Using The FCF To Predict The First Round

For those of you who have been reading The Rink for a while, you'll recall the Former Cap Factor (FCF), a prognosticating tool (something I'd never call my buddy Peerless, by the way) used to determine the results of playoff series before they happen.

In the two playoff years since its inception, the FCF has correctly predicted the eventual outcome of 24 of 30 playoff series, a remarkable 80% success rate (take that, TSN monkey - Maggie, not Darren Pang). A quick refresher on how it works:

1. If one team has a former Caps' General Manager at the helm, that team is most likely to lose a given series.
2. If neither (or both) team(s) has a former Caps' General Manager and one team has fewer former Capitals than its opponent, it is most likely going to win any given series.
3. If teams have the same number of former Capitals, the team with the fewer games played for the Capitals is most likely going to win any given series.
4. If neither team has a former Capital and one team has a former Capital head coach behind the bench, that team is most likely to lose any given series.
5. If both teams have former Capital head coaches, the team with the fewer games coached for the Capitals is most likely going to win any given series.
6. If neither team has a former Capital or former Capital head coach, the team with the fewer former Capital draft picks is most likely going to win any given series.
7. If the teams have the same number of former Capital draft picks, the team with the fewer Capitals ties among assistant coaches/advisors/etc. is most likely going to win any given series.

Got it? Good. Without further ado, then, the FCF predicts the first round of the NHL playoffs. We begin in the East:

• Montreal (1) vs. Boston (8) - The Habs have no former Caps. The B's have Glen Metropolit. Au revoir, Boston.
  
• Pittsburgh (2) vs. Ottawa (7) - The Pens' roster features Sergei Gonchar and Kris Beech, and while the Sens did dress Lawrence Nycholat for three games this year and Bryan Murray is both their coach and GM, the FCF says bet the upset.
  
• Washington (3) vs. Philadelphia (6) - I have no idea how this works when current Caps are involved, so we're not going to predict this one, though the Flyers' former-Caplessness makes me a little nervous.
• New Jersey (4) vs. New York Rangers (5) - Dainius Zubrus played 331 games for the Caps, Jaromir Jagr was only in uniform for 190 (and actually played in far fewer). To top it off, Devil blueliner Johnny Oduya was a Caps draft pick. The Rangers win the series.
  

And in the West:

• Detroit (1) vs. Nashville (8) - Is David Poile still the GM in Nashville? Yes? They're going down.
  
• San Jose (2) vs. Calgary (7) - Mike Grier played for the Caps, Ron Wilson coached 'em. Calgary is clean... and advancing.
  
• Minnesota (3) vs. Colorado (6) - Minny's Chris Simon played 320 games for the Caps, they have the brother of a Caps prospect, a Niklas Backstrom and a defenseman named Schultz who wears #55. Colorado's Andrew Brunette played 62 games for the Caps. Yet another upset predicted by the FCF.
  
• Anaheim (4) vs. Dallas (5) - Brian Sutherby's tenure in D.C. was greater (in games played, at least) than Nolan Baumgartner's. This is the real reason the Stars traded Jeff Halpern at the trade deadline. Dallas wins.
  

So the FCF predicts five upsets in seven series. Perhaps the current Caps actually being in the playoffs is making the FCF go haywire. Either that or we're in for a very interesting first round. Bottom line: bet now, thank the FCF later.

The FCF Revisited And A Finals Prediction

You may recall a couple of weeks ago we discussed the FCF - the Former Cap Factor, a proven scientific method of predetermining playoff series winners. To recap, the FCF holds that:

1. If one team has fewer former Capitals than its opponent, it is most likely going to win any given series.
2. If teams have the same number of former Capitals, the team with the fewer games played for the Capitals is most likely going to win any given series.
3. If neither team has a former Capital and one team has a former Capital head coach behind the bench, that team is most likely to lose any given series.
4. If both teams have former Capital head coaches, the team with the fewer games coached for the Capitals is most likely going to win any given series.
5. If neither team has a former Capital or former Capital head coach, the team with the fewer former Capital draft picks is most likely going to win any given series.

Well, the FCF worked like a charm in Round 3, as Buffalo's immunity to its forces finally ran out. For those of you keeping score at home, that brings the FCF up to 85% accuracy for this year's playoffs (11 for 13).

