Wednesday, August 31, 2005

Team Preview: Minnesota Wild

Key additions: Todd White, C/LW (T - OTT); Brian Rolston, C/LW (FA - BOS); Andrei Nazarov, RW/LW (FA - PHX); Scott Ferguson, D (FA - EDM); Kurtis Foster, D (FA - ANA); Joey Tetarenko, RW (FA - CRL); Daniel Tjarnqvist, D (FA -ATL); Erik Westrum, RW/C (T - PHX); Dustin Wood, D (T- PHX); Mikko Koivu, C (D - 2001, 1/6) ; Patrick O'Sullivan, C (D - 2003, 2/56);

Key losses: Andrew Brunette, LW/RW (FA - COL); Antti Laaksonen, LW/RW (FA - COL); Matt Johnson, LW (FA); Jason Wiemer, LW/C (FA - CGY); Richard Park, RW/LW (FA - VAN); Eric Chouinard, LW/RW (FA - PHI); Christoph Brandner, LW/RW (FA - Europe); Zbynek Michalek, D (T - PHX)

Key players unsigned: none

Forwards: In Marian Gaborik, the Wild have a superstar ready to breakout. While 2003-04 was a bit of a step back on Gaborik's ascension into the NHL's pantheon elite forwards, the bump in the road was due almost entirely to the lengthy holdout that saw him miss all of October. Further, there's only so much "breaking out" that a young player can do under head coach Jacques Lemaire. But Gaborik has learned how to play the game the right way and at 23-years-old is on the verge of reaching his full (and seemingly limitless) potential. In addition to Gaborik, 2002 first round pick (eighth overall) Pierre-Marc Bouchard and O'Sullivan are exciting young forwards who have racked up points at every level and will now be counted on to do the same in the NHL. The Wild signed free agents Rolston and White to help a team that is weak down the middle, but neither is a number one center, and it is an area in which Minnesota will struggle. Almost all of the rest of Minnesota's forwards are mediocre offensively and above average defensively - what else would you expect from a Lemaire-coached team? The Wild were 25th in goals scored and 28th in power play percentage in 2003-04, and those numbers aren't likely to improve dramatically in 2005-06.

Defensemen: The Wild return their top four defensemen in Filip Kuba, Willie Mitchell, Andrei Zyuzin and Nick Schultz. Kuba and Zyuzin are decent two-way options and Mitchell is a solid stay-at-home defenseman. Schultz has the highest upside of the group and is beginning to come into his own as an NHL blueliner. He should continue to improve in 2005-06. Also back is the versatile (and by versatile, we mean he can goon it up at defense or wing) Alex Henry. 2003 first round pick Brent Burns is in the process of converting from wing to defense, and will continue to do so this season. The newly-acquired Ferguson and Tjarnqvist will also see time on a blueline that is responsible and heady, if not overloaded with talent. The 2003-04 Wild gave up the fifth-fewest goals in the League and should again be in the top 10 in that category this year.

Goaltending: Dwayne Roloson is the classic late-blooming goalie. "Rolie the Goalie," who will be 36-years-old one week into the season, didn't even see action in an NHL game until he was 27 and didn't have his breakout year until he was 33. But he has officially broken out, as in the last two NHL seasons he has posted a 1.94 goals against average and a .930 save percentage in 98 games. Roloson kept busy during the lockout, playing in Finland, but, at his age, he will undoubtedly be a step slower in 2005-06. Roloson's backup is Lemaire's nephew, Manny Fernandez, who has at times shown signs of being capable of producing in the #1 role. No spring chicken himself, Fernandez will have to seize the opportunities when they are given to him this year if he is ever going to get #1 minutes in the NHL. Regardless of who the official starting goalie in Minnesota is, the backup will get more minutes than most backups, and Lemaire is likely to go with the hot hand until it cools.

Bottom line: A number of hockey fans love to hate on the trap. "The trap killed hockey," they'll bellow to anyone who will listen (and to many who won't). But for teams like the Wild, their strategic options were limited to a) playing the trap or b) losing every game 6-1 because they simply didn't have the talent to open up their game and skate with some of the stronger teams in the League. This, we were told, was due solely to the small market/big market divide that existed in the old NHL. The new NHL's competitive balance should eliminate the revenue differential and with it the talent differential and, theoretically, the dreaded trap (whose death should also be hastened by new rules that should open up the game significantly). But something happened on the way to opening night in Minnesota - the team didn't spend any money, despite making tons of it (Minnesota was sixth in total attendance in 2003-04). As a result, the Wild remain towards the bottom of the League in terms of overall talent and will likely have the same two strategic options again this year - play the trap or lose every game 6-1. Which one do you think Lemaire will employ? It doesn't really matter - either way Minnesota will be on the outside looking in again as the playoffs open in April.

Quotable

Thrashers center Bobby Holik on the new rule changes: "The most important thing is limiting the goalie equipment. The last ten years, I was looking at the goal and there was nothing to shoot at. It was like facing a wall."

Apparently the only thing that has stood between Holik and multiple 50-goal seasons has been the size of opposing goalies' pads. The one-inch reduction in the new rules will remedy that, we're sure.

