Caps defense is even worse than we feared, and as a result the penalties start to pile up and that leads to a flood of goals against. The Caps lead the League in PIMs per game (and all but 10 of those minutes are minors) and are near the bottom of the League in penalty killing - a horrible combination. Since opening night (when somehow Columbus was unable to score on any of its nine power play opportunities), the Caps have successfully killed off just 66% of the penalties they've taken. Craptastic. The offense (what offense other than AO?) and goaltending aren't without blame either, but we'll save them for another day.

Tonight the Isles come a-callin', and I'm sure that Messrs. Satan and Yashin are just licking their chops (they'd probably jog to D.C. if for some reason the team had travel issues). Coach Hanlon will throw Brent Johnson to the wolves, as the Farmington, MI native will get his first start in a Caps sweater (guess who's wishing he'd cleared waivers last week?). Of course the Caps are 2-0-0, allowing only two goals against per game outside of the Southeast Division. How's that for optimism?

In other NHL news:

• Atlanta goalie Mike Dunham left early in Wednesday night's game with a groin strain. He was replaced by Michael Garnett who stopped 29 of 30 shots in relief and was named the game's #2 star.
• The NHL's reigning Idiot of the Month, Sean Avery, is trying to make it two months in a row. I wonder what he's got in store for November.
• The NHLPA has started polling players on the issue of mandatory visors. Jes Gölbez sums up my thoughts on the issue, well, better than I could. Check it out.
  

Daily Awards

• Hart: Steve Sullivan (G, 2A)
• Ross: Eric Staal (G, 3A)
  
• Norris: Bret Hedican (G, 2A, +2)
  
• Vezina: Yann Danis (32 save shutout win - sorry Dwayne Roloson)
  
• Richard: Wayne Primeau, Matt Foy (2G apiece)
  
• Calder: Yann Danis (32 save shutout win)

Update:

• The Bruins have re-signed holdout defenseman Nick Boynton.
  

Do NHL Referees Hate The Caps?

[Editor's note: This is the first in a series of articles that will focus on officiating in the NHL. Look for subsequent pieces on what, precisely, the ref sucks and whether the ref, in fact, beats his wife.]

It seems a simple enough question: do the refs hate the Caps? There is a mound of evidence that would seem to support an affirmative answer - most recently Wednesday night's Tampa game - and any number of reasons for the supposed bias, from the team's employment of Dale Hunter and Jim Schoenfeld to the its historic lack of prestige to the size of its market. But what about empirical data? What does it tell us?

A glance at this season's disparity between power play opportunities and the number of times shorthanded reveals what we already knew - that the Caps have been shorthanded far more often than they have been on the power play (thanks to OldChelsea for doing the heavy lifting). A league-leading 49 more times, in fact. But, JP, the Caps are not a very skilled team and with blueliners like Ivan Majesky, Nolan Yonkman, et. al., they're bound to take a ton of penalties because they're so often out of position. Further, other than El Ocho, they don't have the kind of forwards that draw a lot of penalties. True. Take a look at the bottom three teams in the League in power-play disparity and that point is borne out- all three have what most would consider below-average bluelines and forwards:

28 Columbus 132 PP/158 TS = -26
29 Chicago 128 PP/172 TS = -44
30 Washington 119 PP/168 TS = -49

Not surprisingly, the teams at the other end of the spectrum have pretty solid defensemen and/or a handful of creative forwards:

1 San Jose 144 PP/104 TS = 40
2 Buffalo 134 PP/105 TS = 29
3 Tampa Bay 146 PP/124 TS = 22

So I'm right. Chalk it up to talent. Not so fast. How do you explain Phoenix having the fourth-best differential? Or New Jersey and St. Louis being in the "plus" column? Or Ottawa and Detroit being in the red? Damn. So it's not that easily explained, is it? No. In fact, this year's officiating has been so inconsistent, I'd throw the numbers out the window. But before we do, let's remember who's at the bottom of that list.

Having disregarded this year's numbers for inconsistency and its relatively small sample size, maybe the past few years can tell us something. In each year since at least 2000-01, the Caps have been in the red on power-play/shorthanded differential (thanks, Sapper):

2003-04: -67 (the Caps were shorthanded the most often in the League)
2002-03: -53
2001-02: -26
2000-01: -38

That covers some good teams (2000-01's 96-point division winner) and some bad ones (2003-04's 59-point Alexander Ovechkin winner), but consistently skilled and with a decent-to-good defense corps up until the latter part of the 2003-04 season. So why does the huge disparity persist? Because there is a League-wide officiating bias against the Caps. Haven't we proven that yet? Not quite.

If there was a systemic referee bias against the Capitals, one would assume that players are more highly penalized when they are Caps than at other times in their careers (the only other explanation for the Caps getting so many fewer power play opportunities than their opponents would be that the team puts out a relatively penalty-prone bunch or unskilled forwards, neither of which, obviously, would be the referees' fault).

So what do the numbers say? Do guys come to Washington and see their PIMs skyrocket? Do guys leave town and suddenly become Lady Byng candidates? A rundown of every player who has played for the Caps since the 1993-94 season and has (or had) played at least 100 games for the Caps and at least 100 NHL games for teams other than the Caps (the 2005-06 season has been excluded, for reasons touched on above) provides an answer to that question.

After more than 25,000 man games and 25,000 PIMs, the result is that the difference between those players' PIMs-per-game (PIM/G) as Caps and as non-Caps was that the players averaged .02091 fewer PIM/G as Caps (see Addendum). To put that in perspective, that's less than one minor penalty over the course of an 80 game season.

These numbers, of course, don't prove a lack of bias. They only tell a part of a portion of the equation - the "why are there so many calls against us?" part. They say nothing about why the Caps get so few opportunities or why the refs/linesmen blow their whistles when they do, wherein the bias (if there is any) may lie. But how does one measure missed calls? Or quick whistles? Or questionable goal/offsides/icing calls?

Now I'm confused. Do the refs hate the Caps or not?

Maybe. Maybe power play disparities are the result of the style of hockey a coach has been playing, team discipline, effort. Maybe it's personnel. Maybe it's personal (see Addendum 2). These numbers would seem to go a long way towards saying that the refs could care less what sweater a guy's wearing - over the long haul it all evens out - but these numbers don't account for missed (or neglected calls), inadvertent (or intentional) whistles at inopportune times, etc.

