Tuesday, March 13, 2007

How Alex Ovechkin Is Going To Get To 50 Goals And Win The Rocket Richard Trophy

Here's the deal - Alex Ovechkin currently has 41 goals on the season. Vincent Lecavalier (46) and Dany Heatley (42) are the only players ahead of Ovechkin. AO and Vinny each has 12 games left, Heater has 13 (oooh... unlucky already).

Let's look at it game- by-game for AO:

  1. Boston - Alex has one goal in three games this season against the B's and three in seven for his career. He's always had trouble with Zdeno Chara, so maybe he doesn't score in this one.
  2. Toronto - Two goals in three games this year, seven in seven for his career. GOAL #42.
  3. Tampa - Four in six this year, nine in 14 for his career. GOAL #43.
  4. Buffalo - Two in two, four in six. In Buffalo. No goal.
  5. Carolina - Five in seven, eight in 15. No Ward, maybe no playoffs... GOAL #44.
  6. Montreal - Zero in three, two in seven. Is he due or does Andrei Markov have his number? The Habs goaltending has been atrocious, so we'll go with... GOAL #45.
  7. Pittsburgh - Zero in three, three in seven. Marquee matchup and... GOAL #46.
  8. Florida - Four in six, seven in 14. Florida's tough at home. No goal.
  9. Tampa - Four in six, nine in 14. When Alex sees the Bolts, fans see the red light. GOAL #47.
  10. Florida - Four in six, seven in 14. Back at the VC it's a different story... and GOAL #48.
  11. Atlanta - Seven in seven, 12 in 15. Pucks find their way in for AO against the Thrashers (ask Andy Sutton). GOAL #49.
  12. Buffalo - Two in two, four in six. In overtime, Alex boards Daniel Briere (who, come to think of it, probably won't even dress for this one) from behind to take the puck and races in on goal, does a spin-o-rama, is tripped from behind but somehow manages to wedge his stick in his skate blade and swings his leg to lift the puck over a sprawling Ty Conklin for... GOAL #50.
It could happen. And before you give me "but most of those previous numbers came with Dainius Zubrus in the lineup," I'd note that AO has nine points in seven games since that trade, including six goals - both better than his pre-trade pace (Dainius who-brus?).

There you have it - how AO gets to 50. Now on to perhaps the more difficult task- explaining how AO ends up with more goals than Lecavalier and Heatley [must... resist... utterly tasteless "maybe Vinny will catch a ride home one night with Dany" joke].

To begin with, of those three, Ovechkin's Caps face the worst combined goals against average (~3.06) the rest of the way (the Sens face an approximately 3.02 GAA and the Bolts face 2.97), so Alex faces the crappier goalies.

Assuming Alex gets to 50, Heatley would need eight goals in 13 games to tie AO's 50, his current pace would have him score ~7.9 goals the rest of the way, so he falls just shy with 49.

As for Lecavalier, how is he not going to score four goals in 12 games, especially with two games left against the Caps? Oh, Donald...


Anonymous said...

No multiple-goal games out of 12? Not with the way he's skated the last two outings. I say 51.

JP said...

Y'know, I thought about that after I posted. He has 7 multi-goal games so far this year, and that's one every ten games, so he would be due for at least one in the last dozen games.

Anonymous said...

He will finish with 48 goals. Don't set your heights too high -- you'll disappoint yourself.

JP said...

You set sites, not heights, pal.

Anonymous said...

Sorry, typo. You get the point. I'd rather be moderate with my expectations, personally, rather than hoping for a season like Crosby has had but then to watch him fail to match last years output.

JP said...

First of all, this post was pretty tongue-in-cheek. I'm not really predicting what Alex will do in each of the remaining games - that'd be silly.

More to the point, did someone make a rule that every other comment on this site has to be about Sidney Crosby? Jesus.

chad said...

I predict Lecavalier hits his 500th post this season against Brent Johnson.

There, I said it.

Anonymous said...

dude.... so far you're extremely off.

as a matter of fact, since this post AO is goalless

thanks a lot