No, Schultz is reminiscent of a football guard or tackle in that when he's playing at his best, he doesn't stand out. It's when he's doing something wrong - a shockingly rare occurrence in his rookie season last year - that he gets noticed.
For a 20-year-old blueliner to come into the League, play decent minutes for its fifth-most pourous team and finish the season with a plus-five rating is borderline miraculous (Shaone Morrisonn's plus-three in much tougher minutes is even more impressive).
Still, Schultz is by no means a lock to be on the Caps' opening night roster, in part because he can be taxied between D.C. and Hershey without having to pass through waivers and in part because, well, he'll have to earn a spot. While some of Schultz's stats show how good he can be, others show that there's still a way to go in the youngster's development (which, of course, is to be expected).
For example, no regular defenseman on the team had fewer minor penalties per shift than Schultz (that's a good thing for Jeff), who averaged more than 121 shifts in between minors - surprising for a young guy, especially one of that size and whose skating and grace will never be confused with Scott Niedermayer. Here's how the blueliners stacked up in shifts-per-minor:
- Muir - 47
- Morrisonn - 52
- Erskine - 60
- Poti (with NYI) - 61
- Eminger - 62
- Jurcina - 68
- Green - 76
- Pothier - 94
- Schultz - 121
Another positive for Schultz is his shot-blocking ability (and we all know that the tallest guys are the best shot-blockers). Here are last year's shifts-per-blocked-shot leaders among the Caps' D-corps:
- Poti (with NYI) - 13
- Erskine - 14
- Pothier - 15
- Schultz - 16
- Jurcina - 17
- Morrisonn - 19
- Eminger - 21
- Muir - 26
- Green - 33
Now, to the not-so-impressive stats. Let's start with the obvious, Schultz's offense. No one expects big offensive numbers from Schultz - it's just not his game. But let's take a gander at the Caps' rearguards' shifts-per-point from last year:
- Poti (with NYI) - 51
- Pothier - 74
- Muir - 74
- Erskine - 103
- Eminger - 105
- Green - 114
- Jurcina - 125
- Morrisonn - 173
- Schultz - 324
- Poti (with NYI) - -.004
- Muir - -.006
- Morrisonn - -.010
- Erskine - -.014
- Jurcina - -.015
- Eminger - -.018
- Pothier - -.019
- Green - -.020
- Schultz - -.024
Finally, we'll look at shifts-per-hit. As we know, despite his size, Schultz isn't a big hitter. Here's the statistical proof:
- Erskine - 14
- Jurcina - 15
- Green - 16
- Morrisonn - 20
- Muir - 22
- Eminger - 23
- Pothier - 34
- Schultz - 36
- Poti - 37
So what do we take away from this? First of all, Tom Poti is likely going to be a great addition to this team. But regarding the roster spots, we know that Poti, Pothier, Morrisonn and Jurcina are mortal locks to make the team, and, if he signs, it looks like Erskine probably has a role as a sixth/seventh defenseman. Steve Eminger (if he's still here) probably has a spot in the final pairing, leaving one last spot for Schultz and Mike Green to fight over (of course, training camp can produce surprises, including Josef Boumedienne snagging that last spot).
The fact that both Schultz and Green can be sent down and called up without having to go through waivers may make this a moot question, but if it comes down to those two for that final roster spot, who would you rather see in the opening night lineup?
For more on the Caps' defense, head over to OFB for their excellent evaluation of each and every one of the top blueliners in the organization.
8 comments:
Nice work JP - wouldn't it be safe to say that we need more Morrisonn's and Schultz's coming up through the ranks with the defense first mentality? Guys like Green and hopefully Eminger should be compelled to put their offensive skills to work more often, because God knows we need more production from the back. Poti and Jerky should provide more in that regard.
God stuff,Japes. I know that Schultz was the focus of your piece, but what struck me from all the stats is that Poti is far and away the best all-around defensemen on the team. Aside from hits, he's first in virtually every other category. He may not qualify as a true #1 D on a lot of teams, but he certainly fits that bill for the Caps.
Actually, I meant to say good stuff. I like your blog but I don't worship you. :-)
b.orr4 - Poti's numbers struck me too. Granted, they were for a better team, but still.
Superb post. That Poti/penalties stat really stands out because not only did he play against top pairings, but he was over-used minutes-wise (by necessity) and he STILL kept the PIMs down.
I think Schultz sticks if only because Green/Eminger would be a no-go pairing.
other anon, alzner and finley definitely qualify as defense first players coming up through the system, and i am very excited for them to get here. look for pothier to have a much better offensive season too. as far as green or shultz goes, id love to have them both with the club and have erskine sit, but if youre going to play erskine you have to send down shultz cause those two as a pairing aint gonna work. all these defensemen are either going to work out great or cause chaos on the blue line due to a lack of continuity. I think its going to work out, which may mean in the form of a quality trade to clear up space and better define everyones role
poti morrisonn
pothier jurcina
shultz eminger
green
erskine
boummedienne
emmy is on a short leash, and assuming that green will evolve into a better player, i wouldnt mind seeing emmy sit or traded, which is a shame, but we got depth!(just a little unproven)
im more confident in the d at this point, especially top four or five, than i am with the bottom four or five forwards (brashear, clymer, bradley, laich, sutherby?)
with that said, the only two of them i have no desire in seeing in a caps jersey are bradley and clymer
sorry for rambling but needless to say im excited
The blueline is starting to shape up. The competition is going to be fierce in camp. Some of the young guys will have time to go down to Hershey and develop, perhaps.
I think Boumedienne will beat out Green and Schultz because of his experience.
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