Two weeks ago, we took a look at the Caps' blueline in terms of certain stats, and on a "per shift" basis, in an effort to see who did what with the ice time they were given.
Today, we'll expand that type of evaluation to all skaters (actually, the 23 of them who played in the NHL last year and are most likely to play for the Caps this year - so no Nicklas Backstrom or Josef Boumedienne, but the young trio of Eric Fehr, Tomas Fleischmann and Jakub Klepis is included, as is John Erskine, who, like Flash and Klepis, has not yet signed for 2007-08). Also, Michael Nylander's, Viktor Kozlov's and Tom Poti's stats are obviously with their 2006-07 teams. Finally, it's worth noting that all of these stats merely tell you how effective the players are/were relative to their teammates - not the rest of the League (that's a project for another day) - so the utility is more in thinking about who deserves playing time than how good the team will be.
With those particulars out of the way, let's dive right in with minutes-per-point. There are no huge surprises at the top (or at the bottom), with Alex Ovechkin, Nylander, Alex Semin, Chris Clark and Kozlov lead the way, with blueliners (Steve Eminger, Mike Green, Milan Jurcina, Shaone Morrisonn and Jeff Schultz) bringing up the rear. The surprises are in between. For example, Matt Pettinger was 6th - if his shoulder is (and can stay) 100% healthy, that bodes incredibly well for the third line. Speaking of the third line, Boyd Gordon was 7th in minutes-per-point, despite getting only 3:50 of power play time all season - AO gets more than that on a 5-minute major powerplay. In fact, Gordon had fewer minutes in between points than Poti. Would you have guessed that? And of that trio of youngsters noted above, Klepis out-produced Flash and Fehr in this stat.
On the other hand, we all know that Brian Sutherby's production was disappointing last year, registering only 17 points after a 30-point 2005-06 campaign. But Brooks Laich produced just one more point in a handful more minutes, and both trailed Matt Bradley, Donald Brashear and Ben Clymer (and all five of those forwards scored better than number one defenseman Brian Pothier). Feeling crowded on that fourth line yet? And does it speak to how well Erskine played that he finished ahead of the likes of Eminger, Green and Jurcina, or is it an indictment of those three? A combination of the two, I'd say.
But enough about points. Lets get to hits. Here are your top five hitters-per-minute:
- Donald Brashear
- Alexander Ovechkin
- John Erskine
- Matt Bradley
- Milan Jurcina
- Tom Poti
- Boyd Gordon
- Alexander Semin
- Tomas Fleischmann
- Michael Nylander
Taking a look at penalty minutes-per-minute of ice time, you can see why Jakub Klepis needs to learn some discipline before he can be an NHL regular:
- Donald Brashear
- John Erskine
- Brian Sutherby
- Matt Bradley
- Jakub Klepis
How about the guys who kept their noses clean? Take a look at this list and, again, think about how well it bodes for the third line:
- Tomas Fleischmann
- Jeff Schultz
- Viktor Kozlov
- Matt Pettinger
- Boyd Gordon
If you haven't noticed the recurring theme of how underrated Boyd Gordon is, you will in a minute, because we're about to look at the guys who protect the puck. As I mentioned in the post on defensemen, puck-movers and playmakers are going to turn the puck over - Jaromir Jagr led the League in giveaways last year, for example. But your better-rounded players will also steal pucks, and a couple of guys rank high on both lists (Ovechkin and Martin St. Louis are two such skaters). But players need to know their roles, and that's where our next stat - takeaways-minus-giveaways-per-minute - comes in. Here are your top five Caps:
- Boyd Gordon
- Matt Bradley
- Brian Sutherby
- Viktor Kozlov
- Brooks Laich
- Jakub Klepis
- Brian Pothier
- Steve Eminger
- Mike Green
- Jeff Schultz
On the negative side, it's another strike against Jake Klepis and another reminder that Brian Pothier was a bit overmatched last year. Ben Clymer fared only slightly better than Klepis, which certainly doesn't help his cause, as he isn't the type of player that should have such a bad ratio (see where fellow checking-liners score, for example, though recall that Clymer did have a handful of games as a blueliner at the outset of last season).
So there you have it - a look at who did what with their ice time last year. It doesn't necessarily tell us too much that we didn't already know: Boyd Gordon is a stud, and, with Matt Pettinger and a rightwing to be determined, the Caps should have their best third line since the Steve Konowalchuk-Jeff Halpern-Mike Grier/Ulf Dahlen days; Jakub Klepis needs a lot of work; the defense needs to be better, and should be, with the addition of Tom Poti, the maturation of some of the younger kids and everyone in a role for which they're better-suited. Did anything else jump out at you? And how was that sandwich?
