Tuesday Roundup

[Note: If you want to skip a bunch of self-indulgent fantasy hockey talk, there's a link dump below it.]

A couple of Saturdays ago I drafted a pair of fantasy hockey squads, including one - the JapersRink All-Bums - in the Mirtle Hockey Blogger Invitational league (check out Wyshynski's squad here, with links therein to a couple of other teams).

Having the eighth pick in the 18-team, 20-man roster draft (head-to-head scoring, with the following categories: G, A, +/-, PIM, PPG, PPA, GWG, SOG, W, GAA, SV, SV%, SHO), I knew I'd be missing out on the top forwards, but would have a chance to grab a good goalie. Considering that goalies will account for five of the thirteen scoring categories but only two or three of any given team's roster spots, drafting a netminder was definitely my strategy going in. And so the draft started:

1. Alexander Ovechkin
2. Evgeni Nabokov
3. Sidney Crosby
4. Evgeni Malkin
5. Martin Brodeur
6. Vincent Lecavalier
7. Dany Heatley
   

Despite guys like Dion Phaneuf, Jarome Iginla and everyone on the Red Wings still being on the board, I snagged Roberto Luongo, basically feeling that I'd be better off with Luongo and whomever I get in the second round than with one of those skaters and the best goalie left when my pick came up again.

The first round progressed without a single goalie being taken before Miikka Kiprusoff went with the last pick of the round, which got the wheels turning in my head - there were some other goalies I liked a lot, and if I took a second goalie with my second pick, it would force most of the teams picking after me to take at least one goalie, leaving a similar forward available with my third round pick as I would have gotten with my second. The picks continued with a predictable run on goalies, and as my pick came up I was salivating at the chance to steal Chris Osgood, but no dice - he went with the pick right before me, leaving me with a choice of Pascal Leclaire, Niklas Backstrom and a bunch of similar forwards. I took Leclaire.

Sure enough, what followed was another run on goalies, with six of the 14 picks before my next one being netminders. The best goalie available when it got back to me was Vesa Toskala, but of course I wasn't looking G. I was looking for the best skater available... which was Chris Pronger. So through three rounds, I was set in goal with probably the best goaltending in the League (if Leclaire can stay healthy), and I had a top five defenseman.

I spent the rest of the draft scrambling a bit for forwards and often taking the best available player (frequently a defenseman), and here's what I ended up with, by round:

1. Luongo (G) - see above
   
2. Leclaire (G) - see above
3. Pronger (D) - see above
4. Nathan Horton (C, RW) - dual eligibility is nice, and someone's gotta score for Florida, right?
   
5. Shane Doan (RW) - looking forward to seeing what he can do with a real center
   
6. Daymond Langkow (C) - I never like drafting dudes whose value is so dependent upon linemates, but Langkow was the right pick here
   
7. Kris Letang (D) - with Gonch and Whitney out, Letang will get all the ice he can handle
   
8. Markus Naslund (LW) - reborn on Broadway? I hope so
   
9. Sheldon Souray (D) - solid pick here, but always an injury risk
   
10. Ryan Malone (LW) - hopefully he gains C eligibility
    
11. Wojtek Wolski (LW) - another injury risk with pretty good offensive upside
    
12. Shea Weber (D) - love this guy
    
13. Bill Guerin (RW) - my first major "ugh" of the draft
    
14. Kyle Okposo (RW) - here's where I became the first person in fantasy hockey history to draft Islanders in back-to-back rounds
    
15. Tim Connolly (C) - yet another injury risk with offensive upside
    
16. Chris Clark (RW) - this pick may have been made with my heart rather than my head, but the Captain has looked good in the preseason
    
17. Tuomo Ruutu (LW) - hey, guess what? An injury risk!
    
18. Jared Boll (RW) - needed a goon, but didn't need one with a broken hand
    
19. Janne Pesonen (LW ) - already cut for Aaron Voros
    
20. Paul Ranger (D) - already cut for Stephen Valiquette... hey, I heard a rumor about a Lundqvist injury
    

I'm not thrilled with my offensive depth (or my team's durability), but I tend to go more for guys who help across the board (G, A, PIMs, +/-) than specialists, as these players are more easily replaceable should injuries come up and they still produce even when their offense goes cold. Obivously, I like my goaltending and have solid defense.

So what do you guys think? If there's any interest, I'll keep you guys posted and may even ask for some advice along the way.

Elsewhere 'Round the Rinks:

Alex Ovechkin and the Caps are the number one reason to watch the NHL this year.... Damien Cox chimes in on AO vs. Sid.... MediaPost chimes in on AO's latest endorsement deal.... Ken Campbell saw the Karl Alzner cut coming back on Thursday.... Ross McKeon predicts 80 goals for AO and a Finals appearance for the Caps (I guess working the refs pays off).... Allan Muir sees a second-place Southeast Division finish for the Caps.... Linda Cohn is the lone contrarian at ESPN picking against the Caps in the Southeast (though she's got Ovi winning the Hart somehow).... The Caps open the season eighth in CBS's Power Rankings, seventh at TSN.ca and Yahoo! and 10th at CNNSI.... Finally, Cristobal Huet's agent, Steve Bartlett, was on XM204 last week.

And With The First Overall Pick...

Fantasy hockey is an absolute passion - no, obsession - of mine (more on that later in the week), and I'm an avid consumer of any and all opinions on the topic (much in the way Sarah Palin is an avid consumer of news). Want to debate Shea Weber versus Brent Burns? Go. Have some thoughts on the value of game-winning goals as a scoring category? I'm listening.

