Leading The Way

A quick glance at the League leader boards in various individual stats reveals the prominent placement of a pair of Caps:


Of course, none of those rankings is as sweet this morning as this one:

Monday Open Thread

Wednesday Roundup/Caps 3, 'Canes 2 (SO)

[AP Recap - Game Summary - Super Stats]

The Hurricanes went through 65 minutes of hockey and a shootout without putting a single puck past Cristobal Huet with their sticks and yet somehow came away with a point that likely seals the deal on a Southeast Division title.

On the plus side, of course, the Caps banked another two points. But with both Philly and Boston winning and Carolina's lead at four points with five games to play, the reality is that the Caps gained next-to-nothing of value last night - they treaded water in the Conference and got one point closer in a Division that the 'Canes can wrap up with any combination of six points gained by them or not gained by the Caps with five games remaining for each team (in other words, if the Caps go 4-1 and Carolina goes 2-3, the 'Canes clinch).

As for that eighth spot, the Flyers have a magic number of seven with respect to the Caps with the same number of games left. Boston has a magic number of nine, but the B's have a game in hand on the Caps.

In summary (and if my math is correct), if the Caps finish 5-0, Carolina finish 3-2, Philly finishes 3-1-1 and Boston finishes 4-1-1, the Caps are out; if the Caps finish 4-1, Carolina finishes 2-3, Philly finishes 2-2-1 and Boston finishes 3-2-1, the Caps are out, and so on. Here's what each team has left:

• Washington: @ TB, @ FLA, CAR, TB, FLA
• Carolina: ATL, @ TB, @ WSH, TB, FLA
• Philadelphia: @ NJ, @ NYI, @ PIT, NJ, PIT
• Boston: TOR, OTT, @ BUF, @ NJ, @ OTT, BUF
  

Is there still hope? Sure. But the Caps can't do it on their own - they need some help even if they run the table.

Back to last night, some quick thoughts on the game:

• Huet has had a season's worth of fluky goals against in his month in D.C. And not to kick a man when he's down, but if I had a dime for every time I said to myself "Olie doesn't make that save," I'd have a buck or so.
  
• The team has been playing tight for a while now, with no one wanting to make a mistake. This is especially apparent in the conservative play of the defense, which hasn't scored a goal in March, but Boudreau's Flying Circus has been more or less reduced to an unreal first line, a very good power play, and any occasionally strong forecheck. They now have one non-empty net goal from someone other than a first-liner in their last five games (Matt Bradley's tally against Nashville).
  
• My guess is that Nicklas Backstrom won't win the Calder, in large part because people haven't watched the Caps enough to move past an "anyone could score on a line with Ovechkin" mentality, but the fact of the matter is he's as complete and mature a player as there is in this year's rookie class. His play on the Ovechkin goal - taking a bad drop pass from Viktor Kozlov and eventually putting it on a wide open AO's stick - was superb.
  
• Sergei Fedorov took 30 faceoffs (the most he's taken in a game since January 14, 2006 when he was a Blue Jacket and took 36 draws in a game against Florida), winning 16. On the night, the Caps won 59% of the faceoffs (it's nice to have Rod Brind'Amour and Matt Cullen out, eh?).
  
• Scott Walker ought to learn how to play the game under control.
  
• Sure, David A. Jensen played for D.C., but I think Joe B. was referring to Al Jensen when he noted that 'Canes forward Joe Jensen is no relation to the former Cap with the same last name.
• The Caps were out-hit 41 to 21. That's a bit of home-cookin', but there's no question Carolina carried the physical play.
  
• I hate Erik Cole, and by that I mean I respect him and wish he was on my team. I don't hate Eric Staal quite the same way.
  
• Thanks, Comcast - I didn't want to see the first shot of the shootout anyway.
• Cam Ward was fantastic.
• What are we going to do with Alex Semin? The guy's on a 40+ goal pace over his last 41 games (half a season) and has all the skill in the world, but has the hockey sense of a rabbit.
• Oh yeah, Alex Ovechkin scored Number 61, with no asterisk.
  

So two big points and it's off to Florida for the last two roadies of the season. Time's running out on the Caps, though, no matter how well they continue to play. They need help and they need it fast.

