Monday, June 09, 2008

2007-08 Rink Wrap Wrap

When we recapped David Steckel's season a week-and-a-half ago, it was the last of our 2007-08 Rink Wraps. Now all the votes have been counted (thanks for well over 8,000 of them), and we can discuss the results.

Here they are, in graphical form (click to enlarge):

Two notes. First, given that you rated players relative to their potential for the season, the fact that a guy like Quintin Laing finished with a better score than Alexander Semin doesn't mean that people think the former is better than the latter, just that Q did better relative to your expectations for his season. Second, since I asked that if a player more or less played as you expected he would, you should give him a 5 or a 6, anyone in the 5-6 range is represented in black in the graph, with those players who didn't meet expectations in red and those who exceeded expectations in green.

So what jumps out at you? Any surprises? With whose score do you most disagree?


Abhinav said...

This means that most of us had about 1/2 the team do better than we expected.

Does that say anything about our resultant team-performance? On the same scale, where does the team rank 1-10? What about Bouds?

Sorry to hijack the blog questioning, JP. I think the team gets a 6 for making the playoffs, and Bouds gets about a billion.

Anonymous said...

I'm surprised with Huet having such a high average. Sure his play was incredible, but it wasn't any different than how he was performing in Montreal for the past couple years.

JP said...

By all means.

To piggyback on that - what scores do you give GMGM, Bouds and the team overall?

I'd give GMGM a 7. Seems to have nailed it on Alzner, the three free agents were moderately successful, he pulled the trigger on Hanlon (though almost too late), had the faith to go with Bouds over a "name" (though the "interim" tag makes you wonder just how much faith there was organizationally at first), and of course the trade deadline was boffo (though he almost waited too long to get a 2nd line center after Nyls got hurt). Overall: 7. I'd buy 8, too.

Boudreau: 9. Unreal, though I'd have liked an improved PK and better preparation and adjustments earlier in the playoffs.

Team: 7. Once Boudreau took over, they played at around a 9 until the playoffs, but the first couple of games there and the beginning of the season knock 'em down a couple of pegs. Basically, I thought this team could contend for the Division and a playoff spot and they did.

JP said...

Oh, and the player's score I'm most surprised at is easily Semin. I'm shocked more people weren't disappointed with his regular season after a 38-goal 2006-07.

Joe said...

I think Erskine performed better than expectations. A number 7 defensemen used for fill in duty who brought a physical presents and scored a game-winner. What did you truly expect from the guy?

NS said...

Erskine is basically a blind bear on the ice.

Anonymous said...

I know I'm going to get ripped for this but I'm giving McPhee a 9.5 for what he did this season. Bringing in Boudreau may have been a no-brainer, but don't forget it was McPhee who signed Bouds to coach at Hershey after he had been dumped by Manchester in the AHL. The acquisitions of Feds, Huet and Cooke was masterful and without them we never get that incredible late season run. His FA pickups last summer proved successful, even if Nylander did get hurt. His drafting has improved tremendously as evidenced by the number of high-end prospects in the system (I can't wait to see Alzner). Team depth is better than ever and he actually delivered on his five year turnaround plan. Finally, he signed AO to a 13 year deal. The only reason I didn't give him a 10 is because he was too good of a friend to Hanlon and didn't fire him soon enough.

Anonymous said...

Semin's score was inflated because people were still giddy over his open ice hit on Staal and his newfound grit in the playoffs.

Anonymous said...

I'm surprised that Johnny's so low on the ranking. He didn't play much but he exceeded my expectations when he did.

It felt like he had a better set of games this season, especially when compared to Olie.

Unknown said...

GMGM was a game away from having an '8' be a '5,' though wasn't he?

Anonymous said...

I gave Semin a higher score than most because his performance at the end of the year made me believe one of two things. Either the ankle injury the first part of the season was holding him back or he just finally listened and grew up a little. While I always questioned media speculation regarding his attitude, in my opinion he just seemed to enjoy more this season. Saw him smile more, celebrate with his team more, stick up for his teammates, etc. I just think he grew more as a player in the latter part of this season than I expected. Sure his goals were down, but I will take fewer goals for a more effective team player.

~Mark said...

Clark's low score seems unreasonable to me. The guy was hurt most of the season. You have to give him at least a 5 just for trying to play through his issues.

Anonymous said...

I'm surprised Flash scored as high as he did.

Red Rover said...

Something is wrong with your chart. It says Ovechkin got a 9.55 instead of a 10.

Anonymous said...

A couple of observations: there are a number of guys who are definitely rated way too high (Jurcina [5.08]: the epitome of inconsistency; Gordon [6.24]: consitent defensive player who provided zilch offensively; Semin [6.51]: very slow start to the year becasue of injury) and too low (Pothier [4.56] and Clark [4.20]). Pothier was playing well before his injury and Clark shouldn't be rated because he played so little, i.e., incomplete should be an option.


Anonymous said...

it pains me to say this, but I'm surprised Kolzig didn't rank near or at the bottom. He is the only player who fell way short of my expectations.

It seemed like there was a very obvious fall-off in his game this year, one that I really wasn't expecting.

What were people expecting from Flash? We all know he is a bit too small and too slow--I don't see how his performance relative to what you expected is any worse than Kolzig's versus his expected play.

Anonymous said...

Here's a thought. Is OV too high? Yeah, great season. 10 in absolute terms, but really he was only slightly better than I expected. I would have given him an 8.

As for a lot of the others, they seem generally fair. The injuries should be at the bottom. I didn't expect Poti or Clark to miss virtually the entire season with injury. It doesn't mean they stunk, just that I expected more.

