This Week In Corsi

With four games this past week (that now constitute just under a quarter of the season to date), there was plenty of opportunity for a shake-up in the Caps Corsi Rating rankings. Let's take a look at the week what was, but first, here's the year-to-date Corsi Rating for each skater on the team on a per game, per sixty minutes of even strength ice time rate (click to enlarge):

The first thing you'll notice in comparing this week's chart to last week's is that there are three new names on the negative side of the ledger, as we welcome Chris Clark (who had the team's worst CR in three of the four games this week), David Steckel (the team's worst in the fourth game) and Milan Jurcina into the red. That trio, at minus-32, minus-18 and minus-10, respectively, were the worst Caps in terms of raw Corsi Ratings for the week, and, considering that other than Juice those aren't big even-strength minutes guys, that's troubling (and how they ended up taking the dive they did on this chart). John Erskine (minus-five) and Jeff Schultz (minus-three) round out the bottom five for the week.

On the positive side of things, a red-hot top line led the way, as Alex Ovechkin (plus-36) and Nicklas Backstrom (plus-28) posted big numbers, with Tom Poti (plus-24), Viktor Kozlov (plus-23) and Mike Green (plus-19) right behind them (Alex Semin at plus-17 in just three games and Tyler Sloan at plus-16 also deserve mention).

What you can see here is that the Caps are becoming very much a one-line team at even strength - as good as Tomas Fleischmann has been in the offensive zone, his plus/minus and CR show a weakness at the other end of the ice, and the other lines are treading water at best. And yet the Caps now have the fourth-best five-on-five GF/GA ratio in the League, thanks to the two Alexes sitting in the top two spots in the League in even strength points. What that tells us is that the goaltending has been very good at five aside lately and has masked some of these deficiencies (sure enough, the Caps' even strength save percentage has climbed to 13th in the League after being 29th just two weeks ago).

So what's the answer? Besides the need for the entire team to commit to playing a bit more defense at even strength, perhaps splitting up the Alexes, with Kozlov rejoining the top line and a Flash-Michael Nylander-Semin second line would help in that the team would ostensibly have two lines capable of creating chances and possessing the puck in the offensive zone. After all, the best defense is a good offense, no?

One final note - there's been some criticism of the use of Corsi in evaluating player and team performance, to which I'd say that if you don't think that even strength production is important, think again. And again. The Caps are now 7-2-1 when outshooting opponents at even strength, 2-2-2 when outshot at even strength, and 1-0-0 when the shots are even. Even strength chances matter, as do the guys who are - and aren't - producing them.

This Week In Corsi

The Caps played three tight games this week and managed to snag five points along the way - we'll certainly take that. Let's take a look at the week what was in Corsi, but first, here's the year-to-date Corsi Rating for each skater on the team on a per game, per sixty minutes of even strength ice time rate (click to enlarge):

Still no change at the top or bottom from last week, with Sergei Fedorov and Boyd Gordon at the extremes for a fourth consecutive week, but thanks to a horrible showing against Ottawa on Tuesday, Donald Brashear has joined the trio of Caps previously on the wrong side of zero (it should be noted, however, that in the two subsequent games, the Brashear-Gordon-Matt Bradley fourth line has the same raw CR as the Alex Ovechkin-Nicklas Backstrom/Sergei Fedorov-Alex Semin line in this metric, and has done so in significantly less even strength ice time).

In terms of raw numbers, the Caps best player, by far, was Tom Poti at plus-17. In fact, since returning from injury, Poti has led the Caps in this stat in three of the four games and has been positive in each game - it goes without saying that a healthy Poti is absolutely critical to the Caps success right now. Shaone Morrisonn (plus-seven in limited action), Nicklas Backstrom and Tyler Sloan (plus-six apiece, and in just one game for Sloan), and Brooks Laich and Viktor Kozlov (plus-five apiece) round out the top five.

Chris Clark's was the worst skater on the team at minus-12 (in just two games) for the week, but we can blame his *ahem* injury, right? A quartet of players at minus-11 completes the bottom five and consists of Jeff Schultz, Milan Jurcina, John Erskine and Brashear. Also of note, Mike Green was a team-best plus-ten on Thursday and a team-worst minus-nine last night.

So what jumps out at you? Is Tyler Sloan ready for top-six minutes? For that matter, how would you rank the Caps' defensemen overall (and no, Fedorov doesn't count)?

This Week In Corsi

A light week on the schedule was even lighter for most of the Caps, who basically showed up for the first of the six periods on the slate for the seven days. So let's take a look at the week what was in Corsi, but first, here's the year-to-date Corsi Rating for each skater on the team on a per game, per sixty minutes of even strength ice time rate (click to enlarge):

There's still no change at the top or bottom from last week, with Sergei Fedorov and Boyd Gordon at the extremes.

In terms of raw numbers, the Michael Nylander, Tomas Fleischmann, Chris Clark line was by far the team's best line at even strength, finishing third, second and fourth, respectively, on the team in Corsi for the week (Mike Green led the way at plus-17, and Tom Poti's plus-seven in one game was good for fifth, tied with Jeff Schultz).

On the flip side, Gordon continues to struggle, and Fedorov had his game of the season (in terms of Corsi) last night. Donald Brashear and Matt Bradley were the only other negative players for the week.

Bottom line time - having only three players (two regulars) who are in the red, so to speak, in Corsi Rating is obviously a good thing, but the fact that the Caps have slipped to 18th in the League in five-on-five goals for/against leads to one of two conclusions - either the offense isn't converting on their chances, or the goaltending and defense aren't getting it done. Given that the Caps are ninth in the League in even strength goals per game and in the middle of the pack in five-on-five shooting percentage, you'd probably lean towards the latter conclusion. Sure enough, Caps goalies have the second-worst five-on-five save percentage and have allowed the seventh-most even strength goals per game in the League. The goaltending and the defense have simply got to get better. Much better.

