Let's look at it game- by-game for AO:
- Boston - Alex has one goal in three games this season against the B's and three in seven for his career. He's always had trouble with Zdeno Chara, so maybe he doesn't score in this one.
- Toronto - Two goals in three games this year, seven in seven for his career. GOAL #42.
- Tampa - Four in six this year, nine in 14 for his career. GOAL #43.
- Buffalo - Two in two, four in six. In Buffalo. No goal.
- Carolina - Five in seven, eight in 15. No Ward, maybe no playoffs... GOAL #44.
- Montreal - Zero in three, two in seven. Is he due or does Andrei Markov have his number? The Habs goaltending has been atrocious, so we'll go with... GOAL #45.
- Pittsburgh - Zero in three, three in seven. Marquee matchup and... GOAL #46.
- Florida - Four in six, seven in 14. Florida's tough at home. No goal.
- Tampa - Four in six, nine in 14. When Alex sees the Bolts, fans see the red light. GOAL #47.
- Florida - Four in six, seven in 14. Back at the VC it's a different story... and GOAL #48.
- Atlanta - Seven in seven, 12 in 15. Pucks find their way in for AO against the Thrashers (ask Andy Sutton). GOAL #49.
- Buffalo - Two in two, four in six. In overtime, Alex boards Daniel Briere (who, come to think of it, probably won't even dress for this one) from behind to take the puck and races in on goal, does a spin-o-rama, is tripped from behind but somehow manages to wedge his stick in his skate blade and swings his leg to lift the puck over a sprawling Ty Conklin for... GOAL #50.
There you have it - how AO gets to 50. Now on to perhaps the more difficult task- explaining how AO ends up with more goals than Lecavalier and Heatley [must... resist... utterly tasteless "maybe Vinny will catch a ride home one night with Dany" joke].
To begin with, of those three, Ovechkin's Caps face the worst combined goals against average (~3.06) the rest of the way (the Sens face an approximately 3.02 GAA and the Bolts face 2.97), so Alex faces the crappier goalies.
Assuming Alex gets to 50, Heatley would need eight goals in 13 games to tie AO's 50, his current pace would have him score ~7.9 goals the rest of the way, so he falls just shy with 49.
As for Lecavalier, how is he not going to score four goals in 12 games, especially with two games left against the Caps? Oh, Donald...