Team Preview: Los Angeles Kings

Key additions: Jeremy Roenick, C (T - PHI); Pavol Demitra, C/RW (FA - STL); Valeri Bure, RW (FA - DAL); Craig Conroy, C (FA - CGY); Mathieu Garon, G (T - MTL); Tom Kostopoulos, RW (FA - PIT); Jason Labarbera, G (FA - NYR); Brad Fast, D (FA - CRL); Mike Weaver, D (FA - ATL); Denis Grebeshkov, D (D - 2002, 1/18)

Key losses: Zigmund Palffy, RW (FA - PIT); Jaroslav Modry, D (FA - ATL); Jason Allison, C (FA - TOR); Roman Cechmanek, G (FA - Europe); Jozef Stumpel, C (FA - FLA); Martin Straka, C/LW (FA - NYR); Anson Carter, RW (FA - VAN); Ian Laperriere, C (FA - COL); Scott Barney, C/RW (FA - ATL); Jason Holland, D (FA - Europe); Bryan Muir, D (T - WSH); Stephane Quintal, D (Retired); Adam Deadmarsh, LW/RW (FA)

Key player unsigned: Yanick Lehoux, C

Forwards: On paper (or a computer screen), it looks as if the Kings lost a lot up front since last season ended. Gone with Palffy, Allison, Stumpel, Straka, Carter and Deadmarsh are more than 1,100 career goals and 2,800 career points. But of those numbers, only 30 goals and 33 assists were potted for the 2003-04 Kings, a team devastated by injuries. Despite those injuries, the Kings finished in the middle of the pack (18th) in goals scored, as younger (e.g. Mike Cammalleri) and less-heralded (e.g. Derek Armstrong) players got opportunities that might not have otherwise been available to them. Couple a taste of NHL experience with the dominant years that Cammalleri and 2003 first round pick Dustin Brown put together in the AHL during the lockout and these two young Kings could be impact players in 2005-06. But the Kings will not rely solely on youth, as they bring in the loud-mouthed Roenick, the injury-prone Demitra (he'll fit right in), the under-rated Conroy and the shifty Bure to provide offense and sell tickets. Interestingly, none of those four played more than 68 games in 2003-04; one would have expected the Kings to look to more durable players after their recent experiences. The Kings also brought back 2003-04 leading scorer (and 40-year-old come February) Luc Robitaille. But perhaps the most important move of the Kings off-season was convincing budding star Alexander Frolov to leave Mother Russia and return to the NHL with a five-year contract. Add in checkers Trent Klatt and Eric Belanger and classic agitator/fan favorite Sean Avery and the Kings have a good balance of speed, skill and grit... if they can stay healthy.

Defensemen: The loss of Modry is a significant one for the Kings. The Czech rearguard led L.A. defensemen in games played, average ice time, points, plus/minus, penalty minutes and shots on goal. The Kings haven't replaced Modry and haven't really tried to either, which leaves a gaping hole at the #1 defenseman spot. Aaron Miller and Mattias Norstrom are both smart, physical defensemen with next to no offensive skills. Nathan Dempsey is more well-rounded, but smallish. The even-smaller Lubmoir Visnovsky is a power-play specialist with limited defensive ability. Look for 2001 first round pick Tim Gleason to get increased minutes and for Grebeshkov to get an opportunity as the team looks to better the blueline from within. Still, the Kings would be wise to add a rugged defenseman or two.

Goaltenders: Cechmanek's departure leaves the Kings with a starting goalie in Garon who has played in 43 NHL games entering 2005-06. The 27-year-old Chandler, Quebec native is coming off a year in which he lead Manchester to the second-best record in the AHL, posting impressive numbers along the way. Of course the question is can he carry that over to the NHL and sustain it over the course of an NHL season. If he can't, the Kings are in a world of trouble, as Labarbera, with only five NHL games to his credit, is penciled in as #2 on the depth chart.

Bottom line: The Kings' special teams were horrible in 2003-04, finishing 27th on the power-play and 28th on the penalty kill. The additions they've made should help them improve in both categories, but the keys to the 2005-06 Kings season will be how well the defense plays, how well Garon plays, and how healthy the team can stay. If it all comes together, the Kings could be a very good team. More likely, L.A. will be fighting for a playoff spot in March.

Tuesday, August 30, 2005

Team Preview: Florida Panthers

Key additions: Jacques Martin, Head Coach; Mike Keenan, General Manager; Joe Nieuwendyk, C (FA - TOR); Jozef Stumpel, C (FA - LA); Gary Roberts, LW (FA - TOR); Chris Gratton, C/LW (FA - COL); Sean Hill, D (FA - CRL); Eric Cairns, D (FA - NYI); Martin Gelinas, LW (FA - CGY); Joel Kwiatkowski, D (FA - WSH); Jean-Marc Pelletier, G (FA - PHX); Jamie McLennan, G (FA - NYR); Dan Focht, D (FA - PIT)

Key losses: Mathieu Biron, D (FA - WSH); Matt Cullen, C (FA - CRL); Darcy Hordichuk, LW (T - NSH); Donald Audette, RW (FA); Lyle Odelein, D (FA - PIT); Andreas Lilja, D (FA - DET); Patrick DesRochers, G (FA - Europe); Paul Healey, RW (FA - COL); Kristian Kudroc, D (FA - Europe); Travis Scott, G (FA - Europe); Christian Berglund, RW/LW (FA - Europe)

Key players unsigned: Vaclav Nedorost, C/LW;

Forwards: The Panthers were the first team out of the gate when the free agency period started, signing 35 seasons and more than 900 goals worth of experience in Nieuwendyk and Roberts. Florida didn't stop there, however, as they added the injury-prone Stumpel, underacheiving Gratton and over-the-hill Gelinas to a group of forwards that had only one 15 goal scorer (Olli Jokinen) and only one player with more than 31 points (Jokinen, again) in 2003-04. Curiously, Jokinen still remains unsigned. Assuming that Jokinen does sign, Florida at least has depth down the middle, with Jokinen, Nieuwendyk, Stumpel, Gratton and youngsters Stephen Weiss and Nathan Horton. On the wings, however, the Panthers are below average, and as a result they will struggle mightily to score goals. It is also a relatively soft group of forwards on the whole, and not one that will instill much fear in opposing teams.