One thing is certain: individual games are often refereed poorly, frequently in one team's favor. Individual referees may even have it in for a given team. But the only way to conclusively say that "the refs hate the Caps" would be to conduct a study well-beyond the scope of anything we at The Rink are capable of. Perhaps a grant from the Leonsis Fund could get us on our way.

Addendum
Here are those players, with their individual differentials (positive meaning that the player averaged more PIM/G as a Cap, negative meaning the opposite):
Iafrate, Al (1.144739871)
Hatcher, Kevin (0.625767042)
Jones, Keith (0.416758159)
Sacco, Joe (0.181435278)
Cote, Sylvain (0.159500758)
Zubrus, Dainius (0.10404433)
Bulis, Jan (0.095997389)
Nikolishin, Andrei (0.062948181)
Lang, Robert (0.053882601)
Oates, Adam (0.021370869)
Khristich, Dmitri (-0.000121767)
Juneau, Joe (-0.023106738)
Zednik, Richard (-0.040154485)
Krygier, Todd (-0.046624738)
Miller, Kip (-0.065613496)
Johansson, Calle (-0.099254743)
Berube, Craig (-0.126100765)
Grier, Mike (-0.167784679)
Dahlen, Ulf (-0.176321116)
Black, James (-0.178002332)
Miller, Kelly (-0.185742862)
Ridley, Mike (-0.200729213)
Jagr, Jaromir (-0.231163274)
Housley, Phil (-0.231214054)
Reekie, Joe (-0.312656481)
Anderson, Shawn (-0.327272727)
Mironov, Dmitri (-0.396685705)
Eagles, Mike (-0.455546874)
Hunter, Dale (-0.62260782)
Johnson, Jim (-0.829434561)
Tinordi, Mark (-0.963402825)
Simon, Chris (-1.034261551)

Addendum 2
2005-06 Capitals games refereed by Don Koharski (per OldChelsea):
12th Oct at Carolina - L 2-7, PP 7-6 Carolina
22nd Oct vs Carolina - L 0-4, PP 12-5 Carolina
28th Oct at Tampa Bay - L 2-4, PP 8-5 Tampa
23rd Nov vs Tampa Bay - L 3-4 (SO), PP 7-4 Tampa
CAPS RECORD 0-4, aggregate score 7-19, PP 34-20 favouring opponents

For an in depth look at this season's game, organized by referee, click here.

Note: Special thanks to OldChelsea and Sapper for their statistical and analytical contributions to this post.

Early Power Outage No Cause For Concern...Yet

The "new look" Caps power play looked pretty good against Atlanta Friday night, despite finishing just 1-for-7 (14%). It looked a little worse on Saturday night against the 'Canes, but finished with a better success rate at 33% (1-for-3).

On Monday, however, it looked downright awful against the Isles, and failed to connect in any of the six opportunities the Caps had with the extra man, firing only one shot on goal in 8:45 of powerplay time. Included in that was 1:23 of 5-on-3 time during which the team didn't register a single shot on goal (the Caps are now 0-for-3 in 3:07 of ice-time with a two-man advantage in the young season, and have only two shots on goal), and the top unit of Alex Ovechkin, Viktor Kozlov, Chris Clark, Tom Poti and Mike Green has yet to light the lamp with the man advantage.

Here's a look at the shots on goal per minute of power play time through three games:

• 1.093 (@ Atlanta)
• 0.588 (vs. Carolina)
• 0.114 (@ N.Y. Islanders)

For the three games total, that number is 0.624 and the power play has clicked 12.5% of the time, meaning that they're scoring on approximately one of every nine power plays and getting a little more than one shot on goal per full two-minute advantage.

Of course, given the incredibly small sample size from which these numbers are taken, the absence of the team's second-best goal-scorer in two of the three games so far, the three games in less than four days, and the lack of experience playing together for most of the key players, I certainly wouldn't push the panic button quite yet. In fact, five teams are still looking for their first power play goals of the season, so perhaps we can chalk up some of these early-season struggles to lingering summer rust that is spread pretty much League-wide.

Nevertheless, it's something to watch, and, if this inefficiency continues, it probably won't be long before you see Michael Nylander on the top power play unit to try to get that group going. After all, that's part of the reason he was brought to D.C., no?

Game 3: Caps @ Flyers

[AP Preview - WashingtonCaps.com Preview]

I'm beginning to think I'm the only person in the hockey world not in awe of Martin Biron. Yes, the guy has three shutouts in his last four starts. But on Sunday, at least, he was the beneficiary of a great team defensive effort and a good bit of luck (his supporters will refer to this luck as "good positioning"). Was he good? Sure. Great? No. Good enough? That's all that matters, isn't it? But he's still the same Marty Biron that stopped just 22 of 27 shots on Friday night.

In fact, even with his Game 2 whitewash of the Caps, Biron has the third-worst save percentage in the playoffs. At the other end of the rink, Cristobal Huet - the source of some criticism for his performance so far - is a few percentage points ahead of Biron (but trails him by half a goal in GAA).

Two games is a small sample, to be sure, so let's take a look at the two netminders' performances thus far, goal by goal (for Game 1 video, click here, and for Game 2, click here). First, Biron:

• Game 1, Goal 1: Donald Brashear, even strength, wrist shot, 9 feet, previous shot attempt 29 seconds earlier; Tom Poti's shot/pass deflects to an open Brashear who deposits the puck in a gaping net
  
• Game 1, Goal 2: David Steckel, even strength, wrist shot, 19 feet, previous shot attempt six seconds earlier; Steckel finds himself open, Biron looks to be in position, but is beaten from a decent angle
  
• Game 1, Goal 3: Mike Green, even strength, wrist shot, 11 feet, previous shot attempt 45 seconds earlier; Alex Semin to Sergei Fedorov to Green past a helpless Biron
  
• Game 1, Goal 4: Mike Green, power play, slap shot, 44 feet, previous shot attempt six seconds earlier; with Patrick Thoreson writhing in pain, Green blows a slapper past Biron on what had become more or less a 5-on-3
  
