Tuesday, April 24, 2007

Using The FCF To Predict The Second Round

Today's night off (gasp!) provides us with a chance to both look back on the first round and forward to the second, specifically at our predictions.

It turns out that the version of the Former Cap Factor (FCF) that had been released last year and used for the first round this year was still in beta. A slight tweak, and it's good to go for Round 2. The tweak? Apparently being a former general manager of the Caps trumps all. Therefore, the FCF now works as follows:
  1. If one team has a former Caps' General Manager at the helm, that team is most likely to lose a given series.
  2. If neither (or both) team(s) has a former Caps' General Manager and one team has fewer former Capitals than its opponent, it is most likely going to win any given series.
  3. If teams have the same number of former Capitals, the team with the fewer games played for the Capitals is most likely going to win any given series.
  4. If neither team has a former Capital and one team has a former Capital head coach behind the bench, that team is most likely to lose any given series.
  5. If both teams have former Capital head coaches, the team with the fewer games coached for the Capitals is most likely going to win any given series.
  6. If neither team has a former Capital or former Capital head coach, the team with the fewer former Capital draft picks is most likely going to win any given series.
  7. If the teams have the same number of former Capital draft picks, the team with the fewer Capitals ties among assistant coaches/advisors/etc. is most likely going to win any given series.
How'd the new and improved FCF do in the First Round? Six-for-eight. Not bad, though it drops the FCF to 78% (18-for-23) since the start of last year's playoffs (applied retroactively, btw, no 2006 results change). But, as a wise man once said, history is history right now, so let's apply the FCF to the Round 2 match-ups:
  • Buffalo (1) vs. N.Y. Rangers (6) - Buffalo continues to live the charmed life (for now) as their Dainius Zubrus isn't enough to doom them against the Rangers' Jaromir Jagr and Michael Nylander. Buffalo wins.
  • New Jersey (2) vs. Ottawa (4) - Ottawa's Lawrence Nycholat played a handful of games for the Caps (more than he's ever likely to get for the Sens), and having coach Bryan Murray behind the bench seals the deal, Devils blueliner and former Cap draft pick Johnny Oduya notwithstanding. Devils win.

  • Detroit (1) vs. San Jose (5) - The Wings' Robert Lang played 145 games for the Caps, while the Sharks' Mike Grier played 150 (over the same two seasons too... freaky). Throw in San Jose bench boss Ron Wilson as icing on the cake and you've got all you need for a Wings win.
  • Anaheim (2) vs. Vancouver (3) - The Canucks' Jan Bulis and Trevor Linden faceoff against... no former Caps. The Ducks advance.
Could a rematch of the 2003 Finals be on the way? All FCF signs point to yes, but as it's only 78% accurate, play it safe... bet the apartment, not the house.

5 comments:

Novaron said...

6 of 8. Sorry you only got 5 of 8 right. Rangers won, Sharks won and Red Wings won.

Also you neglect the Mike Grier Factor. Teams with Mike Grier are 3 of 4 (and the only loss was because even he could not compensate for all top four Sabre defensemen being injured by the end of the series with the Hurricanes last year). I say go with the FCF except San Jose will take out the Sharks (Mike Grier Factor).

Novaron said...

I mean San Jose will take out the Red Wings

JP said...

This is a system that is still working the bugs out, Novaron. One of those bugs was the GM Factor. When adjusted, 6 of the 8 first round series were right (the Sharks mistakenly were picked to lose). Applying the new system, the FCF is 18-for-23 since the beginning of last year's playoffs.

I don't believe that the FCF accounts for individual players, though it certainly bears watching (it is worth noting that the FCF correctly predicted Carolina over Buffalo last year).

Stimpy said...

Don't you have to factor Randy Carlyle in as a former Assistant Coach in the Ducks game?

JP said...

Sure, but it's much lower on the factor list, so shouldn't impact the series much.