Showing posts with label Timonen K.. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Timonen K.. Show all posts

Sunday, November 11, 2007

Sunday Roundup/Lightning 5, Caps 2

[AP Recap - Game Summary - Super Stats - WashingtonCaps.com Postgame]

Following Saturday night's 5-2 drubbing at the hands of the visiting Lightning, the Caps have four days before returning to the ice Thursday night in Miami. If ever there were a time to pull the trigger on a coaching change, that time is now.

It's Rememberance Day and the Caps have the worst record in hockey overall and over their last ten games (tied with a handful of other floundering teams there). They are near the bottom of the League in goals for, are in the bottom-third in both special teams categories and have only two home wins in seven tries.

Without question, injuries to key players have played a part, and a coach can only play the cards his general manager has dealt him. But there are problems with this team that go beyond injuries, and those are the more troubling issues.

Even with the injuries, any team with a sniper like Alex Ovechkin and a playmaker like Michael Nylander needs to be more effective on the power play (and, frankly, with skill players like the Caps have, they shouldn't be in the bottom-third of the League in power play opportunities per game). There are teams with a lot less talent who have a much better power play than the Caps, and that is, at least in part, due to coaching.

The fact that Donald Brashear not only continues to get a sweater every night but also power-play time while Mike Green can't get a sniff of extra man action and Chris Bourque gets called up to provide a spark and barely sees the ice is, at least in part, due to coaching.

Most importantly, that a team can come out flat to start a game or a period at home against a division rival and fail to play with a sense of urgency when the game is still very much on the line is, at least in part, coaching.

It's easy to dismiss all of this as an emotional reaction to yet another disappointing loss, but these aren't the types of problems that were unique to last night's game. If you've seen a team that gives a full sixty-minute effort every night while playing for an astute tactician who makes all the right in-game adjustments and knows just what buttons to push to motivate his team, then you've been watching a different team than I have for the first seventeen games of this season.

I love what Glen Hanlon has given to and done for this organization - he guided an under-manned team of kids through incredibly tough times and did it with class and sensitivity. But at this point, I fear he's wandering the desert - these aren't supposed to still be those same incredibly tough times. Hanlon's message is either not the right one, or it's falling on deaf ears. Either way, the sum of the parts adds up to a need for a new voice to get this team back and headed in the right direction.

Elsewhere 'Round the Rinks:

Bruce Garrioch "reports" on the Ovechkin contract negotiations and says that "[i]t's believed Ovechkin's camp, which includes his mother Tatiana, is looking for a bigger deal [than Sidney Crosby's], in the $9-to-10 million range." The missing data, of course, is the length of the deal (it's as if your friend were to set you up on a blind date with a girl who weighs "around 150 pounds" but doesn't tell you whether she's 4'9" or 5'9"), but one quick question: what makes AO think he's worth 3-15% more than Sid?... Kevin Paul Dupont has a lengthy profile on Chris Bourque in today's Boston Globe - just in time for C-Bo's return to Hershey.

Daily Awards
  • Hart: Kimmo Timonen (G, 3A, +1)
  • Ross: Kimmo Timonen (4 points)
  • Norris: Kimmo Timonen (G, 3A, +1)
  • Vezina: Tim Thomas (W, 45 saves on 46 shots against)
  • Richard: Daniel Alfredsson, Shawn Horcoff, Anze Kopitar, Alexei Ponikarovksy, Marian Hossa, Rod Brind'Amour (2G each)
  • Calder: Andrew Cogliano (2A, +1)
  • Aiken: Marty Turco (L, 6 goals allowed on 34 shots against, including 5 on 14 in the third period)

Monday, June 18, 2007

Flyers Get Aggressive

The Flyers today traded a first-round pick (23rd overall) to Nashville for the rights to free-agents-to-be Scott Hartnell and Kimmo Timonen, then promptly signed the two to $10.5 million per year of contracts (trivial asides: Timonen is Nashville's all-time leading scorer, and his younger brother, Jussi, was drafted by the Flyers in '01 and is still in the organization).