• Game 1, Goal 5: Alexander Ovechkin, even strength, snap shot, 17 feet, previous shot attempt 49 seconds earlier; Red Jesus outwaits Biron and roofs it
  

And Huet:

• Game 1, Goal 1: Vaclav Prospal, even strength, snap shot, 58 feet, previous shot attempt before last faceoff; a seeing-eye puck beats Huet, who is completely screened by Scott Hartnell
  
• Game 1, Goal 2: Daniel Briere, even strength, snap shot, 40 feet, previous shot attempt before last faceoff; Briere exits the penalty box behind the Caps' D and beats Huet on a partial breakaway
  
• Game 1, Goal 3: Vaclav Prospal, even strength, wrist shot, 30 feet, previous shot attempt before last faceoff; the red sea parts for Prospal, leaving him with a golden opportunity that he buries
  
• Game 1, Goal 4: Daniel Briere, power play, wrist shot, 18 feet, previous shot attempt before last faceoff; with plenty of traffic around the crease Mike Richards finds Briere on a backdoor cut for a tap in
  
• Game 2, Goal 1: R.J. Umberger, even strength, wrist shot, 18 feet, previous shot attempt before last faceoff; John Erskine falls asleep, Umberger gets a breakaway and partially fans on his shot, sending a knuckler past Huet
  
• Game 2, Goal 2: Jeff Carter, even strength, wrist shot, 8 feet, previous shot attempt one second earlier; Mike Green coughs up the puck, Mike Knuble's initial shot isn't handled by Huet and Carter deposits the rebound
  

There's the raw data from the NHL's play-by-play feeds for the two games. The thing that jumps out at you right away, of course, is that there aren't any bullets under Biron's name that begin with "Game 2." Deeper than that, however, you notice immediately that Biron has only allowed one goal from more than 19 feet away, while Huet has allowed a trio of such tallies. Here are each of the goals in a tidy little graphic:


Which of these goals would Huet like back? I'd guess he isn't thrilled with allowing Briere's first in Game One, perhaps the Umberger goal and the rebound on Carter's goal. In other words a partial breakaway, a full breakaway and an odd-man rush.

As for Biron, I'm sure he'd love another chance at stopping Ovechkin, and can't be happy with the Steckel goal.

What's interesting is that Huet has been an absolute wall shorthanded, stopping 18 of the 19 shots (.947 SV%) he's seen on Flyers power plays, but has only an .884 save percentage at even strength - much of that can be attributed to breakdowns in the defense in front of him with the manpower level (I count four such instances). Biron has had a more even effort, with a .909/.892 split, in large part because the defense in front of him (with one incredibly glaring exception) hasn't made too many mistakes. The dreaded matchup entering the series - the Flyers' second-ranked power play against the Caps' 25th-ranked penalty kill - has yet to really burn the Caps and, contrary to what the regular season stats may have predicted, Philly has been the better team five-on-five.

The other notable stat is the shot disparity. Through two games, the Flyers have outshot the Caps 63-51. Now, that doesn't sound like much, but 12 shots against any goalie, statistically, is likely to yield a goal (11 saves on 12 shots against is a .917 save percentage). In a playoff series as tight as this one is expected to be, one extra goal over two games can certainly be the difference.

Further to that last point, the Caps have had 15:17 of power play time through two games, but have managed only 11 shots on goal. Philly has had 13:49 of extra man time and, as mentioned above, has fired 19 shots on Huet. The Caps have simply got to find a way to get pucks to the net on the power play.

Alright, bottom line time. It's no great secret that the Caps defense has been shaky so far, but if they can tighten up, there's every reason to believe that the Caps can get right back into the driver's seat in this series. Even if the defense makes a mistake or two, Huet is playing well enough to keep them in every game and hasn't yet come close to playing his best game of the series. Martin Biron, on the other hand, has had an unimpeded view of nearly every shot he has faced, and has been average... and he probably has already played his best game of the series.

Wednesday Roundup/Gamenight: Caps @ 'Canes

[AP Preview]

Just six days after Alex Semin's late heroics saved the Caps from falling six points behind the 'Canes in the Southeast Division, Washington heads to Raleigh tied for first place with a game in hand (note: first "game in hand" mention of the season). And while the Caps have enjoyed the comforts of home thus far this season (they're the only Eastern Conference team without a regulation loss in their own building), they've found the road to be considerably less friendly - their five points away from home are tied for the fewest in the East; they have scored 3.57 goals per game as hosts, but just 2.43 away from the VC and have allowed an average of just two goals against per game on their slushy sheet, but 3.71 on the road. Basically, the Caps have been The Stone Roses' eponymous debut album at home, and their brutal follow-up record on the road.

But with a bounce here or there, the story could be much different - three of the Caps' five road losses have been by a single goal, a trio of 2-1 decisions (the other two losses are never again to be spoken of).

So what does the team need to do to get over the hump and starting picking up some W's on the road? One big question revolves around the top line. The trio of Alex Ovechkin, Alex Semin and Nicklas Backstrom (and, before he got injured, Sergei Fedorov) has produced five of the Caps' last eight even strength, non-empty net goals, but were singled out as being "too cute" on Monday night. Perhaps more importantly, the line's successes have come on a three-game homestand, where line matching was in Bruce Boudreau's favor. If they take this show on the road as is, however, they can expect a heavy diet of Rod Brind'Amour, Tim Gleason and Carolina's other top defensive players, raising the obvious question as to why you'd want to put your two best scorers on one line and rather than forcing Peter Laviolette to pick his poison? I'm on record as being against the regular use of an "Eggs" line (i.e. any line with both Alexes on it), especially on the road, but I have about as much influence on the Caps roster as I do on U.S. foreign policy ("Mr. President, that briefing you requested on the deportation of Sidney Crosby..."), so we'll see how the man in charge rolls.

The Caps would also help their chances at victory if they can get the power play going - they're stuck in a 1-for-16 (6.3%) rut with the extra man over their last five games, and lately have had incredible trouble entering the zone and/or establishing possession once there. It's a much larger problem than any one player, but there's one guy who got a big contract this summer because he makes the power play go, and it's been stuck in neutral for nearly a month. Put another way, how the hell can the season be 14 games old with Mike Green still looking for his first power play assist and Alex Ovechkin still looking for his first power play goal of the campaign?

