NHL Season Preview: Florida Panthers

Never in my life did I think I would end up writing nearly 1,200 words on the Florida Panthers - much less in a single post - but, well, I did. If you never thought you could read 1,200 words on the Florida Panthers, head over to FanHouse and try to prove yourself wrong (warning: I may be developing a mancrush on Jay Bouwmeester).

Steve Eminger: Stud Or Stiff?

Caps blueliner Steve Eminger would be the first to tell you that he stunk on ice last night against Tampa (actually, I might be the first to tell you that and Steinberg might be the first to tell you that I'll tell you that, but I digress).

Through 29 games this season, Emmy, now in his third full NHL season, has no goals, five assists and a minus-8 plus/minus rating, putting him on pace for a 14 assist/minus-19 campaign, this on the heels of a five-goal, 13-assist, minus-12 season last year. Per TSN.ca's scouting report, Eminger "[h]as the tools to quarterback the power play," "[d]isplays plenty of offensive acumen," and "can also be a solid defender," but it's simply not translating on the ice. By most accounts, he has taken a big step backwards this year, and the numbers would seem to back that up (though he has played better since being paired with John Erskine).

Speaking of numbers, let's take a look at some, shall we? Currently, he's third among the team's defensemen in time-on-ice-per-game (18:22) and shorthanded ice time per game and getting next-to-no power play ice time. Contrast that with last year, where he was second among blueliners in TOI/G (21:20), third in SH TOI/G and actually got power play minutes. Obviously minutes are earned and not handed out like candy on Halloween and the signing of Brian Pothier and emergence of Mike Green have cut into Emmy's minutes as well, but part of the decrease in production is no doubt the result of the two-plus minutes of power play time per game that he has lost.

So how should we measure Eminger's progress (or lack thereof)? How about comparing Eminger to other blueliners drafted after back in 2002 (excluding top-five picks Jay Bouwmeester and Joni Pitkanen who are quite simply another level of defenseman). Because of the Caps' rebuild, Eminger has played more games than any of them and has outscored them all too (though Chicago's Duncan Keith is about to pass him [sidenote: never trust a man with two first names]). But is there a blueliner taken after Eminger that you'd rather have right now? Any Trevor Daley fans out there? Perhaps Keith, and I've heard good things about Grebeshkov, Babchuk and Koltsov, but haven't been impressed. Point being that it's too early to tell on these kids.

What about defensemen drafted in a similar spot in the draft? Here's a list of all the defensemen taken between tenth and 15th overall in the five years leading up to the 2002 draft (in which Eminger was taken 12th): Brad Ference, Branislav Mezei, Jeff Jillson, Ron Hainsey, Dan Hamhuis and Igor Knyazev. Do you see anyone there who Eminger can't be better than in the next one-to-five years? Maybe Hamhuis?

Emmy's points-per-game might not be where you'd like, but the experience he has gained in the NHL at such an early age should prove invaluable down the road. And that's wherein the problem lies. How long will it be until we reach that point down the road where Eminger is the "top two defenseman" TSN think he can be?

It's no secret that defensemen take longer to develop than forwards, so let's take a look at some other very successful "top two" blueliners. Through 124 NHL games, Eminger has five goals, 24 assists and is minus-33. Dan Boyle? Through 129 games in the show, Boyle had 10 goals, 29 assists and was minus-17 for the Florida Panthers (of course Boyle was signed as an undrafted free agent, so expectations were lower). Sheldon Souray? Through 130 NHL games, Souray had four goals, 14 assists and was +23 for stingy Devil teams. Bryan McCabe? 162 games, 15 goals, 36 assists, -26 for the Isles. Philippe Boucher (who was taken 13th overall back in 1991)? 124 games, 15 goals, 32 assists, -26.

You get the point.

The bottom line is that at barely 23 years old and with less than two full NHL seasons' worth of experience it is far too early to give up on Eminger and call him a bust. What is most troubling, however, are the mental errors that are so apparent in his game. Whether it's not knowing when to step up to play a puck versus backing off to play the man or flipping a puck over the glass from the defensive zone, these mistakes have been killers and have been quite disappointing. But there have been plenty of extremely successful hockey players who have compensated for a lack of natural hockey sense with hard work and raw skill. Hopefully Eminger has enough of the former to develop the latter and make him a reliable top-four defenseman someday in the not-too-distant future.

Tuesday Roundup: Sinead O'Connor Retires

More old people clearing the way for youth to rule the new NHL: Mark Messier and Trent Klatt hang 'em up. I like to hate on Messier but will save it for another day as his undeniably impressive NHL career has (finally) come to an end. As for Klatt, his retirement is noteworthy if only because he's been the most vocal critic of how NHLPA Executive Director Ted Saskin was elected, an issue of major contention within the players' union these days....

All indications are that the Peter Bondra saga will finally come to an end today when he is announced as the newest Atlanta Thrasher [Atlanta Journal Constitution]....