Defensemen: While the rest of the hockey world waits for Jay Bouwmeester to live up to his advanced billing (so far the third overall pick in 2002 is minus 44 in 143 career games), the Panthers have added blueliners Hill, Kwiatkowski and Cairns. Hill may help the powerplay some, but he will not get prime time with specialist Mike Van Ryn bombing shots from the point. Kwiatkowski is big and fast but doesn't use his size or his brain often enough. Cairns is a tough but slow blueliner who takes far too many bad penalties. This group may be better than 2003-04's, but still is a below average defense.

Goaltenders: Roberto Luongo is the franchise. He is one of the best goalies in the world and is as important to his team as any other player in hockey. So why did Keenan and the Panthers treat him the way they did this past offseason and take the superstar backstop to arbitration? It is mind-boggling. Sure, the Panthers "won," as Luongo will make closer to what the team thought he was worth than what he had thought of his own value. But in the long-run, the team will likely be the loser. Luongo is now harboring ill feelings towards the team and its management, and can walk away as a free agent after two seasons. For a team with a good deal of space under the cap, not making "their guy" happy in order to save a few bucks in the short-term will turn out to be a very short-sighted decision. On the ice, Luongo is entering his prime and is already putting up big numbers behind a fairly terrible team. There is no question that there is a Vezina in the near future for Luongo; the question is, will he win it with the Panthers? On the rare occasion that Luongo gets a night off, he'll be spelled by the unspectacular McLennan or the untalented Pelletier.

Bottom line: The 2003-04 Panthers were in the bottom eight in the NHL in goals for and in goals against. Something had to be done, and Mike Keenan was that something. The result, however, was a lot of turnover but the same old Panthers. There's not enough up front and the blueline is too thin which means that Florida will rely on Luongo to win games, and he won't be able to win enough of them to get this team to the playoffs. If the team somehow fails to sign its best forward and two best defensemen, things could get much worse much quicker. You could say - and it would be accurate - that the Panthers got Focht in the offseason.

Update (9/12): The Panthers have re-signed two key RFAs, Olli Jokinen and Mike Van Ryn, to one-year deals.

Monday, August 29, 2005

Team Preview: Edmonton Oilers

Key additions: Chris Pronger, D (T - STL); Michael Peca, C (T - NYI); Rob Schremp, C (D - 2004, 1/25)

Key losses: Eric Brewer, D (T - STL); Mike York, C/RW/LW (T - NYI); Petr Nedved, C (FA - PHX); Brad Isbister, LW/RW (T - BOS); Scott Ferguson, D (FA - MIN); Jeff Woywitka, D (T - STL); Jamie Wright, LW (FA - Europe); Tyler Moss, G (FA - Europe); Adam Oates, C (Retired)

Key player unsigned: None

Forwards: Often in the NHL "balance" is a euphemism for "lack of talent." With that in mind, the 2003-04 Oilers were ninth in the NHL in goals scored and they did it with a balanced attack, as Ryan Smyth was the only Oiler to score more than 20 goals (23) and the only Oiler with more than 50 points (59). A similar balance will be back with the 2005-06 edition of the team. Youngsters Raffi Torres, Ales Hemsky and perhaps even Schremp will join a deep lot of mediocre forwards that includes Radek Dvorak, Shawn Horcoff and Ethan Moreau. Peca, brought in via trade from the Islanders, will add leadership, grit and defensive ability, but is not a #1 or even a #2 scoring option down the middle. The Oilers lack a true "go to" scorer and are weak at center, but they will ice three lines that can score relatively equally.

Defensemen: The trade that brought Pronger to Edmonton was a blockbuster move that, along with captain Jason Smith, gives the Oil as hard-hitting a duo of defenders as any team in hockey has. Steve Staios is another hard-hitter, Marc-Andre Bergeron a decent offensive defenseman, and Igor Ulanov, Cory Cross and Alexei Semenov will fill out the remainder of the minutes on the blueline on most nights. The Oilers could use more offense from the rearguards (only Pronger and Bergeron have any real passing or shooting ability), and a little more back-end depth, but with Pronger and Smith on the ice for nearly half of the game every night, Edmonton will have a tough, solid defense.

Goaltenders: Ty Conklin has been adequate so far for the Oilers, but wasn't spectacular in the AHL, does not have as much natural talent as most NHL starting goalies, and hasn't played more than 38 regular season games in a season in more than ten years. Conklin must prove that he can handle the workload of an NHL starting goalie, and he will be given the opportunity to do so. If (when?) Conklin falters, Jussi Markkanen will spell the American netminder. The 30-year-old Markkanen has been inconsistent during his limited NHL career, but can get hot for stretches at a time.

Bottom line: Edmonton missed the playoffs in 2003-04 by just two points, and likely will again be fighting to make the playoffs in 2005-06. The physical nature of the defensemen and the leadership of Pronger, Peca and Smith will keep the Oilers in every game and will help them win on many nights, but the goaltending is far too suspect to consider the Oilers a contender for anything more than a playoff spot. It would take a breakout year from a young forward or two and the emergence of one of the goalies to get Edmonton into the playoffs, and that is a tall order.