This Week In Corsi

After a trio of one-goal games on a tough road trip in which the Caps were only able to salvage a pair of points in the standings, the regular season is now roughly 1/10th complete and things are starting to settle a bit statistically. Let's have a look at the week what was in Corsi. But first, here's the year-to-date Corsi Rating for each skater on the team on a per game, per sixty minutes of even strength ice time rate (click to enlarge):

There's no change at the top or bottom from last week, as Sergei Fedorov and Boyd Gordon once again provide the bookends. Chris Clark and Tomas Fleischmann moved to the right side of zero, as neither had a game in the red, and Eric Fehr slipped from the black to the red thanks to one bad game (a minus-5 in Phoenix) and his small number of games played.

The big movers this week include Tyler Sloan, who saw the first action of his NHL career and was a team-best plus-13 last night (which hardly makes up for that bad clear in the 'Yotes game), Flash, Clark and Michael Nylander on the plus side, and Donald Brashear, Fehr, Fedorov and Nicklas Backstrom on the negative side. Some of these swings, on both sides, of course, can be attributed to unsustainably high or low early season numbers levelling out a bit (see Fedorov).

In terms of raw numbers, Nylander lead the team this week (at plus-24), and was on of four Caps to have a positive rating in each of the three games (Fedorov, Mike Green and Clark were the others; Fleischmann was positive in two games and even in one). Fleischmann, Clark, Green and Sloan round out the top five for the week. On the other side of the ledger, Gordon was minus-ten on the week, and Brashear, Backstrom, Fehr and David Steckel were all in the minus-five to minus-seven range.

In case you're wondering, Alex Ovechkin was plus-one for the week (2, -2, 1), which, for a guy who was averaging plus-eight per game coming into the week, is obviously not getting it done. Hopefully, getting Viktor Kozlov back will help.

How do these numbers mesh with what you've been seeing on the ice at even strength? Is the Fleischmann-Nylander-Clark line (by far the team's best in terms of Corsi Rating last night) a combo that you see sticking going forward? Is Shaone Morrisonn the most over-rated player on the team? Could Tyler Sloan be an NHL defenseman (at least in as much as Milan Jurcina or John Erskine are)? [My answers, for what it's worth, would be Yes, Maybe and No.] Does anything else jump out at you?

This Week In Corsi

I didn't catch enough of last night's game to comment on it, so if you've got any observations you'd like to make, let 'em rip in the comments. Otherwise, we'll take a look at the week (and year-to-date, or YTD) in Corsi. First off, here's the YTD Corsi Rating for each skater on the team on a per game, per sixty minutes rate (click to enlarge):
The big movers from last week include Shaone Morrisonn (who dropped from around +25 to just over +1) and Sergei Fedorov (who jumped from +20 to around +38) and Michael Nylander and Milan Jurcina (leaps from approximately -10 to +10).

In terms of raw numbers, Fedorov lead the team this week (at +51) and had the best Corsi Rating of any skater in each of the team's three games (Alex Semin, Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom and Jurcina/Nylander round out the top five for the week). Morrisonn and Boyd Gordon (happy 25th birthday, by the way) were each -12 on the week, and Jeff Schultz (-4) was the only other Cap in the red for the period.

How do these numbers mesh with what you've been seeing on the ice at even strength? Do you buy John Erskine as being that productive or Flash as being that unproductive so far? Does anything else jump out at you?

This Week In Corsi

Perhaps this will become a regular feature. Perhaps not. And while it's only two games worth of data, here's a look at the Corsi Rating for each skater on the team on a per game, per sixty minutes rate:

Not good, Flash, not good (and not surprisingly, the five skaters on the wrong side of zero here are also the only Caps on the wrong side of zero in plus/minus).

A Brief Intro To The Corsi Number

For those of you unfamiliar with the Corsi Number (or Rating) as a hockey metric, there's a good discussion of it here and here, but, simply put, it measures the number of shots directed at net while a player was on the ice at even strength, excluding empty net situations.

For example, if Player A skates a shift in which he takes a shot that misses the net, his teammate then puts one on goal and another teammate blocks a shot at the other end before the end of Player A's shift, Player A will have a +1 Corsi Rating for that shift. To put it in context, Henrik Zetterberg had the League's best Corsi Rating a season ago (the Caps top line was also quite good), and a bunch of Thrashers were at the bottom. Basically it's another tool in the analytical arsenal to guage a player's even strength effectiveness. Got it? Good.

We'll be looking at the Corsi Number throughout the year, but here are the Corsi Ratings from last night's game. A few things jump out:

• The Mike Green-Shaone Morrisonn pairing's combined +17 is quite good (and it's worth noting that the two were the team's top two in even strength ice time).
  
• The Jeff Schultz-Milan Jurcina pairing's combined -10 is pretty bad (and it's worth noting that Jurcina got the least ES ice time of any blueliner - had he gotten more ice... ).
• The fourth line was a combined +14, the third (Michael Nylander) line was -3,the top line was +3, and the Alex Semin line was +12 - having the last line change paid off for Atlanta, as Ilya Kovalchuk matched up against the Nylander line and Schultz pairing more often than any others.
  
• The Caps dominated the game at even strength, with a combined +53 rating.

Granted, you don't need an advanced degree in statistics to know that with better penalty killing and a key save or three (and/or a softy or two from Kari Lehtonen) the Caps could have won last night. But the Corsi Ratings shed a little more light on who did what and are worth keeping an eye on, especially in judging the effectiveness of line combos and D-pairings.