For their part, the 'Canes are getting healthy (for them, at least), and having Matt Cullen as a second shut-down center should Gabby keep the Alexes paired isn't a bad option (to say nothing of how much he and Joni Pitkanen will help Carolina's power play). Expect to see Michael Leighton between the pipes for the 'Canes (the 27-year-old netminder has never faced the Caps), and Eric Staal flopping around on the ice like a fish on deck.

The bottom line on tonight is that it's never too early for a statement game, and after last week's win over Carolina, taking two points in Raleigh would certainly make a bold proclamation as to who this year's beast of the Southeast is. But no one's going to be too scared of a team that can't win on the road.

Elsewhere 'Round the Rinks:

Matt Cooke on being a teammate of both AO and Sid the Kid.... Bear Tracks, Bear Tracks!... If you're wondering about Hershey's line combos, wonder no longer.... John Carlson: elite player (scroll about halfway down).

Cap Killers: The Enemies Within

I didn't want to write a negative column after such an uplifting win last night, but a couple of things were on my mind (and now on your screen), so here's a quick look at some guys who aren't pulling their weight in the early goings for the Caps:

• Brian Sutherby. Suts is billed as a solid two-way center and future leader, but through seven games he has a minus-4 rating, no points, has taken only three shots on goal and has been in the penalty box for three of the 14 power play goals the Caps have allowed. By comparison, four teams have allowed three or fewer power play goals so far this year.
  
• Mathieu Biron. It didn't take long for this guy to make the s**tlist, did it? Biron has a minus-5 rating, has taken two penalties that have lead to opposition power play goals, and has already been healthy-scratched once. Unacceptably bad.
• Jeff Friesen and Andrew Cassels. These two supposedly skilled veteran leaders, have combined for one goal and four assists in 14 man-games. I'll cut the two (and linemate Petr Sykora) a little slack as they've been skating together for all of two weeks, but they need to step it up, especially on the power play.
  
• Ben Clymer, Matt Pettinger, Boyd Gordon. Obviously this trio is not looked to to score often, but in 17 man-games none of them has registered a point and the three are a combined minus-10. Come on, boys. We need something, anything out of you.

Now, to end with the positive: even with a brutal blueline, horrid penalty killing (24th in the League), ill-timed and all-too-frequent penalties (most PIMs in the League), shaky-at-times goaltending and an ice-cold power play (scoreless in the past three games), the Caps are just one game under .500, Steve Eminger is starting to emerge and Alex Ovechkin is undeniably the real deal. Oh, and the Caps' three wins are three more than a certain western Pennsylvania team has. Which is nice.

Sunday Roundup/Lightning 5, Caps 2

[AP Recap - Game Summary - Super Stats - WashingtonCaps.com Postgame]

Following Saturday night's 5-2 drubbing at the hands of the visiting Lightning, the Caps have four days before returning to the ice Thursday night in Miami. If ever there were a time to pull the trigger on a coaching change, that time is now.

It's Rememberance Day and the Caps have the worst record in hockey overall and over their last ten games (tied with a handful of other floundering teams there). They are near the bottom of the League in goals for, are in the bottom-third in both special teams categories and have only two home wins in seven tries.

Without question, injuries to key players have played a part, and a coach can only play the cards his general manager has dealt him. But there are problems with this team that go beyond injuries, and those are the more troubling issues.

Even with the injuries, any team with a sniper like Alex Ovechkin and a playmaker like Michael Nylander needs to be more effective on the power play (and, frankly, with skill players like the Caps have, they shouldn't be in the bottom-third of the League in power play opportunities per game). There are teams with a lot less talent who have a much better power play than the Caps, and that is, at least in part, due to coaching.

The fact that Donald Brashear not only continues to get a sweater every night but also power-play time while Mike Green can't get a sniff of extra man action and Chris Bourque gets called up to provide a spark and barely sees the ice is, at least in part, due to coaching.

Most importantly, that a team can come out flat to start a game or a period at home against a division rival and fail to play with a sense of urgency when the game is still very much on the line is, at least in part, coaching.

It's easy to dismiss all of this as an emotional reaction to yet another disappointing loss, but these aren't the types of problems that were unique to last night's game. If you've seen a team that gives a full sixty-minute effort every night while playing for an astute tactician who makes all the right in-game adjustments and knows just what buttons to push to motivate his team, then you've been watching a different team than I have for the first seventeen games of this season.

I love what Glen Hanlon has given to and done for this organization - he guided an under-manned team of kids through incredibly tough times and did it with class and sensitivity. But at this point, I fear he's wandering the desert - these aren't supposed to still be those same incredibly tough times. Hanlon's message is either not the right one, or it's falling on deaf ears. Either way, the sum of the parts adds up to a need for a new voice to get this team back and headed in the right direction.

Elsewhere 'Round the Rinks:

Bruce Garrioch "reports" on the Ovechkin contract negotiations and says that "[i]t's believed Ovechkin's camp, which includes his mother Tatiana, is looking for a bigger deal [than Sidney Crosby's], in the $9-to-10 million range." The missing data, of course, is the length of the deal (it's as if your friend were to set you up on a blind date with a girl who weighs "around 150 pounds" but doesn't tell you whether she's 4'9" or 5'9"), but one quick question: what makes AO think he's worth 3-15% more than Sid?... Kevin Paul Dupont has a lengthy profile on Chris Bourque in today's Boston Globe - just in time for C-Bo's return to Hershey.

Daily Awards

• Hart: Kimmo Timonen (G, 3A, +1)
• Ross: Kimmo Timonen (4 points)
  
• Norris: Kimmo Timonen (G, 3A, +1)
  
• Vezina: Tim Thomas (W, 45 saves on 46 shots against)
  
• Richard: Daniel Alfredsson, Shawn Horcoff, Anze Kopitar, Alexei Ponikarovksy, Marian Hossa, Rod Brind'Amour (2G each)
  
• Calder: Andrew Cogliano (2A, +1)
  
• Aiken: Marty Turco (L, 6 goals allowed on 34 shots against, including 5 on 14 in the third period)
  

Steve Eminger: Stud Or Stiff?

Caps blueliner Steve Eminger would be the first to tell you that he stunk on ice last night against Tampa (actually, I might be the first to tell you that and Steinberg might be the first to tell you that I'll tell you that, but I digress).