Wednesday, August 24, 2005

Team Preview: Detroit Red Wings

Key additions: Mike Babcock, Head Coach (ANA); Chris Osgood, G (FA - STL); Andy Delmore, D (FA - BOS); Kent McDonell, RW (FA - CBJ); Jiri Hudler, C (D - 2002, 2/58); Igor Grigorenko, RW (D - 2001, 2/62); Niklas Kronwall, D (D - 2000, 1/29)

Key losses: Derian Hatcher, D (FA - PHI); Brett Hull, RW (FA - PHX); Curtis Joseph, G (FA - PHX); Darren McCarty, RW (FA - CGY); Ray Whitney, LW (FA - CAR); Mathieu Dandenault, D (FA - MTL); Jason Woolley, D (FA); Peter Vandermeer, LW (FA - MTL)

Key players unsigned: Pavel Datsyuk, C; Henrik Zetterberg, LW

Forwards: Assuming they can re-sign Datsyuk and Zetterberg, the Red Wings will still be pumping in the goals by the boatload. The team scored the second-most goals in the League in 2003-04 (only Ottawa scored more), and, despite all the roster turnover, only lost one player who scored more than 15 goals last season (Hull). Sure, they're old. Steve Yzerman is 40. Brendan Shanahan will turn 37 in January, Robert Lang 35 in December. But they were old two years ago and the team won the President's Trophy. Kirk Maltby and Kris Draper will miss their grind line running mate McCarty, but someone will fill in and give the team one of the best checking lines in hockey. Talented young Euros Hudler and Grigorenko will help the offense. This is a team without many holes up front, though another scoring right wing would be icing on the cake.

Defensemen: Stop us if you've heard this somewhere before: the Red Wings are old. Three-time Norris Trophy winner Niklas Lidstrom is 35, Mathieu Schneider is 36 and three-time Norris Trophy winner Chris Chelios will be 44 in January. Yes, 44. Jiri Fischer leads the under-30 crowd on the blueline with a dominant physical presence. Delmore will help provide some offense, and newcomer Kronwall will continue to develop into a solid two-way defenseman.

Goaltenders: Manny Legace spelled Joseph in 2003-04 and put together a great season, going 23-10-5 with a 2.12 goals against average and a .920 save percentage. However he showed signs of either fatigue or pressure when he was relied upon for long stretches of time. Ideally, he would split time in net for Detroit. Enter (or, rather, re-enter) Chris Osgood. At about 1/9 of what Joseph made in 2003-04, Osgood will get a fair share of starts in his second tour of duty for the Wings. Look for new coach Babcock to go with the hot hand in goal.

Bottom line: The Red Wings can no longer simply open the checkbook in July and count on still playing hockey in May. The team will have to stay healthy (though maybe they can get Medicare reimbursements to pay for some injuries), and Legace needs to prove that he can handle being a #1 goalie, but most of the pieces are in place for another run at the President's Trophy.

Tuesday, August 23, 2005

Mega Deal: Hossa For Heatley

The Atlanta Thrashers have sent Dany Heatley to Ottawa for Marian Hossa and defenseman Greg de Vries. Earlier in the day Hossa had signed a 3-year, $18m deal. Heatley, a restricted free agent, signed a 3-year, $13.5m deal with Ottawa after the trade. At first blush, it looks as if Ottawa made out like bandits in this deal, shedding nearly $4m in net salary this season and acquiring a franchise winger in Heatley. Hossa is the better (and two years older) player right now, and the loss of de Vries hurts the Sens' blueline, but with the money saved, Ottawa GM John Muckler should be smiling to himself tonight.

In smaller moves, the Coyotes acquired winger Mike LeClerc from the Ducks and the Blackhawks signed defenseman Todd Simpson, late of Ottawa. And in another late, salary-dumping move, the Ducks have shipped Steve Rucchin to the Rangers for a bucket of pucks.

Finally, the Caps signed "the other" Petr Sykora today. A player with plenty of upside, Caps fans will undoubtedly believe it when they see it, or at least when it finally comes across the pond.

Team Preview: Dallas Stars

Key additions: Martin Skoula, D (FA - ANA); Stephane Robidas, D (FA - CHI); Johan Hedberg, G (FA - VAN); Garrett Burnett, LW (FA - ANA)

Key losses: Valeri Bure, RW (FA - LA); Pierre Turgeon, C/LW (COL); Teppo Numminen, D (FA - BUF); Chris Therien, D (FA - PHI); Rob DiMaio, RW (FA - TB); Scott Young, RW (FA); Ron Tugnutt, G (FA); Don Sweeney, D (Retired)

Key players unsigned: None

Forwards: Certain players should never change teams. Can you imagine Steve Yzerman in a Panthers jersey? Or Joe Sakic in Carolina? Or Ray Bourque donning an Avalanche sweater? OK, scratch that last one, but you get the point. Mike Modano is one of those players who is so identified with a franchise - and the franchise with him - that his re-signing with Dallas actually gave some sense of stability to an otherwise maddening frenzy of player movement this offseason. That said, Modano's best years seem to be behind him. He is not as bad as his horrendous 44-point effort from 2003-04, but his point-a-game days look to be fading in the rear view mirror. Most disturbing of all, the usually defensively-sound Modano was -21 on a team that gave up the second fewest goals in hockey. Modano needs to be better in 2005-06, and he will be. Not all was bad up front for the Stars in 2003-04, however. The line of Bill Guerin, Jason Arnott and Brendan Morrow saw each of the three post numbers at or near their respective career highs. All four of these forwards, in addition to Finns Jere Lehtinen, Niko Kapanen and Antti Miettinen, will be expected to produce the bulk of the offense in Big D this year. The Stars have shed some dead weight up front, which should help as well.