Elsewhere 'Round the Rinks:

Happy Birthday to my little brother Pooh.... The Leafs and Sabres bloggers have called it a season. If the Panthers had bloggers, they would too. That leaves only one team on the outside looking in in the East, and we all know who that is.... Joe Finley + Bucky + haiku = awesome.

Daily Awards

• Hart: Joe Thornton (3G, including two in the third period to send the game to OT, A)
  
• Ross: Joe Thornton (4 points)
  
• Norris: Anton Volchenkov (Game-winning goal, 2A, +3, 2 SOG, 2 Hits, 2 BkS)
  
• Vezina: Marc-Andre Fleury (31-save shutout win)
  
• Richard: Joe Thornton (3G)
  
• Calder: Nicklas Backstrom (2A, +1, 4 SOG, 67% faceoffs won)
  
• Aiken: Vesa Toskala (L, 5 goals allowed on 29 shots against)
  

Sunday Roundup

"Know what the difference between hitting .250 and .300 is? It's 25 hits. Twenty-five hits in 500 at bats is 50 points, okay? There's six months in a season, that's about 25 weeks. That means if you get just one extra flare a week - just one - a gorp... you get a groundball, you get a groundball with eyes... you get a dying quail, just one more dying quail a week... and you're in Yankee Stadium." - Crash Davis in Bull Durham

For some reason, that quote keeps banging around my head these days when I think about the difference between making and missing the playoffs. It's going to be close. How close? Who knows. But in this year of mediocrity parity, you can bet that it will be five points or fewer.

Know what the difference between, say, 88 and 93 points in the standings is? It's five losses in overtime rather than in regulation, okay? There's six months in a season. That means if you get less than one more game per month to overtime before losing - just one - an extra save in the last thirty seconds of regulation... you get a clear into the corner rather than into your own net with 28 seconds left... you get one puck past a mediocre goalie in sixty minutes... you hold on to a tied game for four more minutes in a game in which your goalie, 50-feet from the net, fans on the puck... you - rather than the officials - get to decide the outcome of a game... you get a call or a bounce, just one more call or a bounce a month... and you're in the playoffs.

Each of those five games referenced above was a Caps loss... in regulation. In total, the Caps have twelve one-goal, sixty minute losses (and ten one-goal regulation wins). The Caps may still make or miss the playoffs, but either way, it's going to be closer than even the standings might indicate.

Elsewhere 'Round the Rinks:

Damien Cox thinks Alex Ovechkin is a "talented loser" if the Caps miss the playoffs by a point, but the Hart winner if they're in. Tom Benjamin thinks Cox is a talented loser, minus the talent. I think "Damien Cox" sounds like a horror-porn actor.... Finally, one year ago today we briefly (and I mean briefly) recapped a Caps loss, watched an outstanding old school brawl and followed-up on the "fighting" post, and two years ago today we recapped yet another Caps loss and defended poor, defenseless Ovie.

Daily Awards

• Hart: Jarome Iginla (3G, including the game-winner, +2, 7 SOG, 3 Hits, 2 TkA, 0 GvA)
  
• Ross: Eight players tied with 3 points each
  
• Norris: Dion Phaneuf (G, 2A, +4, 8 SOG)
  
• Vezina: Dan Ellis (37 saves on 38 shots against in shootout win)
  
• Richard: Jarome Iginla (3G)
  
• Calder: Sam Gagner (2G, including the game-winner, +2, 8 SOG)
  
• Aiken: Jose Theodore (3 goals allowed on 8 shots against in just 14:29 of work)
  

Friday Roundup/Gamenight: Thrash @ Caps

[AP Preview - WashingtonCaps.com Preview]

I've got some good news and some bad news. Which do you want first? The bad? You don't get a preview of tonight's game from me (I know, you're crying). But as this is the 43rd time the Caps have played Atlanta this season, you shouldn't need one (though here's a little nugget for you - Atlanta is 2-9-3 in the second game of back-to-backs, and they had a barn-burner with Calgary last night).

The good news? I've got an awesome Friday time waster for you - the Japers' Rink Eastern Conference Playoff Predictor, which I have shamelessly ripped off from Battle of Alberta. Think the Caps still have a shot at the playoffs? Think they're done? Not sure? Predict the rest of the season's games that matter and you'll find the answers to all of your questions. Note: it's an Excel doc, so when you click on the thumbnail below you'll be prompted to download a file (don't worry, I've been checked out - no viruses here), then open it, follow the directions and you're on your way.