The pick - which Nashville had previously sent to Philly in the Peter Forsberg deal back in February - gives the Preds a first round pick for two guys who were going to walk in two weeks anyway, so it's a bit of a win-win... until you consider that Nashville got two months of Forsberg and gave up a third-round pick, Scottie Upshall, Ryan Parent and the chance to re-sign Hartnell and Timonen. Ouch.

As for this deal itself, the Flyers have just shelled out $10.5 million in salary per year and a first round pick for a second-liner and a #2 blueliner. I'm glad we lost a year so we could have cost certainty, aren't you?

Wednesday, March 07, 2007

Offseason Shopping List: Defensemen

Having unanimously settled a new first-line center for the Caps, it's time to find a new "number one" defenseman. As was the case with centers, should the team choose to go the free agent route, there are certainly some options out there. Unlike centers, however, this year's free agent class of defensemen is relatively weak as compared to last year's.

First, a look at likely market conditions. In the offseason leading up to the 2006-07 season, teams were working with a $44 million salary cap. The top (unrestricted) free agent defensemen available were Nicklas Lidstrom, Zdeno Chara, Wade Redden, Ed Jovanovski, Rob Blake and Bryan McCabe. A quick look at the deals each got:

  • Lidstrom (36 years old): 2 years, $15.2 million ($7.6 million per year); 2005-06 stats:16-64-80
  • Chara (29): 5 years, $37.5 million ($7.5 million per year); 2005-06 stats: 16-27-43
  • Redden (29): 2 years, $13 million ($6.5 million per year); 2005-06 stats: 10-40-50
  • Jovanovski (30): 5 years, $32.5 million ($6.5 million per year); 2005-06 stats: 8-25-33
  • Blake (36): 2 years, $12 million ($6 million per year); 2005-06 stats: 14-37-51
  • McCabe (31): 5 years, $28.75 million ($5.75 million per year); 2005-06 stats: 19-49-68

Now, that's one hell of a class of blueliners. Sure, a couple of 'em are a bit long in the tooth and there are some injury concerns there, but any one of those guys (with one exception) could conceivably put together a Norris Trophy finalist season (and some have already, multiple times). Compare that to this year's top-five UFAs (in no particular order): Mathieu Schneider, Sheldon Souray, Kimmo Timonen, Brian Rafalski and Roman Hamrlik. See any Norris winners there? Any perennial finalists? Me neither.

So what will these guys cost? As we discussed with the centers, for 2007-08, the salary cap is expected to rise to between $46 and $47.5 million, but for the ease of this exercise, let's call it $48 million, a 9% increase over 2006-07. It would stand to reason that the top free agents, then, will cost around 9% more than they did last offseason (of course this assumes that some other factors, such as supply of and demand for these players holds constant, but again, pinpoint accuracy isn't important here). In other words, get ready to shell out around $6 million - bare-minimum - for the next 2-5 years. With all of that in mind, let's take a look at the candidates for the top-D spot (stats through 6 March 2007):