Defensemen: What Mike Modano was to the 2003-04 Stars forwards, Sergei Zubov was to its defense. Over the course of a full NHL season, Zubov hadn't scored fewer than the 42 points he posted last season since the 31 points he had as a rookie in only 49 games for the 1992-93 Rangers. Like Modano, Zubov turned 35 this summer and signed a huge new deal with the Stars. One would expect a rebound from Zubov this year. Trevor Daley is Zubov's heir apparent at the point on the powerplay, but needs work on his play in his own zone. Philippe Boucher, Skoula, John Klemm and John Erskine round out a slightly above-average defense. The Stars have a number of defensive prospects as well, lead by Shawn Belle, who could conceivably make the team this Fall.

Goaltenders: In his second full year as the Stars' #1 goalie, Marty Turco took a step backwards, seeing his goals against average rise by a quarter of a point and his save percentage drop by .019. Of course, even with these regressions, his numbers were still outstanding (second in wins, third in GAA, third in shutouts). Perhaps most impressive of all, Turco was second in the League in minutes played, trailing only Martin Brodeur and appearing in a whopping 73 games. Turco should post strong numbers again this year. Backing up Turco will be Hedberg, a goalie who can dominate for stretches (ask the 2000-01 Caps).

Bottom line: Turco carried the Stars to the playoffs last year, as much of the team had off years. Modano and Zubov, for example, combined for 86 points in 2003-04, just one less than Modano had by himself in 2002-03. Stars fans must hope that these two bounce back, that Guerin and Arnott continue to produce, and that some of the younger players step up. Otherwise it will be up to Turco to get Dallas to the playoffs. Again.

Monday, August 22, 2005

Selanne A Duck Again

Anaheim has signed free agent right wing and former Duck Teemu Selanne. The nine-time All-Star is the NHL's second-leading goal scorer since 1992-93 (Jaromir Jagr is first) and spent parts of six seasons in Anaheim from 1996-2001.

Team Preview: Columbus Blue Jackets

Key additions: Adam Foote, D (FA - COL); Bryan Berard, D (FA - CHI); Jan Hrdina, C/LW (FA - NJ); Geoff Sanderson, LW (W - VAN); Radoslav Suchy, D (T - PHX); Martin Prusek, G (FA - OTT); Ben Simon, C (FA - ATL); Jeff MacMillan, D (FA - NYR)

Key losses: Andrew Cassels, C (FA - WSH); Jaroslav Spacek, D (FA - CHI); Derrick Walser, D (T - CRL); Anders Eriksson, D (FA - CGY); Kent McDonell, RW (FA - DET); Scott Lachance, D (FA)

Key player still unsigned: Alexander Svitov, C

Forwards: Rick Nash is as gifted a goal scorer as there is in the NHL and Nikolai Zherdev is a highlight reel on skates. Other than these two, however, the Blue Jackets offense is quite bleak. In 2003-04, the Jax scored the second-fewest goals in the NHL with 177 (just ahead of Carolina's 172), of which Nash scored a league-leading 41 (tying him with Ilya Kovalchuk and Jarome Iginla). Sanderson, Hrdina, Todd Marchant, and David Vyborny, the team's leading scorer in 2003-04, will be counted on to share the offensive burden. Columbus has been spending high draft picks on forwards in the past few years, but yet another major injury to Dan Fritsche's surgically-repaired shoulder has his career somewhat in doubt, and first-round picks Alexandre Picard (2004, 1/8) and Gilbert Brule (2005, 1/6) are still at least a year or two away from the NHL. Opposing teams can concentrate all they want on stopping Nash - so far very little has worked. But he certainly needs some help up front, and right now Columbus does not have enough.

Defensemen: At $4.5 million per year for three years, the Blue Jackets overpaid for Foote, a defenseman who is 34, has battled injuries in the past, and has never put up more than 31 points in an NHL season. On the other hand, signing Berard for $2 million may turn out to be one of the better deals of this year's free agent class, as the talented rearguard had 47 points in just 58 games for Chicago in 2003-04. Of course Berard has also had injury troubles (as well as defensive troubles) throughout his career, though he played no fewer than 80 games in the two years immediately prior to 2003-04. All in all, landing one of the best defensive defensemen in the League and a top notch power play quarterback for $6.5 million isn't too bad. 2005-06 would be a good year for Rostislav Klesla to finally put it all together. Luke Richardson can still hit, and Suchy is a decent depth defenseman. The Jax could use another defenseman (who couldn't?), but if they stay healthy, this crew should do an adequate job.

Goaltenders: Marc Denis continued his emergence as a true franchise goaltender in 2003-04, the fourth consecutive year in which he lowered his goals against average and raised his save percentage. With an improved defensive corps in front of him (including some addition-by-subtraction as a result of the departures of Spacek, Lachance and Eriksson), he may be able to make that five straight years. Should Denis stumble, Prusek will push him and will fill-in when necessary. Former first round pick Pascal Leclaire (2000, 1/8) is also waiting in the wings for a chance at NHL ice time.