Through 29 games this season, Emmy, now in his third full NHL season, has no goals, five assists and a minus-8 plus/minus rating, putting him on pace for a 14 assist/minus-19 campaign, this on the heels of a five-goal, 13-assist, minus-12 season last year. Per TSN.ca's scouting report, Eminger "[h]as the tools to quarterback the power play," "[d]isplays plenty of offensive acumen," and "can also be a solid defender," but it's simply not translating on the ice. By most accounts, he has taken a big step backwards this year, and the numbers would seem to back that up (though he has played better since being paired with John Erskine).

Speaking of numbers, let's take a look at some, shall we? Currently, he's third among the team's defensemen in time-on-ice-per-game (18:22) and shorthanded ice time per game and getting next-to-no power play ice time. Contrast that with last year, where he was second among blueliners in TOI/G (21:20), third in SH TOI/G and actually got power play minutes. Obviously minutes are earned and not handed out like candy on Halloween and the signing of Brian Pothier and emergence of Mike Green have cut into Emmy's minutes as well, but part of the decrease in production is no doubt the result of the two-plus minutes of power play time per game that he has lost.

So how should we measure Eminger's progress (or lack thereof)? How about comparing Eminger to other blueliners drafted after back in 2002 (excluding top-five picks Jay Bouwmeester and Joni Pitkanen who are quite simply another level of defenseman). Because of the Caps' rebuild, Eminger has played more games than any of them and has outscored them all too (though Chicago's Duncan Keith is about to pass him [sidenote: never trust a man with two first names]). But is there a blueliner taken after Eminger that you'd rather have right now? Any Trevor Daley fans out there? Perhaps Keith, and I've heard good things about Grebeshkov, Babchuk and Koltsov, but haven't been impressed. Point being that it's too early to tell on these kids.

What about defensemen drafted in a similar spot in the draft? Here's a list of all the defensemen taken between tenth and 15th overall in the five years leading up to the 2002 draft (in which Eminger was taken 12th): Brad Ference, Branislav Mezei, Jeff Jillson, Ron Hainsey, Dan Hamhuis and Igor Knyazev. Do you see anyone there who Eminger can't be better than in the next one-to-five years? Maybe Hamhuis?

Emmy's points-per-game might not be where you'd like, but the experience he has gained in the NHL at such an early age should prove invaluable down the road. And that's wherein the problem lies. How long will it be until we reach that point down the road where Eminger is the "top two defenseman" TSN think he can be?

It's no secret that defensemen take longer to develop than forwards, so let's take a look at some other very successful "top two" blueliners. Through 124 NHL games, Eminger has five goals, 24 assists and is minus-33. Dan Boyle? Through 129 games in the show, Boyle had 10 goals, 29 assists and was minus-17 for the Florida Panthers (of course Boyle was signed as an undrafted free agent, so expectations were lower). Sheldon Souray? Through 130 NHL games, Souray had four goals, 14 assists and was +23 for stingy Devil teams. Bryan McCabe? 162 games, 15 goals, 36 assists, -26 for the Isles. Philippe Boucher (who was taken 13th overall back in 1991)? 124 games, 15 goals, 32 assists, -26.

You get the point.

The bottom line is that at barely 23 years old and with less than two full NHL seasons' worth of experience it is far too early to give up on Eminger and call him a bust. What is most troubling, however, are the mental errors that are so apparent in his game. Whether it's not knowing when to step up to play a puck versus backing off to play the man or flipping a puck over the glass from the defensive zone, these mistakes have been killers and have been quite disappointing. But there have been plenty of extremely successful hockey players who have compensated for a lack of natural hockey sense with hard work and raw skill. Hopefully Eminger has enough of the former to develop the latter and make him a reliable top-four defenseman someday in the not-too-distant future.

The Current Power Outage: To Worry Or Not To Worry?

Heading into tonight's game against the Flyers, since Michael Nylander was shelved for the season on January 15, the Caps power play had clicked at an impressive 23.7% (9-for-38), an efficiency that would have the team 3rd in the League if it was their season-long conversion rate. Overall, the team is 10-for-53, a very respectable 18.9%, with Nyls out of the lineup this year.

That's the "glass is half full" look at the what the team has done with the extra man and without their top playmaking pivot (with apologies to young Mister Backstrom).

Now, the flip side of that coin. The Caps have scored just one time in their last sixteen opportunities with the man advantage, not once in their last four games, and have given up two shorthanded goals against (including last night's putrid 3-on-5 shorty) since their last power play goal. That's not even the "glass is half empty" take - that's "the glass is broken."

Over the course of a season, one can pick and choose four game stretches to show any number of things, so the current stretch is perhaps no more meaningful than the first four games sans Ninety-Two in which the power play was successful 36.3% of the time. After all, on the season, a power play that fired at only 14.6% under Glen Hanlon's direction has been markedly better - 19.2% - under Bruce Boudreau (an efficiency that would be 6th best in the League on the season). So let's just let the law of averages play out... for now.

Wednesday Roundup/Flames 2, Caps 1

[AP Recap - Game Summary - Event Summary - WashingtonCaps.com Recap]

You could say that a team that fails to score when handed a nine-minute power play doesn't deserve to win that game. You could also say that a team that takes eight consecutive penalties doesn't deserve to win that game. And while both of the above assertions are true, they both also circle back to the one question in my mind last night - "Why was the oldest guy on the team just about the only one playing like he cared?"

Some thoughts on the game:

• The only reason the Caps were in that game was Jose Theodore (there's your silver lining), who now has given up only five even strength goals on the season after surrendering a power-play marker to the Flames.
  
• I've asked the question before, but when did it become acceptable (almost expected) to start a fight with a player who lays a clean hit on a teammate of the instigator-to-be? If more referees had the cajones to penalize these outbursts as Bill McCreary and Chris Lee did with Rene Bourque, maybe the stupidity would end (though if the offending player knows a parade of questionable equalizing calls will follow, I doubt it will have much impact).
• Nice hit by Tyler Sloan, by the way.
• Caps who had more shots attempted, blocked or missing the Calgary goal than shots on Miikka Kiprusoff included Alex Ovechkin, Alex Semin, Mike Green and Chris Clark.
  