But now, it appears, the FCF is at an impasse. As far as I can tell, neither the Oilers nor the Candycanes has a former Cap, former Cap coach or former draft pick on the payroll. Ah, but wait! As we drill down deeper, we find that Hartford has two former Caps (Stephen Peat and Chris Hajt) listed as "In The System," while Edmonton's goaltending coach is none other than former Cap Peeeeeeeeeeeeeete Peeters.

Which is enough to tip the scales in the Finals? Neither Peat nor Hajt played a game with the big club this season and Peeters isn't now and has never been a head coach. I guess we'll see soon enough which sixth point needs to be added to the FCF, but I'm going to have to go with the 'Canes in this series. Peeters is a former Cap player currently associated with Edmonton's NHL team (unlike the AHL affiliations of Peat and Hajt) and therefore the FCF is stronger in him.

Hartford in 6.

Using The FCF To Predict The First Round

If you were a Rink Reader at this time last year, you'll recall the startling discovery I made of a proven scientific method of predetermining playoff series winners - the Former Cap Factor (FCF). The FCF predicted an astonishing 80% of playoff series correctly last year, including both Conference Finals and the Stanley Cup Finals.

In case you're new to the FCF (or if you need a refresher), the FCF holds that:

1. If one team has fewer former Capitals than its opponent, it is most likely going to win any given series.
2. If teams have the same number of former Capitals, the team with the fewer games played for the Capitals is most likely going to win any given series.
3. If neither team has a former Capital and one team has a former Capital head coach behind the bench, that team is most likely to lose any given series.
4. If both teams have former Capital head coaches, the team with the fewer games coached for the Capitals is most likely going to win any given series.
5. If neither team has a former Capital or former Capital head coach, the team with the fewer former Capital draft picks is most likely going to win any given series.
6. Addendum: If the teams have the same number of former Capital draft picks, the team with the fewer Capitals ties among assistant coaches/advisors/etc. is most likely going to win any given series.

With that in mind, let's look at the first round matchups and put the FCF to work:

• Buffalo (1) vs. N.Y. Islanders (8) - Having Dainius Zubrus and former Caps' draft pick Nathan Paetsch on the roster may hurt the Sabres down the road, but not in this first-round matchup against Brendan Witt, Richard Zednik and Chris Simon (in absentia). Buffalo wins.
• New Jersey (2) vs. Tampa Bay (7) - Both teams have a former Caps' draftee who never played for the big club, but the Bolts' Tim Taylor played for the Caps' AHL affiliate in Baltimore, which edges out the Devils' Johnny Oduya, who never signed with the Caps. Jersey wins.
• Atlanta (3) vs. N.Y. Rangers (6) - The Thrashers wisely traded former Cap Glen Metropolit at the trade deadline. The Rangers should have done the same thing with Jaromir Jagr and Michael Nylander. Atlanta wins.
• Ottawa (4) vs. Pittsburgh (5) - The few games Lawrence Nycholat played for the Caps (and, for that matter, for Ottawa this year) are nothing compared to the years of "defense" Sergei Gonchar and Joel Kwiatkowski logged in Washington. Ottawa wins.

• Detroit (1) vs. Calgary (8) - Detroit's Robert Lang and Calgary's Jeff Friesen... even if you don't count the six games that Brad Norton played for the Wings in October, Lang played more games for the Caps than Freezer, so this one has "upset" written all over it. Calgary wins.
• Anaheim (2) vs. Minnesota (7) - This is a tough one, as both teams wisely have no former Caps on the roster. Anaheim head coach Randy Carlyle was an assistant in D.C., but Minnesota goaltending consultant Bob Mason played for the Cap (and in The Easter Epic, no less). Anaheim wins.
• Vancouver (3) vs. Dallas (6) - Former Caps abound in this one, with Jeff Halpern and Nolan Baumgartner on Dallas's side and Trevor Linden and Jan Bulis on the Canucks' roster. Halpern's games played and captaincy in D.C., as well as another Caps' draft pick in Krys Barch on the Dallas roster tell me all I need to know. Vancouver wins.
• Nashville (4) vs. San Jose (5) - Having learned their lesson with Brendan Witt last year, Nashville comes into this series with no former Caps. The Sharks have a former Cap coach in Ron Wilson and, more importantly, player in Mike Grier. Nashville wins.

There you have it: the FCF's first-round predictions. Take 'em to Vegas (or Bodog.com) - they're money in the bank.

Using The FCF To Predict The Second Round

Today's night off (gasp!) provides us with a chance to both look back on the first round and forward to the second, specifically at our predictions.