Bottom line: When your top two centers are Todd Marchant and Jan Hrdina, you're not a playoff team. It really is that simple. An improved defense alone isn't going to get it done. Luckily for the Blue Jackets, they have some room left under the cap. Will they spend any more of it? It depends whether or not they want to contend for a playoff spot.

Sunday, August 21, 2005

Team Preview: Colorado Avalanche

Key additions: Pierre Turgeon, C/LW (FA - DAL); Patrice Brisebois, D (FA - MTL); Curtis Leschyshyn, D (FA - OTT); Andrew Brunette, LW/RW (FA - MIN); Brad May, LW (FA - VAN); Ian Laperriere, RW/C (FA - LA); Antti Laaksonen, LW/RW (FA - MIN); Marek Svatos, RW (D - 2001, 7/227); Paul Healey, RW (FA - FLA)

Key losses: Peter Forsberg, C (FA - PHI); Adam Foote, D (FA - CBJ); Paul Kariya, LW (FA - NSH); Chris Gratton, C/LW (FA - FLA); Phillipe Sauve, G (FA - CGY); Teemu Selanne, RW (FA - ANA); Vincent Damphousse, C (Retired); Darby Hendrickson, C (FA); Peter Worrell, LW (FA); Andrei Nikolishin, C (FA)

Key players unsigned: None

Forwards: Butting right up against the salary cap, what you see is what you're going to get with the 2005-06 edition of the Avalanche, barring any trades. It's impossible to replace arguably the best player in the world (Forsberg), a nine-time All-Star (Selanne) and a seven-time All-Star (Kariya), so GM Pierre Lacroix didn't try to (of course, those three combined to score only 45 goals in 2003-04, just four more than Ilya Kovalchuk scored). Instead, he has built a team that will fit defense-first Head Coach Joel Quenneville's mentality by adding defensive forwards Laperriere and Laaksonen. Turgeon and Brunette will provide some scoring help, but the trio of Joe Sakic, Alex Tanguay and Milan Hejduk (whose numbers will likely suffer without Forsberg feeding him) will carry the water for the Avalanche offense. With Turgeon, Brunette, Sakic and Tanguay, the Avs have plenty of set-up men, but only one real finisher in Hejduk. Someone else will have to step up, perhaps the diminutive Svatos. The head scratcher of the offseason has to be the signing of May, discussed at some length here, but I guess the Avs had to do something with the money they saved by not having to pay a salary to Steve Moore this year.

Defensemen: Rob Blake's body has taken such a beating over his 15-year career that one has to wonder how much he has left. Our bet? Not much. Couple that with the loss of Foote, and the top pairing in Colorado will be a far cry from what it has been for the past handful of years. The good news is that John-Michael Liles is really coming into his own as an offensive defenseman, and if Blake can impart a little of his defensive knowledge upon Liles, the latter could be exceptional at both ends of the ice, despite his lack of size. Breeze-by, err, Brisebois will fit in well in Colorado where he will not be expected to be equal parts Bobby Orr and Ray Lewis. The rest of the defense - Ossi Vaananen, Karlis Skrastins, Bob Boughner and Lecshyshyn is solid but unspectacular.

Goaltenders: David Aebischer had some fairly enormous skates to fill when he stepped into the starting role in Colorado in 2003-04, and he did not disappoint, going 32-19-9 with a 2.09 goals against average and a .924 save percentage. In fact, "Abby" posted a better GAA and a better SV% in 2003-04 than his predecessor - what was his name again? - did in 2002-03. The 27-year-old Swiss goaltender had a couple of ugly games at the outset of the second round of the 2003-04 playoffs in San Jose, but there's no reason to doubt that he will post strong numbers again in 2005-06. Aebischer will be backed up by Peter Budaj, who has yet to play an NHL game, but with three years of AHL experience under his belt, is ready for backup duty in the show.

Bottom line: The Avs had the League's third-best powerplay in 2003-04, and should be one of the League's best again this year. Colorado will look to play opponents even at 5-on-5 and beat them on special teams, and should be fairly successful with that strategy. There's not much help on the way at any position, as years of blockbuster deadline deals (Blake, Ray Bourque, Theo Fleury, etc.) have depleted the organization of prospects to the point that they are ranked dead last in the NHL in that area. There is cap relief in site, though, as 36-year-olds Sakic and Blake, who account for more than $13 million in salary (or 1/3 of the salary cap), are nearing the end of their respective careers. The Avs will build around Aebischer, Hejduk, Tanguay and Liles and will be a playoff team for the forseeable future, but 2005-06 might be the team's last best chance to make a run at the Stanley Cup for quite some time.