• I fear that John Erskine (of The Flying Erskines) has gone from suck to blow.
  
• Michael Nylander's penalty to break up the Caps' monster power play was one part stupid, two parts lazy.
• Half of the 18 Caps skaters had at least one minor penalty. Not OK.
  
• Every time Todd Bertuzzi gets hit against the boards, an angel gets its wings.
• The Caps won only 43% of the game's faceoffs (Nicklas Backstrom and David Steckel were particularly bad, combining to go 2-for-10; Sergei Fedorov was the only Cap above 44%, winning 57% of the time), and won only 31% of their shorthanded draws.
  
• Shaone Morrisonn must... clear... that... puck on the 3-on-5.
• And Green must... get... that... puck... deep on the 4-on-5.
• The second period may have been the worst period of the year so far.
• I know you don't usually see nicknames for defensive pairings, but if you did, and if you put Erskine and Sloan out together, I'd vote for calling them "Sloan and Slower."
  
• Tomas Fleischmann had 2:55 of ice time killing penalties. Please, hockey gods, don't ever make me type that again (Fleischmann actually had a pretty good game, though, and tied with Nylander for the team's best Corsi Rating on the night).
• The Caps had only five shots in 11:05 of power play time. If that doesn't cry out "too cute," I don't know what does. Nevermind - yes I do.
  

As bad an effort as that was - and it was horrid - it was just one game, and it's now history. Off to Phoenix for a date with the Great One's grunts on Thursday. I'll put the pot of coffee on now.

Elsewhere 'Round the Rinks:

The Alex Ovetjkin blog has two videos from a team-building outing at Aberdeen Proving Ground that are well worth your time.... Power Rankings galore, with the Caps at 15th (down 8 spots) at TSN, 10th (down 1) at CBC, 10th at USAToday (who also has some Semin and Green love), 8th at The Sporting News, holding steady at 5th at The Hockey News and 7th at The Detroit News (h/t to GJM on all of those links).... Alex Semin is clutch (and Mike Green ain't too shabby either).... Dan Sernoffsky's "Bear Tracks" is always so chock full of awesome (as is Moose Tracks, for what it's worth).... They're not too upset about losing Matt Pettinger in Vancouver.... Finally, this is a hell of a way to spend a day at the rink.

Sunday Roundup/Pens 2, Caps 1

[AP Recap - Boxscore - Super Stats]

If it wasn't for the "Let's Go Pen-guins" cheers still reverberating in my head, I think I'd be pretty comfortable with last night's game. The effort was fantastic (kudos to Glen Hanlon for readying the troops), Boyd Gordon did a sensational job on what's his name, and the Caps were the more physical team by miles. Frankly, if it wasn't for Marc-Andre Fleury, the Caps win last night's game.

Of course, that's a big "if" (recall my feelings on "ifs") , and at the end of the night, the Caps lost their fourth straight game to fall under .500 for the first time this season. Some more thoughts on the game:

• As brilliant as Brent Johnson was - and he was brilliant - I'm sure he'd like the game-winner back.
• Did anyone catch Donald Brashear's nifty stick-handling in the first period? Maybe that rush was the reason he forgot how to fight for the first three-quarters of his bout with Georges Laraque. Unluckily for Gorgeous George, Donny remembered how to fight before it was too late.
• Asking your penalty killers to do their job four times in a period is a tall order, and in last night's second period the man-down unit failed on that fourth kill.
  
• We've already discussed Joe Motzko a bit (Tarik says it's just a paper transaction, though, so don't get too excited), so I won't do so again here other than to once again question why he led the team in power play ice time but Mike Green could barely get a sniff with the extra man.
• Alex Ovechkin continues his great all-around play, registering eight shots on goal, five hits, two takeaways, no giveaways and a blocked shot.
  
• Gordon and David Steckel combined to win 18 of their 32 faceoffs (56%). I got a chance to ask Hanlon about how important it was to get Gordo back in the lineup (at about 5:30 of his presser):
• Tomas Fleischmann has had his two best games of the season playing with the Swedes instead of the Russians. Coincidence? Probably not. One gets the feeling that he was intimidated playing on the Ovechkin line because everyone knows who's supposed to get the puck on that line. Playing with the Swedes, however, more is expected of him as a finisher, and he's not afraid to shoot when he's got the puck on his stick. When Alex Semin comes back, I wouldn't be shocked to see a little shuffling that splits the Swedes up with each centering one of the top two lines and Viktor Kozlov and Flash filling the top two right wing spots.
  
• Tom Poti actually had four shots on goal last night (and attempted another two), but I'll repeat it until I'm blue in the face - he needs to shoot more on the power play to establish the threat of a shot which will, in turn, open up more down low. You can talk all you want about getting a Tomas Holmstrom-type in front of the net, but if shots aren't coming from the point, the traffic in front is somewhat wasted. At least when Brian Pothier is back there, he's not afraid to tee it up (and he was rewarded last night with the Caps only goal - a power play blast from the point).
  
• If I hadn't sworn off the use of the term "snake-bitten," I think Chris Clark, Matt Pettinger and Nicklas Backstrom would all be worthy of the moniker.
• Speaking of Backstrom, the kid is simply a brilliant hockey player. His "hockey smarts" are off the chart, and his skill is right there too. And he's only played seven games in North America.
  
• Did Evgeni Malkin play last night?
  
• Oh, and the White Out? Not so much.

Now it's back to the Southeast Division for the Caps after an unfriendly run through 60% of the Atlantic and a brief run-in with (run-over by?) a Northeast team. If they can play like they did last night, they'll leave Wednesday night's game against Tampa two points richer.

Elsewhere 'Round the Rinks:

Michal Neuvirth was apparently sharp in victory last night for Plymouth. For the season, he's now 2-3-1 with a 2.99 goals against average and an incredibly impressive .924 save percentage (good enough for fourth in the OHL).... Ben Clymer scored twice for Hershey last night in their first win of the season.... Lastly, I want to take a moment to bid a fond farewell to OFB's Empty Maybe, who is hanging up the keyboard. The blogosphere - especially here in D.C. - is weaker today for his absence. Hope to see you around in meatspace soon, Empty.