Want to check these stats out in a little more detail? Check out this Google Spreadsheet.
12 comments:
Gordon will win a Selke someday.
And Ted likes it.
*Sigh* Just keep adding to my inferiority complex, JP...I'll just continue posting my snarky comments about Sid and things stolen from YouTube, you handle the actual analysis and hockey-related talk. ;)
This is extraordinarily good.
I'd point out a few things, not criticisms, just things:
* I don't think Boyd Gordon is underrated in DC. At least among fans of this blog.
* I think that anyone named "Boyd Gordon" is going to fly under the radar bi-nationally, just because he's named "Boyd Gordon."
* It's OK with me if Nyls and Gordon aren't hitters. Gordon is positionally smart and I seem to recall Nyls being that way too. The Caps have a lot of fly-around-the-rink Suts-Bradley-Brashear types.
* Speaking of Suts, he gets even more invisible with every post.
Interest post, J.P. The one thing that jumped out at me watching the team last season was what appeared to be the absolute randomness of what was tallied as a hit, and what was not. I recall one shift in particular where Milan Jurcina clocked two opposing players against the boards in one shift, and wasn't credited with a hit in the game. Same game had Gordon hitting someone (!) with no credit. While the big hitters will certainly get their numbers, the inexactness of the science and the lack of consistency in what is scored as a 'hit' is a mystery I'm not sure I'll ever be able to figure.
Good stuff, man.
- Empty
I couldn't agree more as to the arbitrary nature of "hits" and that not everyone on the team has to play the body.
I just found 12 hits to be a rather mock-worthy number. Of course, Teemu Selanne only had 10 in 82 games and his season turned out just fine.
FYI, Tyler Arnason is the big winner here, with 82 games played and... 2 hits!
I think it's a bit unfair to Nylander on the matter of hits. Centers aren't generally well-represented in that category, and scoring centers even less so. For example, of the top 50 in hits last year in the NHL, 30 were defensemen, 14 were wingers, and six were centers (none of whom could be considered scoring centers). Nylander plays in space in his own zone and doesn't strike me as the sort of player who is going to play in traffic in his own end. I don't see that changing on this team, especially if he is matched with Ovechkin (who assumes a hitting role with perhaps more enthusiasm than is prudent for a player with his offensive responsibilities).
Gordon could probably stand to be a little more physical, but his game is predicated more on position and technical skill than a physical approach, which seems to me to explain a good portion of his low PIM total.
All in all though, this is a really nice and concise confirmation of what a lot of folks might have concluded from their eyes last year. For example, several players were overmatched, either for lack of discipline (Klepis) or by being given too much responsibility relative to their talent (Pothier).
Oh, and I can't access the spreadsheet. ;-)
Man do you have some time on your hands....what line of work are you in? Government?
Very interesting!
Ha. Actually, I'm a contractor for the Government. Truth be told, though, this post was all but published last night, so it didn't take more than hitting a button today.
Excellent stats, thanks. One thought as I was reading the points per minute stats for forwards, 1’st line forwards playing against top checking lines make their points per minute harder to attain relative to second and third line forwards. No? For that matter 3’rd line forwards are typically focused on defense not offense. It would be interesting to see our 1’st, 2’nd and 3’rd line offensive stats against other teams.
Really liked the post on blueliner stats also. Thanks again.
Thanks, and yeah, there are plenty of things that make this all imperfect. As well as the matchups, there's the quality of minutes (i.e. guys who get powerplay time vs. guys who don't, etc.).
On the matchups, I wonder if the disadvantage of being matched against the other teams' best checkers is somewhat negated by the ability to pick and choose line matchups, to an extent, in home games. Probably not fully, but to a degree.
By the way, the matchup issue makes Boyd Gordon look even more impressive - so few PIMs while checking other teams' #1 centers.
As for comparisons to other teams, if I get a chance (or an intern), I'll throw something together.
Gordon played well last year when Hanlon went to the trap...that positional game is his style. Gordon is not very good at forechecking because he does not hit (or check) much. It will be interesting to see what happens this year assuming Hanlon no longer uses the trap.
Hey anonymous:
I was anonymous before it was COOL to be anonymous!!! ;)
Just the mention of the "trap" was enough to make my face twitch. Hopefully, Hanlon has filed that in the "Systems Employed Only When the Ebola Virus Strikes" file.
Nice work as always, JP.
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