So are you throwing down a deposit on playoff tickets or drowning your sorrows? Let us know how your top eight pans out in the comments, and keep The Predictor on your desktop, update it daily, feed and water it, etc. - it's yours now.

Ovechkin Watch:

Next goal: 57 - Most goals scored in a season since the lockout (breaking Jonathan Cheechoo's mark set in 2005-06); Most goals scored in his first three seasons in the League by a European-born player (breaking Pavel Bure's mark of 154)

Career vs. Atlanta: 22 games, 17 goals
2007-08 vs. Atlanta: 6 games, 3 goals

Elsewhere 'Round the Rinks:

Olie Kolzig as the all-time face of the franchise - what do you think?... Ted Leonsis was on the Junks earlier in the week and the interview can be heard here (segments 6, 7 and 8 from 3/12; h/t to Rage) Bengt Gustafsson's son Anton may already be a top NHL prospect, but another Swedish Cap pivot's kid may not be far behind (h/t to Rich for the link).... Matt Pettinger misses the Caps more than they miss him.... Justin Mrazek (8th round, 2004) has been solid for Union College.... I haven't the foggiest idea who Nathan Schwartzbauer is, but the Caps are his favorite team, so he can't be all bad (and yes, that might be the most worthless link I've ever posted)....Memo to GMGM: sign Mike Green before he reads this article.... Finally, one year ago today we railed against a silly rule change and two years ago today we heard about the team's summer plans and noted a couple of fantastic Daniel Alfredsson quotes.

Daily Awards

• Hart: Ilya Kovalchuk (3G, A, +2, 5 SOG)
  
• Ross: Ilya Kovalchuk (4 points)
  
• Norris: Brent Burns (G, A, +2, 7 SOG)
  
• Vezina: Martin Gerber (28-save shutout win)
  
• Richard: Ilya Kovalchuk (3G)
  
• Calder: Erik Ersberg (W, 37 saves on 38 shots against)
  
• Aiken: Mathieu Garon (L, 3 goals allowed on 14 shots against in 24:55 of work)
  

Tuesday Roundup

With 28 days left in this season, the Caps are six points out of the eighth spot in the East.

With 28 days left in the 2006-07 season, the New York Islanders - the eventual eighth seed in the East - were in seventh place in the conference, and the top eight in the conference on that day (March 11) all made the playoffs.

Out West, the Calgary Flames - the eventual eighth seed in the conference - were in that eighth spot already and the top eight in the Western Conference on that day all made the playoffs.

With 28 days left in the 2005-06 season, the Tampa Basement Lightning - the eventual eighth seed in the East - were in sixth place in the conference, and seven of the top eight in the conference on that day (March 21) made the playoffs. The exception? The Thrashers, who fell from eight, allowing the Habs to make the post-season. And how far did Montreal come? From one point behind Atlanta with 28 days left.

In the West, eventual eighth seed Edmonton was in ninth place on March 21 and six of the top eight teams in the conference on that day made the playoffs, the only exceptions being Vancouver and Los Angeles who got replaced by San Jose and Edmonton. With 28 days left in the season, the Oilers had the same number of points as L.A. and the Sharks were only one point behind that pair and two behind the Canucks.

Point being, of the 32 playoff spots that have been claimed since the lockout, 29 were top-eight teams in their conference with four weeks left in the season, and, of the three others, no team was more than a single point out of a playoff spot at that point.

With 28 days left in this season, the Caps are seven points out of first in the Southeast Division.

With 28 days left in the 2006-07 season, four of the six eventual division winners were in first place. In the other two divisions, Atlanta, who on that day had the same number of points as Tampa but was in second by virtue of a tie-breaker, went on to win the Southeast and Detroit (with a game in hand) came from three points back of Nashville to win the Central.

With 28 days left in the 2005-06 season, five of the six eventual division winners were in first place. The exception was the Atlantic, where the Devils put together one of the great late season runs ever - 12-1-1 including an 11-0-0 streak to finish the season - to make up twelve points and pass both the Rangers and the Flyers and win the division by tie-breaker.

Point being, of the 12 division winners since the lockout, nine led their division with four weeks left and, of the other three, two had three or fewer points to make up. But there were those 2005-06 Devils...