Daily Awards

• Hart: Jarome Iginla (Game-winning goal, 2A, +1, 6 SOG)
  
• Ross: Jason Williams (4 points)
  
• Norris: Roman Hamrlik (3A, +1, 3 blocked shots)
  
• Vezina: Manny Fernandez (26-save shootout shutout win)
  
• Richard: Mats Sundin, Vaclav Prospal, Simon Gagne, Kirk Maltby (2G each)
  
• Calder: Josh Harding (W, 33 saves on 34 shots against)
  
• Aiken: Andrew Raycroft (L, 5 goals allowed on 38 shots against, including 4 goals allowed on 15 shots in the third period)
  

2007-08 Rink Wrap: Tom Poti

From Backstrom to Steckel, we're taking a quick look at and grading the 2007-08 season for every player* who laced 'em up for the Caps during the campaign (and is still with the team) with an eye towards 2008-09. Next up, Tom Poti.

Contract Status: 2008-09 salary of $3,500,000; UFA after 2010-11 season
Age (as of October 1, 2008): 31
NHL Seasons (including 2007-08): 9
2007-08 Regular Season Stats: 71 games played, 2 goals, 27 assists, +9, 46 PIMs
Key Stat: Poti was the only Caps defenseman to average 17 even strength minutes, two-and-a-half power play minutes and three-and-a-half shorthanded minutes per game.
Unsurprising Stat: His two goals tied a career single-season low.

The Good: Poti was second among the team's defensemen in points, assists, plus/minus, shots on goal, power-play points and average ice time per game and lead the team in blocked shots and shifts per game. He nearly doubled his even strength production (from 11 points to 21, including a pair of even strength goals in 2007-08 after none in 2006-07) and finished the season strong with both goals, 15 assists and a plus-17 rating in his final 35 games. Poti had six multi-point games and his fewest PIMs-per-game since his rookie year.

The Bad: Poti was brought in to (among other things) quarterback the top power play unit, but couldn't fill that role and lost the job to Mike Green fairly early on. As a result, his power play TOI dropped from 4:38 per game last season to 2:39 per outing this season and his point total dropped from 44 to 29. Poti's shooting percentage was the worst among all Caps with enough shots per game to qualify (and was 368th - or sixth worst - in the NHL in that stat), he had the fewest hits per minute of ice time of any of the team's blueliners (a nagging shoulder injury, no doubt, was at least partially to blame for both that and the lowest shots-per-game total since his rookie season), and his takeaway-to-giveaway ratio was better than only Alex Semin's, Jeff Schultz's and Milan Jurcina's among Caps' regulars. Poti also missed multiple games with groin (six games), upper- (three games) and lower-(two games) body injuries and waited 44 games before scoring his first goal of the season.

The Vote: Rate Poti on a scale of 1-10 (10 being the best) based on his performance relative to his potential for the season - if he had the best year you could have imagined him having, give him a 10; if he more or less played as you expected he would, give him a 5 or a 6; if he had the worst year you could have imagined him having, give him a 1.

The Questions: Which blueliner would you most like to see Poti paired with in 2008-09? What will it take for him to earn a 10 rating next year?

If you've missed any of the previous 2007-08 Rink Wraps, click here, get caught up, and vote - polls will stay open for a while.

* And by "every," we mean every one who played more than just a handful of games.

Thursday Roundup/Preds 5, Caps 2

[Boxscore - Recap - Postgame Coverage]

Death. Taxes. The Caps' special teams struggling. If it wasn't for Columbus's power play and Atlanta's, Carolina's and Philly's penalty kill the Caps would be dead last in the NHL in both special teams categories. In fact, the Caps have given up the most power play goals and scored the second-fewest in the League. The power play was again powerless last night, going 1-for10 (including a stomach-churning 5-on-3 before there was any score in the first, a shorthanded breakaway against that resulted in an unsuccessful penalty shot and a shorthanded goal against into the empty net), and the penalty kill was 3-for-6 (which hides the fact that the third Nashville goals was, for all intents and purposes, also a power play marker as it was scored three seconds after a penalty expired and the Caps were still pinned down in their defensive zone). To paraphrase Jack Nicholson's Joker from "Batman," this team needs an enema. Hire a special teams specialist. Do more drills. Eat more spinach. I have no idea what the answer is, but the Caps had better find it fast.

The WaPo's coverage of the game is here, the WTimes' here.

In other NHL news:

• Mario Lemieux is in the hospital with an irregular heartbeat. Get well soon, Mario - Mark Recchi needs some competition for the worst plus-minus in the League.
• Other relatively serious injuries abound, including Radek Bonk (torn groin - ouch), Eric Desjardins (shoulder), Martin Havlat (shoulder), Radek Dvorak (groin), Peter Bondra (groin) and Nick Boynton (knee). And don't worry - those links are to stories about the injuries, not whatever else your filthy minds can think of.
• Is The United Center that dark in person or just on TV? It looked like the Rangers and Blackhawks were skating on a sheet of dirt last night.
• On a tangentially hockey-related note, the Kris Beech Club has a new member. Joining Jaromir Jagr and Peter Bondra as home team guys whose jerseys I've owned who then got traded away is the first baseball player to be inducted - Brad Wilkerson. Got Wilk? The Nats don't any more.
  

Daily Awards

• Hart: Nikolai Khabibulin (OT W, 30 saves on 31 shots against - back on top for a day)
  
• Ross: Marek Zidlicky, Alex Tanguay, Jarome Iginla, Jere Lehtinen (3 points each)
• Norris: Marek Zidlicky (2G, A, +1)
  
• Vezina: Phillippe Sauve (W, 31 saves on 32 shots against; who knew?)
  