Some key RFA signings from yesterday: Jay Bouwmeester in Florida, Michael Ryder in Montreal and Mark Parrish on the Island.

Update: Free agent and former Blue Scott Young has signed with St. Louis.

Monday's Rumors News & Notes

Mark Messier is going to retire today. If he cries, I'll throw up.

The Panthers have re-signed two key RFAs, Olli Jokinen and Mike Van Ryn, to one-year deals. The number of one-year deals being signed this year guarantees more lunacy next offseason. Yay! Jay Bouwmeester is the team's last significant remaining unsigned RFA.

The Caps open camp today (WaPo coverage here, strikingly similar coverage in the WTimes here).

Team Preview: Florida Panthers

Key additions: Jacques Martin, Head Coach; Mike Keenan, General Manager; Joe Nieuwendyk, C (FA - TOR); Jozef Stumpel, C (FA - LA); Gary Roberts, LW (FA - TOR); Chris Gratton, C/LW (FA - COL); Sean Hill, D (FA - CRL); Eric Cairns, D (FA - NYI); Martin Gelinas, LW (FA - CGY); Joel Kwiatkowski, D (FA - WSH); Jean-Marc Pelletier, G (FA - PHX); Jamie McLennan, G (FA - NYR); Dan Focht, D (FA - PIT)

Key losses: Mathieu Biron, D (FA - WSH); Matt Cullen, C (FA - CRL); Darcy Hordichuk, LW (T - NSH); Donald Audette, RW (FA); Lyle Odelein, D (FA - PIT); Andreas Lilja, D (FA - DET); Patrick DesRochers, G (FA - Europe); Paul Healey, RW (FA - COL); Kristian Kudroc, D (FA - Europe); Travis Scott, G (FA - Europe); Christian Berglund, RW/LW (FA - Europe)

Key players unsigned: Vaclav Nedorost, C/LW;

Forwards: The Panthers were the first team out of the gate when the free agency period started, signing 35 seasons and more than 900 goals worth of experience in Nieuwendyk and Roberts. Florida didn't stop there, however, as they added the injury-prone Stumpel, underacheiving Gratton and over-the-hill Gelinas to a group of forwards that had only one 15 goal scorer (Olli Jokinen) and only one player with more than 31 points (Jokinen, again) in 2003-04. Curiously, Jokinen still remains unsigned. Assuming that Jokinen does sign, Florida at least has depth down the middle, with Jokinen, Nieuwendyk, Stumpel, Gratton and youngsters Stephen Weiss and Nathan Horton. On the wings, however, the Panthers are below average, and as a result they will struggle mightily to score goals. It is also a relatively soft group of forwards on the whole, and not one that will instill much fear in opposing teams.

Defensemen: While the rest of the hockey world waits for Jay Bouwmeester to live up to his advanced billing (so far the third overall pick in 2002 is minus 44 in 143 career games), the Panthers have added blueliners Hill, Kwiatkowski and Cairns. Hill may help the powerplay some, but he will not get prime time with specialist Mike Van Ryn bombing shots from the point. Kwiatkowski is big and fast but doesn't use his size or his brain often enough. Cairns is a tough but slow blueliner who takes far too many bad penalties. This group may be better than 2003-04's, but still is a below average defense.

Goaltenders: Roberto Luongo is the franchise. He is one of the best goalies in the world and is as important to his team as any other player in hockey. So why did Keenan and the Panthers treat him the way they did this past offseason and take the superstar backstop to arbitration? It is mind-boggling. Sure, the Panthers "won," as Luongo will make closer to what the team thought he was worth than what he had thought of his own value. But in the long-run, the team will likely be the loser. Luongo is now harboring ill feelings towards the team and its management, and can walk away as a free agent after two seasons. For a team with a good deal of space under the cap, not making "their guy" happy in order to save a few bucks in the short-term will turn out to be a very short-sighted decision. On the ice, Luongo is entering his prime and is already putting up big numbers behind a fairly terrible team. There is no question that there is a Vezina in the near future for Luongo; the question is, will he win it with the Panthers? On the rare occasion that Luongo gets a night off, he'll be spelled by the unspectacular McLennan or the untalented Pelletier.

Bottom line: The 2003-04 Panthers were in the bottom eight in the NHL in goals for and in goals against. Something had to be done, and Mike Keenan was that something. The result, however, was a lot of turnover but the same old Panthers. There's not enough up front and the blueline is too thin which means that Florida will rely on Luongo to win games, and he won't be able to win enough of them to get this team to the playoffs. If the team somehow fails to sign its best forward and two best defensemen, things could get much worse much quicker. You could say - and it would be accurate - that the Panthers got Focht in the offseason.

Update (9/12): The Panthers have re-signed two key RFAs, Olli Jokinen and Mike Van Ryn, to one-year deals.