Naturally, then, I was interested to see the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette's take on the top fantasy forward in the game. Here's how they ranked the top two:

1. Sidney Crosby - No, this isn't because I live in Pittsburgh, this is because he is the best player in the NHL, but just barely. This really depends on how your league is structured. If goals, power play goals and game winning goals mean a lot, then Ovechkin would have to be at the top. But in your basic point and head to head leagues, Crosby has a slight advantage. He consistently racks up over 100 points, usually around 80 assists, is always close to 40 goals and takes a tremendous amount of shots for a playmaker. Not to mention his plus/minus is better and isn't afraid of the rough stuff which contributes to PIM. Ovechkin's value is all in his goal scoring ability. Last year, he scored 65 goals, but the year before that he only scored 46 (yeah, I know, I say "only 46" like its low). Unless he gets injured, Crosby will always have 30+ goals and 80+ assists. Teams are really going to focus on Ovie this year after dominating the way he did last year and I seriously doubt he'll reach the 65 goal plateau again. Crosby, on the other hand, has Geno to help take away some of the defensive focus. If you have the first pick in your draft, use it on the superstar with the easier road to success.

2. Alexander Ovechkin - As I mentioned above, Ovechkin's value is in his goal scoring ability. No one has reached the 60 goal mark since Super Mario did it in 1996 (69 goals). In this era of "defense first" hockey, opposing teams are going to focus on Ovechkin like never before and he doesn't have a lot of help to take that pressure off him. The good news is that no one in the Southeast division, except for the Panthers (and even that's a little questionable), has any shred of defense. So I do expect Ovie to clean up when he plays his own division and will be the favorite to win the Rocket Richard Award (most goals).

Shocking, right?

Now, I disagree with the "best player in the NHL" tag, but it's certainly a valid opinion. Less valid? That that makes Sid the best fantasy forward in the game. Here are a couple of reasons why:

• Left wings are more valuable than centers due to the lack of depth at the position (obviously, this is only relavent in a league that differentiates among the three forward positions). This is the same reason you draft a stud shortstop before a stud outfielder in fantasy baseball - if you don't know your league rules and ignore positional scarcity, you're making a mistake.
• Under most fantasy scoring systems, goal scorers are going to be more valuable than playmakers, all things equal. Take ESPN's standard scoring system, for example, and two forwards - one with 60 goals and 40 assists, the other with 40 goals and 60 assists. For every one of those 60 goals, the first forward is getting a goal AND a shot on goal (and for some, a PPG), while the other guy is helping himself out in only one category for each of his 60 assists (both players may be getting a plus for their points as well, but that's a wash). Quite simply, every goal scored helps across the board more than every assist recorded.
• Crosby has missed 33 games in his three seasons in the League. Ovechkin has missed one.

The above, of course, doesn't even address the silliness of the claims that Crosby "consistently racks up over 100 points" (Ovi has as many 100-point seasons), "is always close to 40 goals" (his totals have been 39, 36 and 24), that he "takes a tremendous amount of shots for a playmaker" (he has never come within 100 shots of Ovi over the course of a season), that he has a better plus/minus (AO was +28 last season, Sid was +18 in admittedly far fewer games) or that "teams are really going to focus on Ovie this year" because "he doesn't have a lot of help to take that pressure off him" (psst... they really focused on him last year, and he has as good a supporting cast as any in the League). Oh, and I'm not buying this as an "era of 'defense first' hockey" either.

But the point is that in most Leagues, Ovechkin is the better pick than Crosby, and most folks outside of the 'Burgh know it.

ESPN Fantasy Hockey Rankings

ESPN's FHL 2009 Rankings and Projections are up and there are some pretty highly ranked Caps, including Alex Ovechkin (top forward, second overall) and Jose Theodore (#3 goalie, seventh overall).

Now is not the time to remind me that the Worldwide Leader knows jack squat about hockey, not when they're writing things like this:

"The Capitals are betting that the old Theodore is back, and we agree. The upside with Theodore behind this emerging Capitals team really is quite astronomical. He looked every bit the Hart Trophy winner he was in Montreal. The Capitals have all the pieces in place to be near the top of the standings and Theodore should be one of the biggest beneficiaries for fantasy purposes."

Sigh. They call it "fantasy" for a reason, don't they?

H/t Kukla's Korner

You Know You're Hockey-Obsessed When...

I certainly don't want to be insensitive to the Columbine-esque tragedy that unfolded yesterday in Montreal, but admit it - for some of you, your first thought upon hearing the news was "How does this impact Martin Brodeur's fantasy value?"

The Worst Fantasy Hockey Trade Ever

In the wake of the Joe Thornton trade (called everything from a trade that "Boston fans will regret... for a very long time" to the "worst trade ever"), I got to thinking about some of the other worst trades of all-time.

There was, of course, Jose Theodore and Martin Havlat for Olie Kolzig and Daymond Langkow back in February '03. And the February '02 trade that sent Theodore and Sergei Samsonov for Brent Johnson and Keith Tkachuk. What? You don't remember these deals? They were certainly big news in the Phantasy Hockey League, most accompanied by the requisite objections, over-reactions and desperate justifications by the owners involved. OK, so they're not that bad. And isn't it funny how the worst trades in a five year span of a fantasy hockey league aren't nearly as bad as some of the deals Mike Milbury has completed for the Islanders?

But that is neither here nor there. The point of this post is to elicit from the reader the worst trade you've ever made in your hockey pool. So let's hear 'em. I guess I'll go first:

12/07/01 - I traded Marty Turco and Jozef Stumpel for Radek Bonk. In a keeper league. Bonk finished that season with 70 points, Stumpel with 58, Turco with 15 wins, a 2.09 GAA and a .921 SV%. More importantly, however, Turco would rack up 68 wins over the next two seasons with sub-2.00 GAAs and a SV% around .920. Bonk was not kept (though he has come back to haunt me again this year). I feel shame.

How about your worst trade?