• Richard: Marek Zidlicky, Steve Sullivan, Jarome Iginla, Jere Lehtinen (2G each)
  
• Calder: Vitaly Kolesnik (W, 20 saves on 21 shots against in his NHL debut)
  
• Aiken: Roberto "You Might As Well Trade Me Now Because I've Mailed It In" Luongo (3 goals against on 11 shots in just 13:22)
  

Team Preview: Pittsburgh Penguins

Key additions: Sidney Crosby, C (D - 2005, 1/1); Sergei Gonchar, D (FA - BOS); Zigmund Palffy, RW (FA - LA); Mark Recchi, RW (FA - PHI); John LeClair, LW (FA - PHI); Jocelyn Thibault, G (T - CHI); Lyle Odelein, D (FA - FLA); Andre Roy, LW (FA - TB); Steve Poapst, D (FA - CHI); Dany Sabourin, G (FA - CGY); Ryan Whitney, D (D - 2002, 1/5)

Key losses: Aleksey Morozov, LW/RW (FA); Milan Kraft, C (FA - Europe); Michal Rozsival, D (FA - NYR); Tom Kostopoulos, RW (FA - LA); Jean-Sebastien Aubin, G (FA - TOR); Kris Beech, C (T - NSH); Ramzi Abid, LW (FA - ATL); Dan Focht, D (FA - FLA); Landon Wilson, RW (FA - Europe); Mike Eastwood, C (FA)

Key players unsigned: None

Forwards: Perhaps you've heard that the Pens won the draft lottery back in July and subsequently drafted Sidney Crosby, whose spot in the Hall of Fame is already being set aside, and with good reason. Crosby racked up 168 points in the QMJHL last year, an eye-popping total that has rarely been equalled. Well, Patrice Lefebvre did it twice. You remember the three NHL games Lefebvre played for the Caps back in 1998-99, don't you? Stephan Lebeau put up seasons of 188 and 167 points in the Q before going on to an NHL career that saw him top 58 points once. Patrick Edmond scored 139 and 167 points in the Q (eerily similar to Crosby's 135 and 168), but the Penguins' 1983 draft pick never played a game in the NHL. And some guy named Mario Lemieux bested 168 points in a QMJHL season twice as well (including 282 points in 70 games in 1983-84). Now, Crosby is "the real deal," we're told, and will undoubtedly be a productive NHLer. But to think that an 18-year-old kid who is barely six feet tall in his skates will step into a man's league and dominate immediately is a little absurd. Or is it? The idea of playing alongside Lemieux and his protégé was apparently an attractive lure in the offseason as the Pens were able to nab Ziggy Palffy, a world-class winger when healthy, but Palffy has only played 70 games in a season twice in the last six NHL seasons, so he certainly fits in the "high risk/high reward" category. Mark Recchi will likely play alongside Super Mario and Sid the Kid to begin the season. After a rebirth in Philly in 2003-04 that saw his point total rocket from 52 to 75 in one year, Recchi is hoping to rekindle some of the magic that brought a Cup to Pittsburgh the last time he skated alongside #66. John LeClair landed in Pittsburgh as well after being bought out by the Flyers, and should have 20-25 goals left in his stick for this season. The Pens will mix in some younger veterans with these ancients, as Ryan Malone, Lasse Pirjeta and Konstantin Koltsov will be counted on to supply depth up front. But, if as expected, Lemieux and Crosby play together and Malone plays his natural wing, the team is incredibly weak up the middle, with Pirjeta its #2 center and Shane Endicott #3. Expect to see Recchi and Malone play some at the pivot and even - dare we suggest it - for Lemieux and Crosby to skate separately from time to time. The Penguins will have a lights-out power play, and will score more than a few goals even strength as well. But overall depth up front is a major concern (the losses of Morozov and Kraft will hurt), especially with such a mature group.

Defensemen: The 2003-04 Penguins gave up more goals, 303, than any other team in the NHL. So the Pens did what any team would do: they spent $3.5 million on a defenseman who is afraid to hit people, gets caught out of position regularly, and makes untimely mistakes in his own zone. Sergei Gonchar had a miserable minus-20 rating in 2003-04 before being rescued from a woeful Capitals team whose defense wasn't much worse off than the corps he finds himself leading in Pittsburgh. But Gonchar is a point-producing machine who is a good passer and has a bomb from the point. Manning the other point on the top power play unit (if it's not a forward) will be Dick Tarnstrom, another power play specialist with no particular love of playing defense. Ric Jackman is another Pens blueliner with offensive upside and limited defensive ability. Paired with these three forwards, err, defensemen will be a combination of 15-year veteran Lyle Odelein, up-and-coming bruiser Brooks Orpik, Steve Poapst and Josef Melichar, none of whom will be counted on for any offense. A wild-card is Ryan Whitney, who is coming off a good year in the AHL and projects to be a #1 defenseman. Hopefully for the Pens, that projection is accurate and happens sooner, rather than later, because the other seven blueliners had a combined minus-143 rating in 2003-04.

Goaltenders: The best move the Pens have made since the end of the 2003-04 season was to acquire Jocelyn Thibault via Chicago. For only $1.5 million (less than a quarter of what the Blackhawks are paying his replacement), the Pens got a goalie who is only 30-years-old and had impressive numbers (2.37 goals against average, .915 save percentage) in 2002-03, his last full season. The perception is that Thibault is injury-prone, but prior to 2003-04 (in which he played in only 14 games), he had played at least 60 games in each season since 1997-98. More importantly, playing Thibault will protect future franchise backstop Marc-Andre Fleury from being shell-shocked, because the Pens could play Thibault and Fleury next to each other in goal and still give up three goals per game. Fleury is coming off a mediocre year in the AHL that saw him benched during Wilkes-Barre's playoff run, but expectations are still sky-high for the former #1 overall pick. The Pens would probably be wise to give Fleury another year in the AHL and bulk up the blueline before throwing him to the NHL wolves full-time, a task to which a veteran like Thibault is better suited.

Bottom line: The cash-strapped Penguins, poster team for the need for a salary cap 16 months ago, have already committed $9 million more to their 2005-06 payroll than they paid in 2003-04. That's a heck of a lot of #87 jerseys and ticket sales for a team that was dead last in attendance last NHL season. One wonders where all the money has suddenly come from. Then one reads that the team is projected to lose at least $7 million this year. The Pens are living the American dream - buying on credit and willing to declare bankruptcy when it comes time to pay. Of course they're gambling that the city, the state or Santa Claus will build them a new rink to replace the Igloo, quite possibly the worst building in the NHL. We wish them luck with that. Really. It would be a shame for them to have to be relocated to, say, Winnipeg. In the interim, the Pens have bought themselves a team that should make the playoffs on an "if you can't stop 'em, outscore 'em" theory, but will have trouble winning once there unless they get better down the middle and on defense. But they'll be nothing if not entertaining. And broke.