Daily Awards

• Hart: Ryan Kesler (Game-tying goal with 2:41 left, game-winning OT goal, +1, 76% faceoffs won in 2-1 win)
  
• Ross: Jarome Iginla, Alex Tanguay, Dion Phaneuf (3 points each)
  
• Norris: Dion Phaneuf (3A, +3, 4 SOG)
  
• Vezina: Roberto Luongo (17 saves on 18 shots against in OT win)
  
• Richard: Ryan Kesler, Brad Boyes, Alex Tanguay (2G each)
  
• Calder: Brandon Dubinsky (A, 5 hits)
  
• Aiken: Manny Legace (3 goals allowed on 11 shots against in 19:58 of work)

Looking Up At First Place... And Second...

Photo: AP

Not good times.

Who Woulda Thunk It?

The Rising

Through 47 games last season, the Caps were at .500 (20-20-7).

Through 47 games this season, the Caps are at .500 (21-21-5).

Taken out of context, 47 points are just 47 points. But given how the two teams got to 47 points, there is obviously much more by which to be encouraged on January 21, 2008 than on January 21, 2007.

The first sixty days of the Bruce Boudreau regime have seen the Caps make up nine points over the same time period last year (a span during which the team was a not-horrible 12-14-1):

Probably most noteworthy in the above graphic is the lack of plateaus this time around - the Caps have yet to go consecutive games without gaining a point in the standings under Boudreau. Compare that to Glen Hanlon's '06-'07 Caps who had four different losing streaks during this stretch alone (and were starting a fifth).

And when you look at the trend over the course of this entire season, well, you know what you're seeing - the complete turnaround of an organization.

Shall We Officially Start The Bob Hartley Watch?

When I previewed the Thrashers over at FanHouse back in late August, I thought that head coach Bob Hartley was the man "on the hook" in Blueland, noting that "should Atlanta get off to a slow start, don't be surprised if someone else is behind the bench come Christmas." And while it's still very early and the Thrash are struggling through perhaps the most difficult month on their schedule (and without their best player, to boot), I'm standing by the prediction of a last-place finish for the Thrash that I made over at SeSo just over a week ago.

Consider that the Thrashers are now 0-4-0 and have scored just four goals while surrendering 17. They're the only team without a point in the standings, have scored the fewest goals per game in the League (thanks to a 1-for-19 start on the power play) and have the second-worst team GAA.

And while those numbers are likely grisly enough for Thrash fans, throw in last year's playoff embarrassment and Atlanta has lost their last eight games by a total combined score of 34-10, a stretch over which franchise goaltender Kari Lehtonen is 0-5-0 with a 4.82 GAA and a save percentage of .870 and Ilya Kovalchuk, Marian Hossa and Slava Kozlov have combined for four goals and three assists.

So Maybe it's Lehtonen. Maybe it's a dormant offense. Maybe it's personnel. But when you can't pin-point the problem on the ice, the gaze usually shifts upwards towards the bench. And when a team needs its sniper mixing it up in order to try to rally the troops, it may be because they're not getting what they need from their bench boss.

A new coach by Christmas? I think I'll take the under.

Let's Not Get Carried Away... Alright, Let's

Take a quick look at the Eastern Conference standings. Pretty, isn't it? You don't have to scroll down even one click on the mouse wheel to find the Caps.

Head over to FOXSports.com for their initial NHL Power Rankings. And that was before Monday's win over the Isles.

While reality might very well rear its ugly head this weekend in the Empire State - the Caps do, after all, have to pay a visit to the reigning State Champions - there is absolutely nothing wrong with enjoying these times, fleeting as they may potentially be (and there may be something wrong with conjuring up certain visuals along the way).

Think about it (or don't) - we've suffered through three straight last-place finishes for the first time since 1979-82.

We've suffered through blueliners named Kwiatkowski, Doig, Biron and Majeskey (to say nothing of Gruden, Grand-Pierre, Rohloff and Zinger), forwards named Fata, Cassels and Friesen, and five games of a goaltender nicknamed Yahtzee.

And we've suffered through two-plus years of an underachieving (to put it mildly) Jaromir Jagr that sent a perennial playoff-bound franchise (17 post-season appearances in the 19 seasons prior to #68's arrival) straight to the cellar and back to square one.

Yes, it's only three games and yes there's still a vast amount of room for improvement. But even if drinking it all in seems a little premature, don't hesitate to take a small sip every now and again - we certainly deserve it.