Wednesday Roundup/Gamenight: Flames @ Caps

[AP Preview - WashingtonCaps.com Preview]

The last time we saw the Flames, Alex Ovechkin was blowing up Dion Phaneuf, a pair of Z's scored a pair apiece, and Olie Kolzig was a wall, stopping 37 of 39 shots.

Seventeen months later the Z's are gone, but Olie Kolzig will be back in net tonight and you can bet that Alex Ovechkin will be hitting everything that moves (provided, of course, that he's actually somewhere in the neighborhood of 100% healthy) and taking aim at crossing another off the list of NHL team's he's scored against (which would leave only L.A., Minnesota and San Jose unscathed). His next goal will give him more than Glenn Anderson or Pat LaFontaine ever scored in a single season, and the air only gets more rarefied from there.

Calgary comes to town for the first of back-to-back games against the Southeast Division (they're in Atlanta - where it all began - on Thursday night), trying to complete a five-game sweep of the SED (they already have 2-1, 9-6 and 4-3 wins over Florida, Tampa and Carolina, respectively) and trying to hold on to first place in the Northwest Division (they have a one point lead over Minny).

Led by Hart hopeful Jarome Iginla (who on Monday became the team's all-time leading goal scorer), the Flames score more than the Flames you might remember (though not so much on the power play) and are a tough visitor, sporting an 18-13-1 road record. To top it all off, they're hot (7-1-2 in their last ten), despite scoring two or fewer goals in six of their last eight games.

The Caps playoff hopes, as we've documented over the past couple of days, are on life support. But we're told that there's still a heartbeat. Tonight, you'll see whether or not the team truly believes that.

Why The Flames Will Win:

In a moment of confusion, Nicklas Backstrom will think he's actually Flames' draft pick Mikael Backlund and thus shoot yet another puck into his own net. No? Okay... Calgary natives Mike Green and Jeff Schultz will be so enamored to be playing on the same ice as their hometown heroes that they will get stuck in a time warp, thinking they are playing pond hockey with their buddies (all of whom are wearing Flames red) leading to an even larger moment of confusion where upon finding themselves so close to the opposing team's net (read: Caps) that they will shoot the puck into the net instead of defending. Or maybe the Flames are just better. :P Alright, I don't want to die too horrible of a death by the hands of CapsChick so I will retreat quietly now." - Double D(ion)

Elsewhere 'Round the Rinks:

Happy 31st Birthday to Brent Johnson.... What the hell has gotten into Jeff Halpern? He now has four goals and five assists in eight games for the Bolts (and why do I feel like he's going to do the Caps in in one of those late season games?).... Despite no goals, one assist and a minus-four rating in his last five games, Mike Green = good.... One year ago today we ran down a checklist to see whether the Caps were actually an AHL team.

Daily Awards

• Hart: Dany Heatley (3G, including the game-winner, A, +2, 6 SOG)
  
• Ross: Dany Heatley (4 points)
  
• Norris: Pavel Kubina (2G, including the OT game-winner, +3, 6 SOG, 2 BkS)
  
• Vezina: Carey Price (38-save shutout win)
  
• Richard: Dany Heatley, Vincent Lecavalier (3G each)
  
• Calder: Carey Price (38-save shutout win)
• Aiken: Johan Hedberg (L, 5 goals allowed on 23 shots against in two periods of work)
  

Friday Roundup/Gamenight: 'Canes @ Caps

[AP Preview - WashingtonCaps.com Preview]

One point separates the Caps and 'Canes in the standings. Six-hundredths of a goal is the difference between the two teams' goals per game and seven-hundredths the difference between the two squads' goals against per game. The Caps' penalty kill is 2.8% more efficient than Carolina's, and their power play 0.8% less efficient. The two teams have split four head-to-head match ups on the season so far, with each team notching a home shutout and another home win, and both teams have been hit hard by injuries (Carolina is without Justin Williams, Matt Cullen, Chad LaRose, Dennis Seidneberg and David Tanabe who have accounted for 26 goals and 75 assists in 190 total games in 2007-08, while the Caps are, of course, without Chris Clark, Michael Nylander and Brian Pothier who have a combined for 21 goals and 39 assists in 96 man-games on the season).