  • Roman Hamrlik
    • DOB: April 12, 1974
    • Nationality: Czech
    • 2006-07 salary: $3,500,000
    • Honors and Awards: 1996, 1999, 2003 NHL All-Star; 1998 Olympic Gold Medal
    • 2006-07 stats: 59 GP, 5-25-30
    • Career regular season stats: 983 GP, 129-368-497
    • Career playoff stats: 49 GP, 1-19-20
    • Games played over the last five NHL seasons prior to 2006-07: 351/410
    • Why he's a prime target for the Caps: Former number one overall pick (and we know how the team loves to collect former first rounders), Hamrlik is a good skater, shooter and passer who plays a physical (enough) game.
    • Why he's not: He's somewhat injury-prone and makes mistakes in the defensive zone at times. More than that, he's not a true #1 defenseman.
  • Brian Rafalski
    • DOB: September 28, 1973
    • Nationality: American
    • 2006-07 salary: $4,200,000
    • Honors and Awards: 2000, 2003 Stanley Cup; 2002 Olympic Silver Medal; 2002, 2004, 2007 NHL All-Star
    • 2006-07 stats: 67 GP, 7-36-43
    • Career regular season stats: 526 GP 43-256-299
    • Career playoff stats: 91 GP 15-37-52
    • Games played over the last four NHL seasons prior to 2006-07: 384/410
    • Why he's a prime target for the Caps: Rafalski is a winner and comes from a franchise that knows what winning is all about. His numbers may not be the most impressive, but they've been held down somewhat by playing in a defense-first system. He's a smart player, a great skater, and a capable offensive defenseman.
    • Why he's not: He's not big (5-10, 190). Seriously, that's just about the only "negative" I could write about Raffy. Maybe the fact that he'll be 34 by Opening Night 2007 is another, or the fact that at a $4.2 million 2006-07 salary, his 2007-08 salary will likely be one of the highest in the League.
  • Mathieu Schneider
    • DOB: June 12, 1969
    • Nationality: American
    • 2006-07 salary: $3,300,000
    • Honors and Awards: 1993 Stanley Cup; 1996, 2003 NHL All-Star
    • 2006-07 stats: 54 GP, 11-37-48
    • Career regular season stats: 1118 GP, 200-459-659
    • Career playoff stats: 92 GP, 7-39-46
    • Games played over the last five NHL seasons prior to 2006-07: 356/410
    • Why he's a prime target for the Caps: Schneider has a cannon from the blueline and passes extremely well - an ideal powerplay quarterback. Plus, he'd fill the on-ice Jew quota that has been deficient since Jeff Halpern left town.
    • Why he's not: He'll be 38 on Opening Night 2007, doesn't have great size and misses a handful of games every year with injuries.
  • Sheldon Souray
    • DOB: July 13, 1976
    • Nationality: Canadian
    • 2006-07 salary: $2,432,000
    • Honors and Awards: 2004, 2007 NHL All-Star
    • 2006-07 stats: 67 GP, 23-32-55
    • Career regular season stats: 492 GP, 63-114-177
    • Career playoff stats: 34 GP, 3-7-10
    • Games played over the last five NHL seasons prior to 2006-07: 224/410
    • Why he's a prime target for the Caps: Souray has a laser of a shot from the point and plays with an edge. Also, he's recently reconciled with his wife, and she's certainly a plus.
    • Why he's not: He will likely be the highest-paid free agent defenseman by far, but is a guy who has played 55% of his team's games over the past five years and who has well over 30% of his career production so far this season worth that much? Add in that he's not a terribly skilled passer, not the most skilled defensively and takes bad penalties and I think you have your answer.
  • Kimmo Timonen
    • DOB: March 18, 1975
    • Nationality: Finnish
    • 2006-07 salary: $2,280,000
    • Honors and Awards: 1998 Olympic Bronze Medal; 2006 Olympic Silver Medal; 2004, 2007 NHL All-Star
    • 2006-07 stats: 66 GP, 10-37-47
    • Career regular season stats: 559 GP, 76-217-293
    • Career playoff stats: 11 GP, 1-3-4
    • Games played over the last five NHL seasons prior to 2006-07: 392/410
    • Why he's a prime target for the Caps: Timonen is durable, fast and a good passer with a good shot.
    • Why he's not: He's smallish and perhaps a marginal number one guy.

From a quick glance at the above and my gut impressions of these five, I'd rank them Rafalski, Timonen, Souray, Schneider, Hamrlik in terms of how they'd fit what the Caps are doing. I'm sure I'll meet a lot of resistance ranking Souray so low, but his injury-riddled past and defensive/discipline lapses scare me - I'd gladly trade a few MPH on the slapper for a few more takeaways and plusses at the other end.

Finally, as we did with the centers, having attempted to pick an unrestricted free agent, let's explore the restricted free agent route, where the money saved could be spent on a center and/or a rightwing. Of course you would be giving up some picks, but with all of the prospects the Caps will have compiled by then and names like Ryan Whitney, Joni Pitkanen and Ryan Suter on the market, maybe it's an option worth exploring (if for no other reason than to screw Pittsburgh and/or Philly financially by making them match a high offer).