I think the only one I would put lower might be Juice. He was generally terrible. And, prior to this year, I was not a big Mike Green fan. Boy was I wrong. He probably gets my highest rating for really shocking me with his year.

Red Rover said...

" really he was only slightly better than I expected."

You just made my brain explode.

Anonymous said...

I think that Ovie is the victim of being so great. It is almost as if some people expect him to be so great that when he does not actually fly, bring World Peace, cure cancer, or tell us all the Meaning of Life they feel he fell short. I mean, come on, did anyone really think that at the beginning of the season that Ovie would be the first player in more than a decade to score 60 plus goals all while improving his plus minus that much? Besides, with Clark out of the line-up more than he was in, Ovie was essentially the Captain by default.

I did not expect him to win over so many Sid worshipers, I did not expect to attend any sold out games at Verizon Center, and I realistically did not expect to see more people in my neighborhood with Caps attire than Redskins attire in April.

I think the whole team gets credit for all of that, but Ovie led the way.

Anonymous said...

I can't believe we are bringing out the "Ovechkin was only slightly better than I expected" clown parade again, but I'm not going to waste my time again.

Semin - that rating is ridiculous. SIXTEEN assists and -18 in 63 games.

Anonymous said...

I'm with Bil - Kolzig being in the 5-6 range is nuts; I don't see how anyone could have expected Kolzig to perform as poorly as he did.

Personally I'd give McPhee a 7-8 on the year. I think he did a great job at the draft, with the FA signings and at the deadline, but then I actually think he's a pretty good general manager

Anonymous said...

I also agree with the comments regarding Johnson. I thought he played pretty well when he did play. He exceeded my expectations.

If getting a five is meeting expectations for the season, I am a little puzzled by Kolzig's rating. At the start of the season I did not expect that Olie would have this type of season. But maybe I was just being naive and/or expected too much from him.

Hooks Orpik said...

Semin ending on a high note (5 goals, 1 assist in last nine reg. season games and 3 goals, 5 assists in the seven playoff games) probably had something to do with him rating a little higher than expected.

Playing well and being fresh on folks minds got Semin a 6.51, while Chris Clark (who caught fire before getting hurt back in November) only rated a 4.20 on his lost season.

Anonymous said...

Hey Hooks, I've got a question.
If Orpik moves to another team, do you become a fan of his new team or do you stay with the Pens? I'm asking in all seriousness. BTW, what did you think about his hating Therrien?

Anonymous said...

In general, pretty good! I think Olie's a little high, since that implies that people's expectations were to have his wheels fall off. Clark and Nylander, I think, should have a DNF. Their injuries end up affecting the assessment of their play. That may be part of the project—assessing overall productivity—but it seems to me that on performance—how well they actually played—you'd want to separate the issue.

But still, overall, seems like a very reasonable curve.

Anonymous said...

I won't rehash the numerous snarky comments I made about Semin but suffice it to say, I think he underperformed, relative to my expectations, through most of the regular season and my score reflected that. He picked it up in the playoffs and WCs so let's hope he's morphed into a player who will actually earn his nearly $5M salary next season.

And, if we were to score on the basis of playoff performance, what would Kozlov be doing with a 6? I guess when you pull your customary disappearing act, that doesn't count for anything? Clearly he was scored on the basis of his overall season and +28 or whatever it was, counts for something.

If there's any justice, AO will be the first player to win the Ross, Richard, Pearson and Hart in the same year. How is that not exceeding expectations by a wide margin? I'm sort of incredulous he didn't get a 10 from every voter.

GMGM - 8
BB - 9
Team - 7

Hooks Orpik said...

borr4: I like Orpik and that will continue no matter who he signs with (unless it's Philly). I'm sure we've all had a favorite player move on. I'll probably follow Orpik's new team a little more closely, but my loyalties definitely won't be challenged when he plays against the Pens. I'll still pull for him every other night and hope he plays well.

As far as the reports from Canada go that Orpik, Staal and others don't like playing for Therrien --without having any direct quotes--don't put much worth in it. Orpik and Therrien aren't the closest of friends but they had a decent working relationship. Which is all a player and coach need. A lot of media outlets (especially ones outside of Pittsburgh) make to big a fuss about Therrien's handle in the room. Probably a lot stems from the gruff attitude/personality MT has.

Sorry JP and everyone for the treadjack....But hey, it's summer!

Anonymous said...

About Semin:

Dont forget he was a +2 in the playoffs, right behind team leader Backstrom at +3.

Anonymous said...

Yeah, it's my fault Ovechkin scored so low, but I gave my rationale earlier. But I think the overall grading reflects the phenomenon of what we saw most recently weighing more heavily than what we saw earlier. When the season started, I agreed with Ted that the rebuild was over and I fully expected this team to make the playoffs. So does the fact that they played great over the last several months outweigh the crap job that they pulled in the beginning? They made the playoffs, but if that was expected then the team overall should have scored a 6 (or so). Seems to me we've got some inflated grading on our hands. But if you ask me specifically who should be lowered, I'm torn outside of Semin, Kolzig and Jurcina.

Anonymous said...

I <3 Bouds! He totally changed the team into playoff material! Like, before Bruce, Backstrom was "that kid who didn't score a goal for ten games" and after Bruce he was "oh yeah, I've heard of him, he's a really good player!" And that REALLY means a lot to me.

Bouds: 9.5

GMGM did OK. I kind of ecpected better, but he did great in the draft, so


The team? Lot's of props for making the playoffs as three seeds, and forcing a game seven overtime. They had a slow start, but I'm to happy with the end results to be cought up with the time-of-the-blue-and-gold uniform.

Team: 8

Next year will freaking rock!