It turns out that the version of the Former Cap Factor (FCF) that had been released last year and used for the first round this year was still in beta. A slight tweak, and it's good to go for Round 2. The tweak? Apparently being a former general manager of the Caps trumps all. Therefore, the FCF now works as follows:

1. If one team has a former Caps' General Manager at the helm, that team is most likely to lose a given series.
2. If neither (or both) team(s) has a former Caps' General Manager and one team has fewer former Capitals than its opponent, it is most likely going to win any given series.
3. If teams have the same number of former Capitals, the team with the fewer games played for the Capitals is most likely going to win any given series.
4. If neither team has a former Capital and one team has a former Capital head coach behind the bench, that team is most likely to lose any given series.
5. If both teams have former Capital head coaches, the team with the fewer games coached for the Capitals is most likely going to win any given series.
6. If neither team has a former Capital or former Capital head coach, the team with the fewer former Capital draft picks is most likely going to win any given series.
7. If the teams have the same number of former Capital draft picks, the team with the fewer Capitals ties among assistant coaches/advisors/etc. is most likely going to win any given series.

How'd the new and improved FCF do in the First Round? Six-for-eight. Not bad, though it drops the FCF to 78% (18-for-23) since the start of last year's playoffs (applied retroactively, btw, no 2006 results change). But, as a wise man once said, history is history right now, so let's apply the FCF to the Round 2 match-ups:

• Buffalo (1) vs. N.Y. Rangers (6) - Buffalo continues to live the charmed life (for now) as their Dainius Zubrus isn't enough to doom them against the Rangers' Jaromir Jagr and Michael Nylander. Buffalo wins.
• New Jersey (2) vs. Ottawa (4) - Ottawa's Lawrence Nycholat played a handful of games for the Caps (more than he's ever likely to get for the Sens), and having coach Bryan Murray behind the bench seals the deal, Devils blueliner and former Cap draft pick Johnny Oduya notwithstanding. Devils win.
  


• Detroit (1) vs. San Jose (5) - The Wings' Robert Lang played 145 games for the Caps, while the Sharks' Mike Grier played 150 (over the same two seasons too... freaky). Throw in San Jose bench boss Ron Wilson as icing on the cake and you've got all you need for a Wings win.
• Anaheim (2) vs. Vancouver (3) - The Canucks' Jan Bulis and Trevor Linden faceoff against... no former Caps. The Ducks advance.

Could a rematch of the 2003 Finals be on the way? All FCF signs point to yes, but as it's only 78% accurate, play it safe... bet the apartment, not the house.

The Former Cap Factor

I've finally figured it out - and it's been right there under my nose all this time. The key to Stanley Cup Playoff success isn't goaltending. It's not special teams or depth. It's something much simpler: in any given series, the team that is further removed from the Washington Capitals is most likely going to win the series. Let's call it the Former Cap Factor, or FCF, and set the parameters:

1. If one team has fewer former Capitals than its opponent, it is most likely going to win any given series.
2. If teams have the same number of former Capitals, the team with the fewer games played for the Capitals is most likely going to win any given series.
3. If neither team has a former Capital and one team has a former Capital head coach behind the bench, that team is most likely to lose any given series.
4. If both teams have former Capital head coaches, the team with the fewer games coached for the Capitals is most likely going to win any given series.
5. If neither team has a former Capital or former Capital head coach, the team with the fewer former Capital draft picks is most likely going to win any given series.

Basically the fewer connections a team has to the Caps and the weaker those connections are, the better. So how has the FCF played out in the playoffs so far? Let's take a look:

First Round:

• Ottawa (no former Caps on the roster) defeated Tampa (and former Cap draft pick/farmhand Tim Taylor)
• Carolina (no former Caps) defeated Montreal (Richard Zednik and Jan Bulis combined to play 438 games for the Caps, dooming the Habs from the outset)
• New Jersey (with one former Cap, Ken Klee) defeated the Rangers (who never stood a chance, what with two former Caps in Jaromir Jagr and Michael Nylander)
• Buffalo (with Mike Grier, a veteran of 150 games as a Cap) broke the mold and defeated Philly (who has no former Caps)
• Edmonton (no former Caps) upset Detroit (and former Caps Robert Lang and Jason Woolley)
• Colorado (playing without injured former Cap Steve Konowalchuk but with former Cap Andrew Brunette) somehow downed Dallas (no former Caps)
• Anaheim (and former Cap, albeit for only 33 games, Jeff Friesen) upset Calgary (and 320-game Cap veteran Chris Simon)
• San Jose (no former Caps) upset Nashville (and former Cap blueline mainstay Brendan Witt)
  

So in Round 1, six out of the eight series ended up the same way you would have predicted, had you applied the FCF. Interesting, but not convincing. Yet.