The teams are evenly matched on paper, to be sure, but the Caps come in with momentum. Since Bruce Boudreau took over, Washington is 20-10-4. Carolina is 15-20-1 over a similar stretch, and 4-6-0 in their last ten (the Caps are 7-3-0). Washington's Alex Ovechkin has eight points (seven goals) in his last four outings, Nicklas Backstrom 12 in his last nine and Mike Green four in his last four while Carolina's Eric Staal is pointless in hist last four games, Erik Cole in his last six and Frantisek Kaberle in his last dozen.

Not all 'Canes are chilly, though (Rod Brind'Amour has 11 points in his last nine games and Cam Ward has a 1.98 GAA and .935 SV% in his last four), and not all Caps hot (Alex Semin's goal against Columbus is his only point in six games).

Bottom line: throw out all the stats, because they're gonna play this one on ice (or something close to it), not on paper, and we'll get our first chance to see how the first-place Washington Capitals defend that top spot. It oughta be a doozy.

Why The Hurricanes Will Win:

"The Canes will win if and only if AO comes down with the flu before the game. Otherwise, it's probably going to be ugly." - Carolina On Ice

"Because the Caps are riding high and they aren't used to that. They'll wake up tomorrow and realize something feels wrong and go back to losing again like they're supposed to. I will assist in this by going to DC and changing all the calendars back to November. And because Ovie's gotta run out of gas sometime, doesn't he? Yes?" - The Sliding Pokecheck [Ed. note: No, no he doesn't]

Elsewhere 'Round the Rinks:

So I can get a press pass in D.C. but Pat LaFontaine can't get one on The Island? Ha?... Happy Birthday Dino Ciccarelli... Because I like getting nostalgic, I'm going to start including some links back to what we posted here at The Rink on a given date one and two years ago. I find it interesting to see what we thought at the time and how that may or may not have changed since. So... A year ago today, we previewed the Caps and Kings, looked at why the Caps should trade Dainius Zubrus and discussed an article on one aspect of the culture of the game. Two years ago today we recapped a bleak loss to Florida and found our nominee for hit of the year.

Daily Awards

• Hart: Dany Heatley (2G, including the game-winner, A, 5 SOG)
  
• Ross: Evgeni Malkin, Ryan Whitney, Jason Spezza, Dany Heatley, Brad Stuart, Alex Frolov (3 points each)
  
• Norris: Ryan Whitney (2G, A, 4 SOG, 2 Hits, 3 BkS)
  
• Vezina: Mike Smith (25-save shutout win)
  
• Richard: Ryan Whitney, Dany Heatley, Darcy Tucker, Henrik Zetterberg, Mike Comrie (2G each)
  
• Calder: Kris Letang (Game-winning goal, +1, 2 BkS)
  
• Aiken: Henrik Lundqvist (L, 4 goals allowed on 19 shots against)
  

Tuesday Roundup/Panthers 4, Caps 3

[AP Recap - Game Summary - Super Stats - WashingtonCaps.com Postgame]

When the Caps surrendered the dreaded last-minute goal with 51 seconds left in the first to break a 1-1 tie, you had a feeling that the team would need a shot in the arm to get back in the game - be it a pep talk, a shake-up in the lines, the right coaching adjustment, a lucky bounce - even though they were only down a single goal.

Well, they didn't get it.

In fact, it was the Cats who got the lucky bounce and that was that. Another game, another loss, but this one featured something new - the debut of the "Fire Hanlon" chant. Frankly, the team might owe it to Hanlon for all he's done for the organization to let him go while he still has his dignity - he doesn't deserve to be remembered as he will be if things keep going the way they're going and they keep him around for much longer. Something's gotta give, and sooner rather than later. Some other notes on the game:

• Sure, the Caps put some lipstick on the pig, but that wasn't a one-goal loss.
• Is Glen Hanlon desperate? Playing Alex Semin for 18-plus minutes in his first game back after saying the Russian would be eased back into the lineup might suggest so.
• As for Semin, he was manhandled at times, but also sure does like to embellish things, doesn't he? Still, his presence in the lineup unquestionably changes things a bit.
  