Saturday, August 20, 2005

Team Preview: Chicago Blackhawks

Key additions: Nikolai Khabibulin, G (FA - TB); Adrian Aucoin, D (FA - NYI); Martin Lapointe, C/RW (FA - CHI); Jim Dowd, C (FA - MTL); Mikael Holmqvist, C (T - ANA); Jaroslav Spacek, D (FA - CBJ); Matthew Barnaby, LW/RW (FA - COL) ; Curtis Brown, C (FA - SJ); Todd Simpson, D (FA - OTT); Cam Barker, D (D - 2004, 1/3); Brent Seabrook, D (D - 2003, 1-14); Anton Babchuk, D (D - 2002, 1/21)

Key losses: Bryan Berard, D (FA - CBJ); Jocelyn Thibault, G (T - PIT); Steve Poapst, D, (FA - PIT); Igor Korolev, C/W (FA - Europe); Travis Moen, LW (T- ANA); Scott Nichol, C/RW (FA - NSH); Jason Strudwick, D (FA - NYR); Deron Quint, D (FA - Europe); Stephane Robidas, D (FA - DAL); Igor Radulov, RW (FA - Europe); Steve Passmore, G (FA - PHX); Steve McCarthy, D (T - VAN)

Key player still unsigned: Mikhail Yakubov
, C; Michael Leighton, G

Forwards: Only four teams scored fewer goals than the Blackhawks in 2003-04 (Washington, Anaheim, Columbus and Carolina), but the year off should help a number of 'Hawks forwards. Eric Daze had an extra year to heal after having back surgery and missing 63 games in 2003-04. Mark Bell, Tyler Arnason and Kyle Calder are all 25 or 26 and entering the prime years of their careers. Right wing Tuomo Ruutu is a rising star, but did not play in 2004-05 after refusing an assignment to the AHL. Yakubov, the 10th pick in the 2000 draft is on the verge of officially being declared a bust. Lapointe, Brown and Barnaby add grit but little else. The 'Hawks need another scorer (Teemu Selanne?) before they're going to instill any fear in opposing goaltenders.

Defensemen: Chicago lost its top two defensemen in terms of ice time in Berard and Poapst, and don't return a single defenseman who played more than 46 games for the Blackhawks in 2003-04. Newly acquired Aucoin is the perfect #2 defenseman, but he'll be forced into the role of a #1 defenseman in Chicago. Similarly, Spacek will be asked to do more than he is suited for. The Blackhawks boast a trio of top defensive prospects in Barker, Seabrook and Babchuk, at least one of whom should have a good shot at making the NHL roster when camp breaks (though probably not Barker), but as it stands now, the blueline in Chicago is shaky at best at both ends of the ice.

Goaltenders: The 'Bulin Wall blows into the Windy City for 2005-06 fresh off leading Tampa Bay to a Stanley Cup championship in 2003-04, and our prediction is that he will be the biggest bust of this year's free agent class. Is Khabibulin really $5.25m better than Thibault? Keep in mind that $5.25m is only about a BMW M3 Coupe less than what Bobby Clarke and the Flyers paid to land Peter Forsberg. Also keep in mind that the younger Thibault had a lower goals against average (2.37 to 2.47) and a higher save percentage (.915 to .911) than Khabibulin in 2002-03, the last full year the former played, while playing behind a significantly less talented defense. Don't get us wrong - Nikolai Khabibulin is a great goaltender. But not at a price that will pay him around $20,ooo less than Martin Brodeur and Dominik Hasek. Combined. Backing up Khabibulin will be the lanky Leighton, who is coming off a strong 2004-05 in the AHL, and at 24 years-old, already has more than 40 NHL games under his belt.

Bottom line: If there was a Stanley Cup of cool uniforms, the 'Hawks would be a contender year-in, year-out. But there isn't. And they're not. Chicago has more than 1/3 of the cap ($13.25m) committed to Khabibulin, Lapointe and Aucoin. By comparison, the Flyers spent less than that locking up Forsberg, Derian Hatcher, Kim Johnsson and Robert Esche. Which group would you rather have? It's nice to see the 'Hawks finally open the purse strings a little, but their spending hasn't exactly been wise. The 'Hawks gave up the second most goals in the League in 2003-04 (Pittsburgh gave up the most), and at least these signings (in addition to those of Brown and Dowd) should result in a move up the League rankings in that category, but there is not enough skill up front and the blueline will be too green to turn Chicago into a playoff team for 2005-06.

[For more on the Blackhawks new-found free-spending ways, check out Terry Frei's article here.]

Update (8/23): The Blackhawks signed veteran defenseman Todd Simpson. He will find a spot at the back of Chicago's top six blueliners, especially after Steve McCarthy was shipped to Vancouver yesterday.

Friday, August 19, 2005

Team Preview: Carolina Hurricanes

Key additions: Martin Gerber, G (T- ANA); Ray Whitney, LW (FA - DET); Cory Stillman, LW/RW (FA - TB); Glen Wesley, D (FA - TOR); Mike Commodore, D (T - CGY); Frantisek Kaberle, D (FA - ATL); Oleg Tverdovsky, D (FA - Europe); Derrick Walser, D (T - CBJ); Andrew Hutchinson, D (T - NSH); Cam Ward, G (D - 2002, 1-25)

Key losses:
Jeff O'Neill, RW/LW (T - TOR); Arturs Irbe, G (T - CBJ); Sean Hill, D (FA - FLA); Kevin Weekes, G (FA - NYR)

Key players still unsigned:
None

Forwards: The 'Canes were dead last in the NHL in goals per game last year and dead last in power play percentage. To remedy this woeful lack of offensive production, the team sent their most consistent goal scorer, the rugged O'Neill, to Toronto and replaced him with Stillman (who posted career best numbers in 2003-04 playing alongside the likes of Vinny Lecavalier, Brad Richards and Martin St. Louis in Tampa Bay) and Whitney (who posted disappointing numbers in his one year in Detroit). Well, there are no Lecavaliers, Richards or St. Louis in Carolina, and Whitney has only scored 69 goals since the beginning of the 2000-01 season (compared to O'Neill's 116). Neither does it seem that much help is on the way from within. Eric Staal is a legitimate franchise center and Erik Cole, Josef Vasicek and Justin Williams are all improving, but behind them there is very little to get excited about in the system insofar as offense is concerned (2004 fourth pick overall Andrew Ladd had a disappointing year in the AHL, but hopes are still high that he will emerge as a power forward).