Second Round:

• Buffalo continued to go against the FCF in defeating Ottawa (though Ottawa is coached by former Caps bench-boss Bryan Murray, clearly lowering its immunity).
• Carolina worked Ken Klee and the Devils.
• Edmonton upset San Jose... coached by none other than Ron Wilson, a veteran of 410 games behind the Caps' bench.
• Anaheim (recall 33 former Cap games) swept Colorado (755 former Cap games).

Round 2, like Round 1, came in at a 75% confirmation rate.

Now there are two series left. The FCF holds that Edmonton will beat Anaheim and Carolina will down Buffalo (though Buffalo has shown itself to be immune from the FCF over the first two rounds). We shall see what happens, but this analysis sure is a heck of a lot easier than matching up teams fourth-line wingers and face-off specialists.

Using The FCF To Predict The Third Round

In the wake of the disappointment following the Caps first round exit at the hands of the hated Flyers, I forgot to recap how the FCF performed in the first round and apply it to the second round, so here's the brief recap: in the first round the FCF was 6 and 2 in the first round (counting picking the Caps to lose since they had former Cap Michael Nylander on the roster), including correctly predicting four upsets, and in the second round it was 3 and 1 (the wrong pick being Pittsburgh, and Philly being correct due to Habs assistant coach and former Cap Doug Jarvis). So the FCF is 9 and 3 so far, which is good but brings the prognosticating tool's all-time accuracy down to a still-ridiculous 73.8%.

Anyway, on to Round Three:

• Pittsburgh vs. Philadelphia - Sergei Gonchar in black and gold is enough to predict the upset, and Kris Beech is the crappy icing on the cake for the Pens against the Cap-less Flyers.
  
• Detroit vs. Dallas - you wouldn't think that Krys Barch would be the most important player in this series, but having the former Caps draft pick (who hasn't played a minute in the playoffs but played 48 regular season games for Stars) on the roster dooms the Stars.

So the FCF says Flyers/Wings. What do you say?

Recapping The FCF's Playoff Performance.

Don't say I - or more accurately the FCF - didn't tell you it would go down like this.

The Former Caps Factor finished the post-season on a glorious 7-1 run to end the playoffs with a record of 12 and 3 (80%) for the second consecutive season (the only two seasons the Factor has been in existence).

Long live the FCF, and here's hoping we get a chance to see how the Current Caps Factor performs next year.

Using The FCF To Predict The Stanley Cup Finals

After a perfect Conference Finals, the Former Cap Factor (FCF) is now a robust 23-for-29 (79%).

What does the FCF have to say about the Stanley Cup Finals?

The Senators haven't yet had to use former Cap Lawrence Nycholat, but he is on the roster nonetheless (and is assumed to be "a big part of the character in the dressing room"). And, of course, former Cap bench boss Bryan Murray is piloting the ship for Ottawa.

Anaheim, on the other hand, has former Cap assistant coach Randy Carlyle as its head coach, but no former Cap players, head coaches or GMs.

The answer, therefore, is obvious: the Cup stays in the States.

What do you think? Ducks or Senators?

Using The FCF To Predict The Third Round

Another round, another 3-for-4 for the Former Cap Factor (FCF), which is now 21-for-27 (77.8%) since its inception - not bad. Are any of you better than 75% in picking series since the beginning of last year's playoffs? I surely am not.

So what does the FCF predict for the Conference Finals?

• Buffalo (1) vs. Ottawa (4) - You had a feeling that the presence of Dainius Zubrus might finally catch up with the Slugs, and this time it's enough to end the Buffalo run, despite former Cap Lawrence Nycholat on Ottawa's roster and former Cap coach Bryan Murray behind their bench.
  
• Detroit (1) vs. Anaheim (2) - Robert Lang weighs down the Wings as the Cap-less (other than former Caps assistant coach Randy Carlyle as the head coach) Ducks advance.

What do you think? Will we see a Sens/Ducks finals that will send Gary Bettman crying to his mommy, or will one of his two remaining dream teams survive the Conference Finals?

By the way, if you're looking for interesting predictions that are a bit more grounded in traditional statistics such as [air quotes] goals against and [air quotes] goals for, be sure to check out the great work The Forechecker's been doing.