• Nicklas Backstrom has to do a better job of tying up his man in front on the first Panther goal.
• Brooks Laich's shorty was only the Caps' second of the year (Matt Bradley had the other), and it tied Laich with Tomas Fleischmann for third on the team in goals with four. Again, good on Brooks - bad on most of his teammates.
  
• Speaking of Flash, he registered his first block shot of the season in the first period, leaving Joe Motzko and Chris Bourque (who have each played just three games) as the only Caps without a blocked shot.
  
• The Caps still haven't scored a 5-on-3 goal yet this season - they're 0-for-6 in those situations.
• The power play is now 3-for-33 in the last nine games.
  
• Speaking of missed opportunities, I was in the press box but passed up the chance to exact some revenge on Panther color analyst Denis Potvin for the knee-on-knee hit that essentially ended Bengt Gustafsson's career. Sorry, Caps fans.
• John Erskine looked, uh, rusty on the Cats' second goal. I thought he was supposed to clear opposing players from in front of Olie Kolzig, rather than vice-versa.
• Remember when Matt Pettinger and Boyd Gordon got the occasional assist at least? Eight games and counting for each without a point.
  
• Chris Clark's hooking penalty midway through a second period power play was unforgivable and unnecessary.
• Mike Green had a pair of bad penalties, but drew one on a nice end-to-end rush. Typical Mike Green game.
• At one point in the third period, the Caps had a 3-on-2 break that they quickly turned into absolutely nothing, which allowed the Panthers a 3-on-2 break the other way that resulted in a quality scoring chance. That's coaching.
  

Anyway, after the game I headed down to the morgue, err, locker room. Olie Kolzig was sitting in his stall, pads still on, looking very much like Rodin's Thinker (and moving just as much). It was literally five to ten minutes before any of the assembled throng of media dared to approach him. Not good times.

Next up: Atlanta who, in case you haven't noticed, has clawed all the way back to .500 after their 0-6-0 start.

Elsewhere 'Round the Rinks:

Word is that Bob Hartley has been offered a job coaching in Russia.... A small handful of Rangers games this season are being broadcast in Chinese. The wins will be just as satisfying, but after an hour, you'll be hungry again.... Just when you thought Todd Bertuzzi couldn't be a bigger scumbag, there's this.

Daily Awards

• Hart: Dany Heatley (Game-winning goal, 2A, +3)
  
• Ross: Jason Spezza, Dany Heatley (3 points each)
  
• Norris: Michal Rozsival (G)
  
• Vezina: Mike Smith (22-save shutout win)
  
• Richard: Olli Jokinen (2G)
  
• Calder: Mike Smith (22-save shutout win)
  
• Aiken: Johan Holmqvist (OTL, 4 goals allowed on 24 shots against, including two in the final six minutes of regulation)
  

How Alex Ovechkin Is Going To Get To 50 Goals And Win The Rocket Richard Trophy

Here's the deal - Alex Ovechkin currently has 41 goals on the season. Vincent Lecavalier (46) and Dany Heatley (42) are the only players ahead of Ovechkin. AO and Vinny each has 12 games left, Heater has 13 (oooh... unlucky already).

Let's look at it game- by-game for AO:

1. Boston - Alex has one goal in three games this season against the B's and three in seven for his career. He's always had trouble with Zdeno Chara, so maybe he doesn't score in this one.
2. Toronto - Two goals in three games this year, seven in seven for his career. GOAL #42.
3. Tampa - Four in six this year, nine in 14 for his career. GOAL #43.
4. Buffalo - Two in two, four in six. In Buffalo. No goal.
5. Carolina - Five in seven, eight in 15. No Ward, maybe no playoffs... GOAL #44.
6. Montreal - Zero in three, two in seven. Is he due or does Andrei Markov have his number? The Habs goaltending has been atrocious, so we'll go with... GOAL #45.
7. Pittsburgh - Zero in three, three in seven. Marquee matchup and... GOAL #46.
8. Florida - Four in six, seven in 14. Florida's tough at home. No goal.
9. Tampa - Four in six, nine in 14. When Alex sees the Bolts, fans see the red light. GOAL #47.
10. Florida - Four in six, seven in 14. Back at the VC it's a different story... and GOAL #48.
11. Atlanta - Seven in seven, 12 in 15. Pucks find their way in for AO against the Thrashers (ask Andy Sutton). GOAL #49.
12. Buffalo - Two in two, four in six. In overtime, Alex boards Daniel Briere (who, come to think of it, probably won't even dress for this one) from behind to take the puck and races in on goal, does a spin-o-rama, is tripped from behind but somehow manages to wedge his stick in his skate blade and swings his leg to lift the puck over a sprawling Ty Conklin for... GOAL #50.

It could happen. And before you give me "but most of those previous numbers came with Dainius Zubrus in the lineup," I'd note that AO has nine points in seven games since that trade, including six goals - both better than his pre-trade pace (Dainius who-brus?).

There you have it - how AO gets to 50. Now on to perhaps the more difficult task- explaining how AO ends up with more goals than Lecavalier and Heatley [must... resist... utterly tasteless "maybe Vinny will catch a ride home one night with Dany" joke].

To begin with, of those three, Ovechkin's Caps face the worst combined goals against average (~3.06) the rest of the way (the Sens face an approximately 3.02 GAA and the Bolts face 2.97), so Alex faces the crappier goalies.

Assuming Alex gets to 50, Heatley would need eight goals in 13 games to tie AO's 50, his current pace would have him score ~7.9 goals the rest of the way, so he falls just shy with 49.

As for Lecavalier, how is he not going to score four goals in 12 games, especially with two games left against the Caps? Oh, Donald...

Thursday Roundup/Gamenight: Habs @ Caps

[NHL.com Preview - WashingtonCaps.com Preview - Official Gameday Thread]

Didn't the Caps just play these guys? Yup. You know what that means, don't you? I get to be lazy and rehash my preview and recap from that game (and while I'm at it, I might as well rehash my Sheldon Souray Jersey Night idea). Killer.

So what's changed in a week (other than the Caps positioning in the Eastern Conference standings)? Not much. The Caps are a bit healthier, and perhaps The Donald will be a little better behaved (Aaron Downey sure hopes so), but everything keeps coming back to three main points: the need for better special teams, a 60-minute effort (especially a strong start), and better success in the faceoff circle. If the Caps fail in any of these three areas, that five-game losing streak will become six games real fast.

Google Search of the Day:

• I'm often amused at how people stumble upon The Rink. I get a ton of Lindsay Czarniak searches, some fairly bizarre searches (btw, nice hockey blogosphere roll call on that one), and some damn funny ones (NSFW... at all, though the second item in the search results is an absolute riot). I figured I'd start sharing them with y'all from time to time, and today's is certainly a gem.

Elsewhere 'Round the Rinks:

• Semen Varlamov and his Rooskie mates get to take on Canada for the gold at the World Juniors. Nick Bäckström and the Swedes will play the Yanks for bronze.
• Vogs has a nice piece on Eric Fehr and C-Bo up at Caps.com.
• Newsflash: the Caps' attendance bites but will be cured by winning more games.
  

Daily Awards

• Hart: Dany Heatley (3G, including game-winner, A, +2, 6 SOG, 3 takeaways, 2 giveaways, 1 hit, 1 blocked shot)
  
• Ross: Dany Heatley (4 points)
  
• Norris: Lubomir Visnovsky (G, A, +1, 2 SOG)
  
• Vezina: Roberto Luongo (W, 39 saves on 40 shots against through OT and four saves on five shots against in the shootout)
  
• Richard: Dany Heatley (3G)
  
• Calder: Loui Eriksson (G, +1, 2 SOG in 2-1 shootout loss)
  
• Aiken: Ryan Miller (L, 6 goals allowed on 36 shots against)