Defensemen:
Hill lead all Carolina defensemen with 13 goals and 39 points last season before bolting for South Beach. The six new additions to the blueline listed above totalled 8 goals and 44 points in the NHL in 2003-04. Bret Hedican is a solid top four defenseman, but until defensive wunderkind Jack Johnson arrives, this patchwork crew is flat out bad.

Goaltenders:
Finally a bright spot. Starter Gerber has impressed in limited time in the NHL (2.13 GAA, .923 SV%), but hasn't had a significant workload with which to deal yet in his NHL career. Get ready for that significant workload, Marty. Backing up Gerber will be top prospect Ward, who successfully made the jump from juniors to the AHL last year, leading the League in save percentage (.937) and finishing fourth in goals against average (1.99). The 'Canes might be wise to pick up a cheap veteran backup for Gerber and give Ward another season in Lowell, as the latter's long-term development may be hampered by riding the pine in Raleigh.

Bottom line:
At the risk of stating the obvious, this is not a playoff team. The Capitals may be the dregs of the NHL, but the 'Canes aren't much better. What's worse, Carolina seems to be a team without direction. Some of the veteran acquisitions are real head-scratchers, and the future doesn't appear to be too bright either, with few quality prospects in the organization beyond the blue-chippers mentioned above. It looks like Carolina may be the Caps' most bitter rival in 2005-06, as the two teams battle to stay out of the Southeast cellar and dream of the top pick in the 2006 draft.

Team Preview: Calgary Flames

Key additions: Tony Amonte, LW/RW (FA - PHI); Roman Hamrlik, D (FA - NYI); Darren McCarty, RW (FA - DET); Daymond Langkow, C (T - PHX); Phillipe Sauve, G (FA - COL); Jason Wiemer, LW/C (FA - MIN); Craig MacDonald, C (FA - BOS); Zenith Komarniski, D (FA - CGY); Dion Phaneuf, D (D - 2003, 1/9); Eric Nystrom, LW (D - 2002, 1/10)

Key losses: Dean McAmmond
, LW (FA - STL); Martin Gelinas, LW (FA - FLA); Mike Comodore, D (T- CRL); Craig Conroy, C (FA - LA); Chris Clark, RW (T - WSH); Ville Nieminen, RW/LW (FA - NYR); Oleg Saprykin, LW (T - PHX); Dennis Gauthier, D (T - PHX); Roman Turek, G (FA - Europe); Toni Lydman, D (T - BUF)

Key players unsigned:
None

Forwards:
For a team that just went to the Stanley Cup Finals, there has been a fair amount of turnover and most of it has been up front. Gone are more than 70 goals from a team that only scored 200 in 2003-04. To make up for some of that lost production, the Flames brought in perennial 20-goal scorers Amonte and Langkow and will rely heavily on the theory that a chimp could rack up 50 points playing on a line with Jarome Iginla (no, that's not a dig at Chris Simon). In addition, right wing Chuck Kobasew must build on his success last year in the AHL this year in the NHL. Still, this team will struggle to score goals. But what the Flames lack in offensive production, they more than make up for in hustle and nastiness. With McCarty, Simon, Wiemer et. al., ventures into the corners to retrieve loose pucks will not be fun for opposing teams. At some point, however, the Flames will need to find more offense.

Defensemen:
Or will they? Calgary gave up the third fewest goals in 2003-04 (New Jersey and Dallas finished 1-2), and is stacked on the blueline, especially after adding another legitimate big-minutes defenseman in Hamrlik. One-to-six, this is one of the NHL's deepest defenses, if not the deepest. Jordan Leopold and Robyn Regehr are only getting better, Toni Lydman is solid, Rhett Warrener and Andrew Ference are nasty, and Phaneuf is another physical blueliner with a big shot who will get a chance this year in Calgary. The depth at defense is the Flames greatest team asset, and it would surprise no one to see one or more of the defensemen (Lydman?) moved for offensive help.

Goaltenders:
Miikka Kiprusoff is coming off a Vezina-caliber half-season in 2003-04 (38 games, 24-10-4, 1.69 GAA, .933 SV%) and stayed active in 2004-05, playing in Sweden. The challenge for Kiprusoff will be showing that he can perform at such a high level for an entire regular season. With the defense in front of him, that should be possible, but few goalies in the League have a slimmer margin of error with which to work, and that may eventually wear on Kiprusoff. Our bet is that it won't. Kiprusoff will be backed up by Sauve, who is coming off a disappointing year in the ECHL (yes, the ECHL).

Bottom line:
Great goaltending plus great defense plus great work ethic, grit and leadership equals a trip to the Finals. The Flames are sticking with that winning formula for 2005-06. Strange as it may sound, though, Calgary could have a tougher time getting back to the playoffs than making it to the Finals once there. The wide open style the League promises will emerge as a result of the new rule changes does not necessarily favor the Flames, a team that is better suited for the inevitable lower-scoring, tighter-checking playoffs. Look for the Flames to finish anywhere from fourth through ninth in the Western Conference, and then who knows?

Update (8/25): The Flames shipped Lydman to Buffalo for a third-round pick in next year's draft. The big upside to this deal from Calgary's perspective is that it frees up $1.9 million in salary.