Tuesday, August 05, 2008

Fedorov And The 500-Goal Club

Over at FanHouse, I've taken a look at Sergei Fedorov's chances of joining the 500-goal club this coming season. Spoiler alert! He ain't gonna do it.

9 comments:

b.orr4 said...

Beg to differ. While it's not probable, it's still highly possible. Yeah, Fed's scoring has dropped off, but before coming to the Caps, his last three years were spent in Columbus. Ovie would have problems scoring for them. The last time he played for a team with a decent offense (the Ducks), he was a consistent 30 goal scorer. As we all know the Caps are loaded offensively and playing a full season on the PP and even strength, he's going to get a ton of good chances. And can you honestly say that if Chris Clarke can score 30 and Danius "Hands of Stone" Zubrus can be on pace for 30 while with the Caps, Federov can't reach that mark? I know Sergei is pushing 40, but so was Shannahan when he scored 29 and Selanne scored 48 when he was 37 years old and last year was on pace for 40. So will Federov reach 500? Maybe not. Can he? Most definitely.

JP said...

All good points, but his shots per game are WAY down since his 30-goal seasons (and on teams when he was expected to be a finisher, which isn't his role here), and his minutes will be fewer and different as well. As for getting out of C'bus, it's a net positive, for sure, but his numbers were strikingly similar in D.C. to those he put up in C'bus (as I noted over at FanHouse).

I think we can both agree that it will likely come down to his minutes and his role - if he displaces Backstrom or Kozzy on the top line, 28 goals is far more realistic than if he's centering the third line with Laich and Clark. Duh.

Of course he can do it. I just don't see it happening. And given his whiff when Ovie set him up in Game 7... (cheap shot, I know).

Anonymous said...

For reasons I can't fully explain, as Cs get older they shoot less.... Shanny & Selanne are wingers.

b.orr4 said...

Good point on the shots factor, but the question remains is that a function of age or the style of play in Columbus? When you consider that during Sergei's stay in C-Bus, the Blue Jackets ranked 24th, 29th and 25th in shots on goal, I think you can argue that noone shot much there. IMO, it will all come to down to his time on the power play.

JP said...

His SOG/game in C'bus was 1.88. In D.C. it was 1.89 (and that was with Nyls and Clark out of the lineup). His SOG/game has been declining each season since the lockout. I just don't see him taking enough shots to score 28 times. But here's hopin' he proves me wrong.

Stokley said...

Are these regular season goals or total goals? If the latter and we get a nice long playoff run, he could definitely do it.

JP said...

Regular season, Stokely.

bigonetimer said...

only a slight chance, which will depend heavily on what line he's centering. Could happen if he's with OV and Koz, not so much if he's with Fehr/Flash, etc.

bradley said...

The way I look at it, him scoring 30 this season would be either incredibly good for us, or incredibly bad, and not much in between. Either he's scoring that much because we've had an explosion and hit 500 goals as a team [give or take ; ) ] or he's scoring that much because Backstrom and/or Nylander and/or Semin (etc.) went down and now he's playing with Ovechkin all year as the only other scoring threat (see Clark, Chris and Zubrus, Dainius). Option A gets us the Cup, option B has us hanging on for dear life.

Maybe if he can come back for one more year after this though...